It's that time of the year!

2011-12 Wildcat basketball is in the air. None too soon, we say, as the football team's season has quickly gone down the drain, and most NU fanatics are in desperate need to latch onto something not so depressing. On a related note, we wonder when LTP is going to post a referendum poll on Fitz? He wasn't too shy about putting Carmody's neck out there. It would seem to us appropriate to make the same distasteful poll on Fitz seeing that the football program has regressed under Fitz whereas the basketball program under Carmody is at all time modern era heights.

Enough about the football train wreck -- let's move on to cheerier topics -- NUs impending popping of its NCAAs cherry. The scuttlebutt is that Marco is much improved -- his exploits on the England national team this summer actually provides some basis for this wishful thinking. The frosh guards, per scout.com early practice report, are coming along nicely. We are skeptical but hope for one to emerge during non-conf season as grasping the Carmody intricacies. Luka is much improved, which smacks of purple koolaid, but we are inclined to drink that koolaid as he played pretty well at the very end of last season and he is a fifth year senior. [thanks for the input Carmody Courters but our point still stands -- it was late and our copy editor was distracted by Da Bears running roughshod over the vikes]

Two question marks are JerShon and Drew. These two are next tier type recruits for NU with their athleticism and bball IQ. Cobb was slowed by injury last year, and we love his upside. To be frank, we expected more from Crawford last year. Will he break out of his soph slump and show improved decision making and a better ball handle? If those two step up their games, and Shurna remains healthy, then there is no doubt NU breaks out the dancing shoes in March.

Lastly, the Welsh court got a makeover with fan input. We opted to decline participation as a matter of principle since none of the options had "Carmody court" emblazoned into the hardwood. For shame! Just as well that we didn't add our two cents because the AD went with an audible and chose none of the above for it's enwhitened and purple stained court. So long as the court looks purple on TV then we begrudgingly nod our heads in approval for this incomplete floor space.

UConn smothers Butler in snooze fest

Zzzzzzzzzzz. CBS must have been terribly disappointed by the showcase game of this year's March Madness. UConn's dogged defense combined with Butler's utter ineptitude to shoot a ball through a small orange cylinder en route to Jim Calhoun's third championship.

What a shame that a dislikable man like Calhoun got to celebrate his ill-gotten title while Brad Stevens and his undermanned, large-hearted squad sat in the bowels of Reliant Stadium to ponder through tears the whatifs for a second straight year on championship night. There is no justice in the real world.

In the end UConn managed to salvage some honor for the big least while the less heralded teams in Butler and VCU demonstrated once again that good basketball is played outside the limited windows afforded by the ESPNs and CBSs of the broadcasting world. No conference really separated itself through play in the NCAAs nor could the NIT be used to corrobate any partisan arguments as Witchita St passed through that bracket like a hot knife through butter to the NIT title.

So that closes another chapter of men's college basketball. For Northwestern it was a season of what ifs. Northwestern had an NCAAs-worthy team this year but for the injury bug hamstringing the campaign. Next year the big question is how will Northwestern withstand the significant loss of its iron man and Mr Everything point guard Juice Thompson. It won't be easy.

The glass half full types can point to an improving Alex Marcotullio which is overblown but still provides some basis for hope. There is also the prospect of a healthy JerShon Cobb who has a smooth game but has to grow his game through improved decision making and three point shooting if the major downside of Juice's absence is to be mitigated. Finally there are two PG recruits coming into the fold this fall in local favorite David Sobolewski and Trey Demps.

It is difficult to say what the two freshman will bring to the table given differences between the high school and Big Ten level. Demps looks to have an explosiveness to his game that could give NU an extra dimension next year so long as he is able of picking up NU's nuanced offense and defense which is no small task. Sobolewski looks to be a facilitator who would be a capable man off the bench to hold the line while others get a blow.

Aside from avoiding more major injuries the five hole is the other key to success next season. Luka gets too little credit for improvements to his game, and we fully expect his game to take another step forward next year in his senior season. Anything we get from Davide is gravy, and if this year is any indication there should be at least a handful of games in which he steps into the spotlight.

A hearty thanks from carmodycourt to Juice, Mike Cappoci, Jeff Ryan, and Ivan Peljusic. You have been great representatives of Northwestern University which is something that is often overlooked but is much appreciated by your fellow students and alumni. Best of luck in the future and put that Northwestern degree to good use!

MSG hopes go up in smoke

The Wazzus decided that their starting center, Casto, would not be suspended for tonight's game. It seems they took the Ohio State take on collegiate athletics and copped out that they would wait to see how his pot possession case played out before passing judgment. Whatever. Game on.

Turns out they needed Casto as NU forced the cougs to OT even with him in the starting lineup. In our view NU played a brilliant game. They master planned against future NBA 1st rounder Klay Thompson and largely marginalized his impact on the game. The Wazzus effectively game planned to double Juice and get us out of a rhythm offensively which helped them build a 14 point first half lead. To Coach Carmody's credit, NU adjusted on the fly and closed the gap to seven by halftime.

