09 March 2012

Bubble Watch: March 9, 2012 Edition

Thud!!!!  Brace yourselves for what you know is coming.  A loss to Minnesota last night has severely damaged NU's chances to make NCAAs.  It ain't over, but it is going to very important that many games fall NU's way tonight.  We're not above backing into Dayton so keep the dream alive!

Bracket Project matrix was updated again late last night.  29 brackets listed with a March 9 date which forms the basis for our Watch List (18 teams).

Watch List (# of brackets out of 29)
12 BYU (28) **
12 Xavier (27) $
12 Seton Hall (23) **
12 South Florida (22) **
12 Miami Fla (21) $
13 Washington (20) **
13 Drexel (15) **
Mississippi St (14) **
Tennessee (8) $
NU (6) **
NC State (5) $
Iona (5) **
Dayton (4) $
Mississippi (1) $
Oregon (1) **
Arizona (1) $
Central Fla (1) $

$ denotes game today
** denotes no more remaining games

Changes in Watch List
- California, Colorado St, Texas In
- Mississippi, Arizaona, Central Fla up to low bubble

Yesterday's Bubble Games Recap
- NU lost another heartbreaker.  Now out of the field for the first time in our bubble watches.
- Colorado St punched their ticket with a win over TCU
- Texas punched their ticket with a very nice win over Iowa St
- South Florida lost to ND in OT.  That OT loss is holding up better than NU's OT loss at least for now.
- Mississippi St lost bad game to Georgia but haven't been dinged as much as NU.
- Washington lost an ugly won to Oregon St but haven't been dinged as much as NU.
- Oregon suffered an ugly loss to Colorado.  They're NIT bound.
- Miami Fla beat a bad Georgia Tech team as expected.
- NC State took care of business against BC. 
- Cal won.

Today's Bubble Games (Bubble Team Win Probability %)

- NC State (36%) vs Virginia -- Wolfpack loss = NIT
- Mississippi (41%) vs Tennessee (59%) -- Vols loss = NIT and Ole Miss with work to do
- Miami Fla (45) vs Florida St --  Hurricane loss could not knock them below NU
- Dayton (50%) vs Xavier (50%) --  We'll toss the dice and hope that Xavier loss brings them down to NU's level and then Dayton loses next game (St Louis most likely) to knock them down to NU's level.
- Oregon St vs Arizona (62%) -- Wildcat loss = NIT
- Central Fla (11%) vs Memphis -- CF loss = NIT

Other Games of Interest Today
- Long Beach St (92%) vs UC Irvine -- No bid thefts is paramount.  We're all in on LBSU now.
- Cal -- we want them to win the Pac12.