Bubble Watch: March 10, 2012 Edition

Selection Sunday is tomorrow!  Bracket Project matrix was updated again late last night.  67 brackets listed with a March 9 date which forms the basis for our Watch List (13 teams).  It is safe to assume that many of these brackets do not incorporate all of the game results last night.  Since many bubble teams lost yesterday it is likely NU's position is better than what is shown below.


Watch List (# of brackets out of 67)
12 South Florida (53)
12 - Miami Fla (49)
12 Seton Hall (49)
13 Drexel (44)
13 Washington (39)
Mississippi St (32)
- Tennessee (24)
+ NC State (20) $
Iona (17)
NU (14)
- Dayton (13)
- Oregon (7)
+ Arizona (6) $

$ denotes game today
- denotes loss yesterday
+ denotes win yesterday


Yesterday's Bubble Games Recap
- NC State beat Virginia -- Could be a backbreaker for NU
- Tennessee lost --  Bye Vols!
- Miami Fla lost -- Bye 'Canes?
- Dayton lost -- Bye Flyers!
- Arizona won -- Need autobid most likely.
- Central Fla lost -- Bye CF!
- Long Beach St -- Won! Keep it up Fightin' Dan Monsons!
- Cal -- Lost!  Raises prospects for a criminal 3 Pac12 bids


Today's Bubble Games
Arizona (61%) vs Colorado -- Winner in; Loser may be in but hopefully not.
NC State (18%) vs North Carolina -- Go Heels!
Mississippi (25%) vs Vanderbilt  -- Go Commodores!
UCSB vs Long Beach State (68%) -- Go LBSU!  No bid thefts!


Analysis
NU has about a 25%-35% shot of making the tourney based on collective wisdom.  NU is either 4th or 3rd out depending on how far Miami Fla has fallen.  We like our chances against Iona which gets NU to either 3rd or 2nd out.  We continue to be confused why S Florida and Miss St are outclassing NU.  NC State could drop if they lose to UNC.  Seton Hall is a no brainer below NU in our opinion, and Drexel could go either way.

It's going to be close, and we'll be sweating it on Selection Sunday.  For the first time.