NU stormed out of the second half gates to quickly close the gap and even manage a small lead. NU would quickly relinquish the lead and stay within a possession or two until ultimately closing the gap by the end of regulation. Oh there was some drama at the end of regulation, but we are sure that will be highlights by others so google it.

To us, and we hate to lay the blame on any one player because it is grossly unfair, Shurna's poor shooting from distance cost us this game. 2-10 with most of the looks open is well below what we'd expect from any shooter let alone Shurna. We are not sure if it was the ankle or just an off night. Regardless with his struggles NU did not have the punch to take out the Wazzus.

It was a fun season even though it fell short of expectations due to Shurna's ankle. Our admiration and respect for Juice Thompson grew even more this season which is saying something because he was our MVP last year. Thanks for the memories fellas.

Class participation time

Raise your hand if you know...

the town where Washington State University is located?
approximately where Pullman WA is on a map (without cheating)?
the name of Washington State's men's basketball coach?
the Washington State nickname?
the name of the Washington State mascot?

If you raised your hand...

zero times then consider yourself typical.
1x-2x then you are a knowledgeable fan of collegiate athletics.
3x-4x then you are a knowledgeable fan and have spent too much time studying US maps.
5x then either you're a liar or you need to get out more.

The point of this exercise is to demean the "wazzu's"/"cougs". Petty? Yes. Easy to do? Absolutely. Funny? Our Seattle beat reporter found a 4 to 1 like/dislike ratio which just so happens to be ratio of U "Dub" alums to non-alums in the Emerald City.

Did ya know that Tony Bennett, son of former Wisconsin coach Dick Bennett, used to coach the Wazzus? Did ya know that Tony, after leading the Wazzus to a Sweet 16 game a few years ago, hightailed it out of town ASAP for the ACC also-ran Wahoos of Virginia? And of course anyone who has stepped on Northwestern's campus knows all about WAMU.

Wazzu. Wahoo. WAMU. Look at that cosmic connection! Freaky! Maybe life is predestined after all. Time to smoke some dope and philosophize about it. Too bad we can't make it out to east bum fock Washington for the game as we understand that the Wazzu basketball team has a good dope dealer.

As an aside what the fock is that dumb Carmody poll still doing up on LTP? And fire Carmody or give him one more year are the only options given? What a douche.

Game time tonight is 10PM E-town time on the deuce. Deuce/douche. See what we did there? We're poets and didn't even know its.

Second round NCAAs summary

Expected. Actual
BE 4-3. 2-5**
B10 3-2. 2-3
B12 2-1. 1-2
SEC 2-0. 2-0
PAC 0-3. 1-2
ACC 2-1. 3-0
MWC 2-0. 2-0
A10 1-1. 1-1
COL 0-2. 1-1
HOR 0-1 1-0

** 0-3 against non-big LEAST teams.

Winners:
Any conference that matched up with the big LEAST. Colonial.

Losers:
big LEAST, Big Ten (unfortunate to not have any games against big LEAST)

Favorite teams so far:
VCU. Richmond.

Most impressive teams so far:
OSU. VCU. BYU.

Favorite moment:
Sir Charles railing on big LEAST in front of Pitino. No halftime coverage in R32 from Crean. Butler/the Pitts ending. FSU blowing out ND.

Least favorite moment:
Morris missing open 6 footer in the lane to send Michigan-Duke game into OT. Make up 5 second call at end of Texas-zona game that allowed the miracle and one shot for zona's win.

Key takeaway (other than big LEAST was uberoverrated):
10 conferences still alive in S16. Wow!

Big Feast

Eleven big LEAST teams entered the first weekend of the NCAAs. Two teams remain. It was a bloodbath for the big LEAST teams as sharks from other conferences FEASTED on them one at a time. Things were so bad for the big LEAST that the only way UConn and Marquette survived was by cannibalizing Cincy and Syrexcuse. San Diego St and UNC must be licking their chops for their sweet 16 match ups against these overrated chumps.

Simply put this was the biggest conference flop in the history of the NCAAs. TOO F!CKING FUNNY!!!!!

First round NCAAs summary

Expected Actual

BE 9-2. 7-4
B10 4-3. 5-2
B12 4-1 3-2
SEC 3-2. 2-3
PAC 3-1. 3-1
ACC 2-2. 3-1
MWC 3-0. 2-1
A10 2-1. 2-1
COL 1-2. 2-1
HOR 1-0. 1-0

Really only one conference has egg on its face through round 1 -- the overrated big least. We'll know more about the other conferences by the time the sweet 16 is set.

NU dominates BoCo on the road, enters uncharted territory

BC was a bubble team? They look poorly coached especially on defense. Hellz- NU looked to be a much better defensive team.

Pretty much everyone played well in this game for NU. Marcotullio picked it up where he's left off the past couple games with a missed wide open layup and bricking open treys, but he righted the ship and played a solid game overall. Shurna and Juice were who they are which is to say they were difference makers. Crawford had a good game with his shot falling early on. Mirkovic had his best road game ever.

We wonder if LTP is now having second thoughts about calling for Carmody's head? If not then he should. Either way one thing is clear--he should stick to covering NU football.

