03 March 2012

Bubble Watch: March 3, 2012 Edition

Let's Get Ready To RUMBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!  Tons of bubble action on the last Saturday of the regular season.  NU is facing a tough battle at Io_a with a win necessary to stay on the bubble.

Bracket Project updated its matrix again yesterday.  32 of 104 brackets were updated as of March 2nd.  We'll go with those 32 for our Watch List (16 teams).

Watch List (# of brackets out of 32)
11 South Florida (32)!
11 West Virginia (31)!
11 Washington (30)*
12 Colorado St (30)*
12 Connecticut (29)*
12 Texas (28)*
12 Mississippi St (24)*
12 NU (18)*
12 Arizona (17)
Xavier (15)*
VCU (15)$
Miami Fla (11)*
Oregon (4)*
NC State (3)
Dayton (2)*
St. Josephs (1)

* denotes game today
! denotes bubble death match today
$ denotes conf tourney game today

Yesterday's Games Recap
None.  In a sign of how much we may need to sweat these next 8 days, Harvard won in OT over lowly Columbia.

Today's Games (Bubble Team Win Probability %)
NU (46%) at Io_a
West Virginia (45%) at So Fla (55%)
Washington (32%) at UCLA
Colorado St (63%) at Air Force
Pittsburgh at Connecticut (76%)
Texas (15%) at Kansas
Arkansas at Mississippi St (72%)
Charlotte at Xavier (81%)
Northeastern vs VCU (kenpom asleep at wheel)
Boston College at Miami Fla (94%)
Utah at Oregon (97%)
George Washington at Dayton (83%)

It doesn't shape up to be a good news day from the bubble with so many sizable favorites on paper.  NU and Washington have road challenges but real opportunities to gain some ground with wins.  WVU and So Fla winner will be in good shape and loser will need to make a little noise in Big East tourney. 

First priority is NU win.  After that we're keeping our fingers crossed that VCU somehow loses its quasi home game against Northeastern and that Colorado St continues to play poorly on the road at Air Force.