02 March 2012

B1G Rematch Analysis and Io_a Game Implications

After the season was over last year we reviewed NU's performance in rematch games for intellectual curiosity.  We were reminded of this analysis with a crucial game upcoming against Io_a tomorrow.  The findings are from definitive, but they are interesting enough to dust off.

In a nutshell what we found is that when looking at overall Carmody Court Ratio ("CCR") efficiency statistics the losing team from the first game inevitably closed the CCR gap in the rematch.  Sometimes the gap was closed only marginally.  In other cases the gap was closed most of the way.  In several cases the gap swung the other way.  The NU-Io_a series fell into this last bucket -- an ominous sign for tomorrow's game.

Last year the first meeting was at Io_a.  As you may recall NU raced out of the gates and never looked back.  NU's overall CCR was 0.22 -- the best overall CCR for the entire B1G conference slate.   NU won the rematch, but Io_a hung tough for the entire game in Evanston with NU holding only a one or two possession lead for most of the second half.

This year NU used the 1-3-1 defense to completely discombobulate the Ha_keyes.  If history repeats itself tomorrow one can expect Io_a to have a much easier time against the 1-3-1 and give NU all it can handle.  We are especially nervous about this year's rematch because it is on the road and not at the Welsh.