Will talking heads get it right this year?

Every year the talking heads point to conference W-L records in the NCAAs to determine which conferences are under-performing or over-performing. Gross win totals for a conference are all well and good, but if you're talking relative to expectations, which is inferred by under- or over-performance then most of these folks fail to take into account expectations in said analysis.

Under the fair assumption that seeds were appropriate here is how conferences which have at least one projected first round winner are expected to perform during the first round (sorted by number of bids, then by number of wins):

BE 9-2
B10 4-3
B12 4-1
SEC 3-2
PAC 3-1
ACC 2-2
MWC 3-0
A10 2-1
COL 1-2
HOR 1-0

So there you have it. On Thursday there were 3 upsets out of 16 games. BE has already been dinged twice so Marquette (11) and Villanova (9) will have to pull off the mild upsets to rescue the BE's reputation. The other upset was Richmond over Vandy so Georgia (10) will have to pull off the mild upset over Washington to restore the SEC's honor.

We'll give a recap after the first round results to discuss which conferences are over- and under-performing.

Please tells us that this CBS crew is temporary

Seth Davis? Tom Crean and his annoying scratchy voice? Boring Steve Smith? Ugh!!!!!!! Kill. Us. Now.

That bar is sooooooo low we would gladly watch Sir Charles and Kenny Smith who normally cover the NBA but have been roped into truTV's studio.

Wisky cruises, quiets naysayers

There was mucho chattero by los talking heados about how Wisconsin was ripe for an upset against a gamely Belmont squad. Say what?

Jordan Taylor proved why he was a first team All Big Ten guard in a guard dominant league. Bo Ryan proved once again he is a darn good coach as his team controlled this game from start to finish. Josh Gasser showed freshman nerves on the big stage. Gasser along with Nankavil really stunk up the joint. If it weren't for these two the margin at half would have been 15+.

Waaaay OT: MSU team photo 1990

So we're watching TruTV and they flash this photo up of MSU's 1990 team photo because Tom Crean and Steve Smith, who are both on the broadcast, are both in the photo. My lord does Crean look like a pompous young punk. And Izzo! The dude had a full head of hair back then!!!!

NU 70 UWM 61

The Fighting Ed McCants couldn't handle the 1-3-1. How a team led by a coach who won league honors couldn't solve the riddle is beyond us. Those must be some bad coaches up there in the Ho-ri-zon, except Brad Stevens who needed to blitz the league yet again to garner coach of the year honors.

Anywho. The UWMers couldn't buy an open trey until it was too little, too late. NU probably would've handled the green budgies had they solved he 1-3-1, but the Wildcats kept their powder dry.

John Shurna and Juice Thompson led the charge in the scoring department, and Luka Mirkovic had a nice game on defense and distributing the ball. NU continues to miss JerShon Cobb. We really don't understand the love that folks shower on Alex Marcotullio. The guy shot 3-12 / 3-9 from the field as we pulled our hair out on repeated missed bunnies and repeated missed WIDE OPEN looks from distance. Craig Moore he is not. Yes he had three assists but he also had three aggravating turnovers on ill advised passes. Why is Luka raked over the coals even when he plays ok but folks sing Alex's praises when he plays poorly? Life ain't fair.

Next up is Boston College. These losers lost to Yale. At home. Fock them and their Big East pedigree. Huh? Oh yeah, ACC. Even worse. NU should be a couple of points the dog in this because somehow they are seeded higher. All the better when NU hands their arse to them.

With the win at BoCo NU will make the 20 game plateau. Better late than never? Meh.

Good news, bad news

No preview forthcoming. We are putting the student back in stud ent (oy, awful Tolkien geek humor) and have focused on finals. That is the bad news for you anxiously awaiting our pearls of wisdom.

The good news is that the usual suspects (sip, ccb, media outlets) have it covered. Check 'em out and give them some additional clicks so they can earn some more pennies from advertisers and inch their way closer to the super groovy ipad2.

Near miss against OSU, NIT home game reward

So NU gave OSU its stiffest competition in Indy, pushing the Buckeyes to OT before succumbing to Jared Sullinger and his indomitable will. Credit John Shurna for showing us what we have been missing most of the Big Ten season. Credit also goes to Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. Yes, their box score was nothing to write home about, but the box score doesn't reflect, at least directly, the stellar work they did in bodying up Sullinger. The cumulative tally of their unsung efforts can be seen in Sullinger's woeful shooting from the field.

NU really missed JerShon Cobb in this game. Alex Marcotullio, thrust into a starting role in Cobb's absence, really struggled on both ends of the court. On offense, for someone billed as a bomber, Alex misses more than his fair share of open looks from downtown. On defense, he had too many breakdowns which gave OSU wide open looks. Diebler also successfully drove to the hole a couple of times against Marcotullio. Not good.

But onward and upward as they say. NU is the lone Big Ten rep in the NIT as seven brethren are bound for the NCAAs and Minnesota was wisely left out in the cold by the NIT. NU actually gets to host a game against UW-Milwaukee, a team we know very little about despite their proximity to Etown. We have a few days to bone up on the UWMers so fret not Carmody Courters. We will have your back with the definitive pre game rundown.

