02 March 2012

Bubble Watch: March 2, 2012 Edition

Bracket Project updated its matrix late last night.  Although there are now 105 brackets included in the matrix, just 18 of them were updated on March 1st or 2nd.  We have excluded from our analysis older brackets since so much bubble action took place on Leap Day.

Watch List (# of brackets out of 18)
11 West Virginia (17)
11 Texas (16)
12 Colorado St (16)
12 South Florida (16)
12 Connecticut (12)
12 NU (12)
12 Mississippi St (11)
12 Miami FL (11)
Xavier (10)
VCU (9)
Arizona (8)
+ Oregon (3)
Dayton (2)
St. Josephs (2)
NC State (1)

+ denotes win on March 1

Changes to Watch List
* Connecticut has dropped down from the field and onto bubble after a bad loss at Providence on Feb 28.
* NC State played itself back onto bubble bottom with a win over Miami Fla on Feb 29.
* Washington, BYU, and Cincinnati are all now unanimously in the NCAAs field.

Yesterday's Games Recap
Washington and Oregon won as expected. 

Today's Games
None but we still would like to see Harvard win at Columbia.

Bubble Notes and Analysis
* Even in ideal and unlikely scenario that conference tourneys result in zero bids taken by non-cannibalizing cinderellas there are three fewer seats at the NCAAs table than there are primary bubble teams.
* Big East has 10 teams in the field per the bracketologists.  Among those 10 teams Cincinnati, Seton Hall, West Virginia, South Florida and Connecticut still have work to do.  If there is any justice then one or two of these teams get left out.
* Atlantic 10 has 2 teams in the field.  Xavier is in prime bubble territory while Dayton and St. Joseph's are clinging to the bottom edge. 
* Pac 12 has 2 teams in the field.  Washington is in but has work to do, Arizona is in prime bubble territory, and Oregon is lingering near the bottom edge.
* Among the "smaller" conferences the Colonial is the biggest wildcard.  If Drexel and VCU make it to the conference finals then that league could have two bids.
* If NU wins at Io_a and in the first round of the B1G tourney then it's likely that NU will hold its current bubble position or even slightly improve upon it.  So long as it is not an extraordinary year for conference tourney cinderellas that should be just good enough for NU to make it to Dayton.