05 March 2012

Bubble Watch: March 5, 2012 Edition

We can't tell you how impressed we are with the effort and devotion that Bracket Project has given to keeping its matrix up-to-date.  The matrix was updated yet again this morning with 29 brackets listed with a March 5 date.  We'll go with those 29 for our Watch List (18 teams).

Watch List (# of brackets out of 29)
11 California (28)
11 Washington (28)
11 BYU (27)
12 Mississippi St (26)
12 Xavier (23)
12 NU (22)
12 Seton Hall (21)
12 South Florida (21)
12 Texas (21)
VCU (15) $
Miami Fla (13)
Oregon (6)
Iona (4) **
Dayton (3)
Tennessee (3)
St Joseph's (2)
Arizona (1)
NC State (1)

$ denotes conf tourney game today
** no more remaining games

Changes in Watch List
- At least one bracketologist (Rivals) now sees Cal out of the field after losing yesterday to Stanford.
- Iona is now on low bubble after losing to Loyola-Maryland in the Metro Atlantic tourney semis.
- St Josephs is back on low bubble after some more bracketologist returns with some Hawk-love were updated since yesterday.

Yesterday's Games Recap
- Arizona lost an ugly one to Arizona State and will need to win Pac12 tourney to go dancing.
- NC State scored the minor upset at VaTech but bracketologists weren't impressed.  We're not sure why not, but we ain't complaining.
- VCU hung on against GMU and advanced to the Colonial tourney finals against Drexel
- Creighton won in OT and preserved an at large bid for bubble teams.  We love us some BJs!

Today's Games (Bubble Team Win Probability %)
Drexel (46%) "at" VCU (54%) - Colonial Finals
Western Illinois vs Oral Roberts (75%) - Summit Semis

We want Drexel to win.  We included Oral Roberts since there is the ever slightest chance they could get an at-large bid if they lose a close game in the Summit tourney finals.  So cheer on Western Illinois. 

Since there is not much bubble action we recommend tuning in Gonzaga vs St Mary's since it's a good game.  You can also make it into a drinking game.  Drink whenever Kyle Rowley is seen on the tube (bench or otherwise).  If the announcers mention that he went to NU then drink twice.  If they mention that NU is on the bubble then drink thrice.  If they mention NU has never been to the NCAAs then shotgun a beer.