For now it's a hearty congrats to Juice, Mike, Ivan, and Jeff. One more game at the Welsh and a third straight NIT. Not what you dreamt of this offseason, but not all that bad given how the season played out.

On Carmody and winningest senior class

FACT: Juice Thompson will leave Northwestern as the winningest player in history.

QUESTION: Has a coach ever been fired when the above is true?

We don't know the answer, but we suspect that, outside some kind of scandal, few if any coaches have been fired under such circumstances since it is a clear indication that the coach has a program on the rise. This suggests that firing Carmody would go against a precedent that inherently adjusts in some way the differences across programs.

Furthermore it is more than likely that John Shurna et al will break this winningest mark next year. Is this a sign of a program that has maxed out under a coach or even is pointed downward as NU blogger LTP has suggested? No!

As an aside we've seen arguments for firing Carmody on the basis of his recruiting. We agree that recruiting is paramount to a program's success, but we wonder how grounded in reality the criticism of Carmody's recruiting is. From our vantage point, NU's roster is as stacked with talent as it has been in DECADES. That says to us that Carmody is recruiting as well as can be reasonably expected at NU. Until something fundamental changes with the program, only coaches who can squeeze water out of a rock could do measurably better than what we're seeing on the recruiting front these days.

In short we feel that Carmody has the program on the rise and is doing a fine job within the context of NU's specific history. There is no reason to lock him up to a long term deal, but to fire him at this point would be placing a blind eye to the context in which he has been toiling over the past decade or so.

NU takes care of business, matches 09-10 conference record

NU did what they should have done up at the barn. Namely defeat a mediocre Minnesota squad. It was a new cast of heroes on senior day--the Italian Stallions from greater Detroit. Juice Thompson came up big in the second half which--shock--is when NU made its run.

At 17-12 NU's magic number for the NCAAs stands at three. That translates into NU smashing through its B10 tourney glass ceiling to make not just Saturday's semis but the final game. If NU defies the odds and makes it to Sunday you have to know the folks in Indianapolis will be watching the results with much intent.

To get there NU must first defeat the goofers again. Doable? Check.

Next up is rested OSU. We do think Carmody has shown that he can coach up his guys to compete against the athletically superior bugeyes. Doable? As odd it sounds, we like NU's chances better against OSU than PSU. Which admittedly is not saying a whole heck of a lot. But it would not shock us nearly as much as pretty much all but the biggest purple koolade drinkers.

The Saturday game with NCAAs hopes on the line would be against the winner of the #4/5 game. It looks like that will be either Illinois or Michigan State. Neither of those teams are unbeatable and their motivation would be less than NU's with an NCAAs bid already sewn up. Doable? If NU makes it this far, a resounding YES!!!!!!

The clincher on Sunday would be against either Wisconsin or Purdue in all likelihood. Wisconsin is all but unbeatable for NU so we would hope Painter gets his squad to Sunday somehow. Doable? We have a hard seeing the magic carpet ride leading to an automatic berth, though there is a slim chance against the boilers.

Presidents Day Big Ten Power Rankings

Much has happened since our last power ranking from MLK day. So let's get to it.


1. Ohio State. Lost a couple on the road to fellow elite. It happens. (no change)
2. Wisconsin. Final Four in the offing? (+1)
3. Purdue. Imagine if they had Robbie Hummel. (-1)
4. Illinois. Enigmatic. (n/c)
5. Michigan state. Lucas is baaaack (n/c)
6. Michigan. Beilein on hot seat? Ridiculous! (+2)
7. Northwestern. Shurna is baaack. (n/c)
8. Minnesota. No point guard=first round NCAAs exit (-2)
9. Penn State. Too little, too late. (no change)
10. Iowa. Juco PG is a baller (+1)
11. Indiana. Who's your daddy! (-1)

NU sweeps Indiana, NCAAs dreams alive

Despite the Big Ten schedule makers putting Northwestern in a difficult situation the Wildcats defied the modest odds and won at Bloomington on Sunday. That puts NU's magic number at 4 and keeps open the possibility that NU could still play its way into the NCAAs without winning the Big Ten Tournament.

Next up is the Penn State Ninny Lions who visit the Welsh on Thursday. The Ninnies are Northwestern's nemesis so we have to think NU is the underdog in this game despite the fact that kenpom.com, sagarin, vegas, et al say otherwise.

We continue to hold out hope for a dramatic last ditch run to the NCAAs simply because John Shurna is back (or at least close) to where he was before his string of injuries. We know Coach Carmody isn't exactly Vince Lombardi, but hopefully he has enough sense to point to Johnny's return to form as reason to believe that this team can do it if they take it one game at a time.

That starts with avenging an ugly loss at Penn State (among other losses to our bugaboo). The game is on ESPN2 which should help make the crowd electric. Make it so.

On NCAAs -- finally a glimmer of hope

So Northwestern defeated Iowa to raise its record to 5-9 in the Big Ten and 15-10 overall. That puts NU's magic number at 5. With only four regular season games left you don't need to be a math whiz to realize that NU has no margin for error to make the NCAAs bubble. It's either:

* win out (including an improbable win at the Kohl--kenpom.com puts the odds at less than 10%) and win a first round Big Ten Tourney game; or

* win 3/4 and do something unprecedented--win twice in the Big Ten Tourney. Assuming a loss at the Kohl the biggest hurdle is today's two day turnaround game at Indiana--who has a week of rest and prep--thank you very much Big Ten; or

* hold serve and win just the home games against Penn State and Minnesota (NU currently favored in both) and make an even deeper run to the finals of the Big Ten Tournament; or

* fuggedabout the regular season and simply win the Big Ten Tourney.

You know we've been pretty pessimistic about NU's prospects ever since NU lost up at Minnesota. Part of that pessimism was rooted in our view that Minnesota without Al Nolen is an NCAA bubble type team. Part of it was the lingering ankle issues for Johnny Shurna and the newly suffered concussion (thank you Ralph Sampson Jr).

Well Shurna finally looked like himself against Iowa. He was knocking down bombs, throwing it down, smiling again. While the odds are clearly stacked against Northwestern making the NCAAs at this late juncture, at least Shurna appears healthy again which to us gives us at least some basis for holding out some faint hope that the NCAAs dream isn't completely dead.

We'll know more after a big game at Bloomington tonight. Indiana is shorthanded and has shown susceptibility to losing at home to lower rung Big Ten teams (Iowa). It is possible NU wins this game though kenpom.com puts the odds of it happening at only 35%. Those odds may be a bit low based on NU's results over 13 Big Ten games with Shurna nursing injuries and Indiana's depleted roster.

NU is capable of winning this game. Make it so.

From the "fans being fans" department

So our mouth was agape when, in the aftermath of NU's obliteration of Iowa at the Carver last month, redbirdhawk wrote something we never thought we'd read about a Northwestern team.

Flash forward to the aftermath of NU's narrow victory over Iowa on Thursday. Now catfan5's post on Lifting Program:

"Our team really needs to join this century and develop a good program. Iowa was physically bigger. You could see the visible difference in their arms. The only player on our team who has any size is Capaocci (sic), but he is small compared to other teams. The lack of girth/strength certainly hurts us on the boards."

Not that so much we disagree with catfan5. It's the juxtaposition which is amusing. Just goes to show the old saying about opinions and assholes rings true.

Second trimester report card

So NU got a solid "C" for the first trimester of Big Ten results. How did NU fare in the second trimester now that another six games are in the books?

Egg
Projected: 4-1
1st Trimester: 1-0 (Indiana)
2nd Trimester: 1-0 (Michigan)
Difference: 2-1 (Iowa, Penn St, Minnesota)

Low Hanging Fruit
Projected: 2-1
1st Trimester: 1-0 (at Iowa)
2nd Trimester: 0-1 (at Michigan)
Difference: 1-0 (at Penn St)

Bling
Projected: 2-2
1st Trimester: 0-1 (Michigan St)
2nd Trimester: 1-1 (W: Illinois, L: Wisconsin)
Difference: 1-0 (at Indiana)

Wheaties
Projected: 1-5
1st Trimester: 0-3 (at Purdue, at Illinois, at Michigan St)
2nd Trimester: 0-2 (Ohio St, at Minnesota)
Difference: 1-0 (at Wisconsin)

Analysis
2nd Trimester Grade: D+

NU picked up some bling at long last, and NU was oh so close to notching that elusive Wheaties game against Ohio State. NU also nearly picked up that low hanging fruit in Ann Arbor but couldn't quite complete the comeback. Had either of those two losses come out differently things would have a much better look for Northwestern's NCAA dreams. Well it didn't and now NU is up against it.

Technically NU hasn't play itself out of 9-9 yet. In each category NU can make the target or even exceed it. To make the target the path of "least resistance" would be for NU to sweep the egg home games and win 2 of 3 road games at PSU, Indiana and Wisconsin. That's a very tall order for a team that is just 4-8 in conference so far and would be worthy of an A grade for the third trimester.

We would be more optimistic about acing third trimester if John Shurna were healthy. Instead of slowly recovering from his ankle sprain Shurna has gotten even more dinged up after suffering a concussion and now a hurt wrist.

Where is Mr Miyagi when you need him? NU is need of a miraculous crane kick right about now.

Two pivotal road games this week

A close loss to Ohio State and a win against Illinois on CBS at the Welsh has hearkened back talk of NCAAs among the Wildcat faithful. We're all about optimism around here, but this talk is really getting the cart before the horse.

NU currently has a 4-7 conference record with a likely loss at the Kohl looming large. Under our running assumption that 9-9 gets NU onto the bubble NU must somehow go 5-1 in its games outside of Cheeseland. That is some pretty thin ice we be skating.

This week will go long a way in determining whether NU's NCAAs dreams are upgraded off of life support or if they are deep sixed. NU has two road games starting with a game at the Crisler tonight and another one at the BJ this weekend. NU is installed as a 2.5 point dog against Michigan and is projected to be a slight underdog at Penn State.

* Two losses and NU fans will have to pin long shot hopes on winning the BTT.

* Two wins and NU stands at 6-7 with 9-9 a real possibility.

* A split and the margin for error is nil.

NU has had Wolfies' number of late while the Ninny Lions have had NU's number. If NU is to achieve at least a split this week then it best put on a good effort tonight. Make it so.

NU's magic number: 6

NU hosts #1 OSU, Shurna out with concussion

NU has officially gone from the frying pan and into the fryer. Barring an upset of epic proportions the NCAAs dream will have to be earned in the Big Ten Tournament. An NIT bid may even be in jeopardy unless NU can continue to have its way against the lower tier of the Big Ten.

Sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Just like football redux

As a footnote for most Chicagoans and Wisconsinites who had their eyes set on a stadium about a dozen miles south from Evanston along the lake, NU and the Badgers locked horns on the hard court this past Sunday. Just as well. NU got thumped by a grind 'em up offense and a ball hawking, hard nosed defense. Yup, just like football!

In addition to teams with brawny and athletic bigs, you can add teams that protect the ball to the "do not play" list for NU basketball. This one was ugly and vaguely reminiscent of our now partially repressed memories of the game in Shampoo-Banana, save for the immediate onslaught from the opening tip. Against Wisconsin NU made a game of it for the first 10 minutes or so before they wilted under the relentless pressure from Bo Ryan's team.

Enough about that. On to our next game up at McDonald's Arena, errr.... the Barn against the Gophers. Al Nolen is out, and we all know from earlier this season that he is the straw that stirs their drink. If NU is the team we think they are then they will go out and win this game and quiet the naysayers at least until Jared Sullinger and the #1 Buckeyes bulldoze their way through Evanston.

Make it so.

Addendum: a wrinkle to our 20 win threshold

An astute point was raised by "jonesingcat" in response to our post from earlier today that NU is on track to make NCAAs. That is that imbalanced schedules could throw a monkey wrench into our simplified view of Northwestern's NCAAs chances.

Due to the Big Ten's imbalanced schedule NU plays only once what are arguably the top two teams in the Big Ten (Ohio State and Purdue). This scheduling quirk undermines somewhat Northwestern's ability to piggyback off of the Big Ten's overall conference strength. Therefore we acknowledge that a 9-9 Big Ten record for NU may in fact not be enough to make the NCAAs as it would be accomplished against a somewhat weaker Big Ten conference schedule than implied by overall conference strength.

We will take jonesingcat's point one step further. The Big Ten is not the only conference with an imbalanced schedule. In fact most of the conferences have imbalanced schedules. In converse to NU's favorable conference schedule situation there could be a team or three from the Big East etc... with relatively strong conference schedules that could look favorable to the selection committee despite conference records which on the surface appear unworthy of an invitation to the Big Dance.

Since we are already scratching below the surface of the landscape we should also mention the risk of an unusually large number of upsets of nationally prominent favorites in the lesser conference tournaments. This x-factor would reduce the number of at-large bids for teams like Northwestern. All along we have implicitly assumed that there would not be an unusually high number of upsets of the Gonzaga's of the world in their conference tournaments. We acknowledge the reality could turn out differently.

In sum we now think 9-9 would put us in prime bubble territory and not safely into the NCAAs. So if you want to think in terms of wins necessary for a likely NCAA tournament invite we now think that number is 21. Still we will keep with the 20 win threshold for now until the picture comes into focus over the next few weeks but with the thought that 20 wins would get us onto the bubble and allow for some serious Maalox moments come Selection Sunday.

Northwestern on track for NCAAs

NU's record is (13-5, 3-4) in the wake of last night's decimation of outmatched SIU-Edwardsville. We have said all along that 20 wins is the magic number for NU's NCAAs dreams. In the mailbag critics have argued this is an oversimplification. While there is no doubt that we have simplified the picture to better see the forest through the trees, this does not mean that we are off-base in our thinking.

The way we figure it a 9-9 record in the #1/#2 conference plus one Big Ten Tourney win implied by the 20 win threshold would be enough to make the NCAAs regardless of the particulars of how NU got there. The discussion will merit more fine tuning as season end nears and the outlook comes more into focus, but for now it will have to do.

Of note kenpom now shows that NU's expected regular season performance has improved to (19-10, 9-9). There are no guarantees that this will come to fruition, but it does show that NU is on track for its first ever NCAAs berth at the moment under the reasonable assumption that NU will win what is sure to be a favorable match-up against a lower-tier team in the first round of the Big Ten tourney.

A win against Wisconsin at the Welsh on Saturday would certainly help NU's causes. kenpom has NU's chances at 44% with an expected score of 65-66. The game is there for the taking, and NU has had success in the past against the Badgers at the Welsh. Make it so.

Magic number: 7

On Luka Mirkovic

As the season wears on it is becoming increasingly apparent that the play of favorite Northwestern fan punching bag Luka Mirkovic is as good a barometer for this team as any. A review of the +/- stats from within conference play bare this out.

In the first three games of the Big Ten schedule (at Purdue, Michigan State, at Illinois) Luka had +/-'s of -19, -15, and -16 respectively. If we take these stats in isolation then it is clear that Luka struggled against these nationally ranked foes.

Luka's performance in those games looks even worse when one considers how NU fared with Luka on the bench. The Roland Rating ("RR"), computed as on court +/- less off court +/-, provides such insight. In those same three games Luka's RR was -25, -27, and -7.

For the math-challenged Carmody Courters, if a player's RR is less than the +/- then Northwestern gained ground on its opponent while that player sat on the bench. This is what happened with Luka in the games at Purdue and against Michigan State at the Welsh. The reverse is true in the game at Illinois, but we don't think it is wise to glean much from the Illinois game due to the blowout nature of that game. That said, NU was -16 during Luka's 22 minutes and -7 during Davide Curletti's 18 minutes (which were more heavily weighted during that sloppy second half) which is not exactly a resume building statistic for Luka.

With the easing of the schedule over the past four games (Indiana, at Iowa, at Michigan State, Michigan) Luka's performance has been markedly better. Luka had a +10, +3, +3, and +21 in those games, respectively. His corresponding RR statistics were +8, -13, +10, and +28. That is, NU was about equally well off in the Indiana game whether or not Luka was on the floor and was better off when Luka was sitting at Iowa. As was the case with the Illinois game we don't put much weight on the Iowa game statistics as that game was a blowout starting about midway through the first half.

To us what really jumps out is Luka's performance in NU's most recent two games at Michigan State and against Michigan at the Welsh. If you consider Luka's performances in both Michigan State games his +/- improved from a -15 to a +3, and this improvement was made by a typically under performing "Road Luka" over the comparatively better "Home Luka." Furthermore as mentioned above Luka's RR in the first game against Sparty was poor, but his RR flipped in the rematch with NU faring much better with Luka on the court.

To follow-up his solid performance in E Lansing, Luka had an outstanding game against Michigan at the Welsh. It probably would irk some NU fans and opponents, but it would be appropriate for Luka to do his vintage chest thumping over his +/- of +21 and an RR of +28 against Michigan.

In sum the trend is for a markedly improved Luka within the conference over the last four games. Similarly NU's performance in those games has also been markedly improved. Certainly some of that has to do with the quality of the opponent. However the +/- and RR statistics suggest that Luka has started to turn a corner. Let's hope this trend continues since NU's performance are pretty closely correlated to Luka's performance.

Hat tip to shatsheet.com which is our source for the +/- and RR statistics in the above analysis.

Beilein on the hot seat

So far this year the wolfies up and fired one coach they stole from West Virginia (RichRod). Maybe they will do a 2-fer and can the other coach they stole from the Mountaineers, John Beilein? It's quite possible Beilein is on the chopping block as the Michigan fan base still remember the days of the Fab Five, and he has yet to do anything of note either on the court on the recruiting trails.

Michigan hired Brady Hoke away from San Diego State to replace DickRod. Will history repeat itself and Michigan steal both major revenue sport coaches from the same school? It's an interesting question since the San Diego State coach is none other than Steve Fisher, the guy who led the Fab Five to the national title as an interim coach.

Could it happen? Never say never. It would be special if Michigan were to (re)hire Fisher. NU can do its part in making it so by trouncing Michigan tonight at the Welsh. Si se puede!

Analyzing conference play - first trimester report card

Back in December we dissected the conference schedule and projected what we thought might happen in NU's run to the NCAAs. This projection included a grouping of games into four categories including predicted records within the groups as well as a 9-9 record overall. With a 10-1 non-conf schedule and a first round big ten tourney win we remain optimistic that would land NU on the right side of the bubble.

Well six games are in the books so we have a full trimester of results to analyze. So without further delay here is a look back at the predictions with a summary of where things stand and how NU performed in its first trimester.

Egg
Projected: 4-1
Actual: 1-0 (W: Indiana; L: none)
Difference: 3-1 (Michigan, Iowa, Penn St, Minnesota)

Low Hanging Fruit
Projected: 2-1
Actual: 1-0 (W: at Iowa; L: none)
Difference: 1-1 (at Michigan, at Penn St)

Bling
Projected: 2-2
Actual: 0-1 (W: none; L: Michigan St)
Difference: 2-1 (Wisconsin, Illinois, at Indiana)

Wheaties
Projected: 1-5
Actual: 0-3 (W: none; L: at Purdue, at Illinois, At Michigan St)
Difference: 1-2 (Ohio St, at Minnesota, at Wisconsin)


Analysis
First Trimester Grade: C

The first thing that jumps out is that 4 of the 6 games NU has played are in the Bling or Wheaties groups.

The second thing to note is that NU has taken care of business in the Egg and LHF categories so far, but we still expect at least a couple of missteps among the 6 remaining games (cough, Penn State)

The front loading of the schedule means that it is not surprising NU is 2-4 at this point. In fact it was to be expected so we gave NU a "C" for its efforts so far.

From here on out the schedule is pretty balanced with six games of Bling or higher and six games of Low Hanging Fruit or lower. NU must go 7-5 in these games so there is work to be done. The good news is that this team has shown the potential to just that over the last few games.

Make it so.

NU falls in overtime at East Lansing

In its rematch with Michigan State, Northwestern battled longer and harder, but the result was the same. The overtime loss at the Breslin leaves NU and its fans with that old familiar empty feeling of a missed opportunity to make some hay.

First let's give credit where it is due. Michigan State executed down the stretch in a well-managed final minute of regulation and overtime. Sparty aggressively attacked the basket and either got layups or to the charity stripe where they knocked down all their freebies.

Northwestern did its part to contest the outcome. Drew Crawford, JerShon Cobb, and Luka Mirkovic were cold blooded in front of a raucous MSU student body as they repeatedly knocked down some absolutely huge buckets.

Ultimately it was NU that blinked. First Luka Mirkovic missed a FT regulation that if converted very likely would've sent Northwestern home victorious. Then in overtime NU had a three point lead and the ball midway through the stanza when Drew Crawford made an ill-advised pass that led to a breakaway Draymond Green dunk.

As always these close games bring out the armchair coaches. We've seen many criticisms including Coach Carmody not calling timeouts or not taking the ball earlier at a foul plagued Green to get him out of the game or inbounding the ball to Mirkovic which allowed MSU to foul him. These points are all debatable but ultimately inconclusive in our opinion.

The thing that bothered us the most was the questionable substitution pattern in which Coach Carmody brought in Luka Mirkovic for Davide Curletti for that fateful inbounds play. In that situation Sparty had to foul so it made sense to get your best free throw shooters. Why sit Curletti for Mirkovic in that situation? It makes no sense.

In any event the best part about this game is that Northwestern demonstrated that it can play consistently solid defense. We also liked to see Drew Crawford attacking the hoop, and other players stepping up when opponents zero in on Shurna. Cobb was very impressive and Mirkovic had a solid second half.

With an improving defense and a stellar offense the NCAA dream is far from over.

MLK Weekend Big Ten Power Rankings

Off to the wild blue yonder this weekend so we wanted to get our much anticipated MLK Weekend power rankings out there now.

More so than in any previous year (which is one) the big ten power rankings look to be highly variable. That is because the conference is pretty darn deep and no game can really be taken for granted. So here we go...

1. Ohio state. Undefeated for maybe another week (no change)
2. Purdue. Solid team, jobbed by refs at Minn. (+2)
3. Wisconsin. Bo Ryan doing his thang. (+1)
4. Illinois. Front court barometer. (+3)
5. Michigan state. Inconsistent guard play. (-2)
6. Minnesota. Unbridled talent. (-1)
7. Northwestern. Shurna on the mend. (-1)
8. Michigan. Meh. (n/c)
9. Penn state. Restored faith in DeChellis. (+2)
10. Indiana. Bare cupboard? (n/c)
11. Iowa. Google "perimeter defense." (-1)

From the "now I've seen everything" department

Re: Just got back from the godawful NU game

"One thing that was very clear last night, viewing the game in person: The NU team looked like men playing against boys. The difference in physique was remarkable. The three European players were most notable.

NU was a very physical defensive team, and were allowed to get away early with a lot of hands on defense that pushed Iowa out of their comfort zone. Gatens and Cartwright had to work their ass off to get open.

And I don't believe for a minute that May's groin isn't bothering him. That particular injury is sneaky, and will linger the rest of the season. It can greatly hinder his explosiveness, his jumping, and his cutting ability."

Posted by "redbirdhawk" on the rivals message board 1/13 5:28 PM | IP: Logged


Many NU fans will be rubbing their eyes when they read this gem.

Just like football

Northwestern destroyed Iowa at the Carver last night. This wasn't some war of attrition in which NU slowly constricted the life out of the Sqwawks. No, this was an early grizzly bear swat to the Iowa head that mortally wounded the Hawkeyes by midway through the first half. The outcome of the game was never in doubt from that point forth.

The game was supposed to be a toss up so the ease in which NU won was unexpected. Also unexpected has been the reaction to this impressive victory from NU fans. Several fans act as if this was the expected outcome, that NU should have blown out Iowa. Say what?

Any road game in the Big Ten is difficult, and any win no matter how ugly or close it may be is cause for celebration. People forget that Iowa recently went to toe-to-toe at the Carver against Ohio State, the heir apparent to the top ranking not just in the Big Ten but in all of college basketball. Furthermore, the betting line corroborates that this was not the expected outcome. Get real people.

Over the last couple of games NU has started to look like its former NCAA-caliber self. Sure it has helped that the games were against Indiana and Iowa, but simply put NU is doing what NCAA-caliber teams do against inferior teams. Tourney-worthy teams impose their will and win these types of games decisively.

It is of no coincidence that the turnaround has occurred simultaneously with the improvement in John Shurna's ankle. It is unfortunate that a healthy Shurna may have made a difference at Purdue and against Michigan State, but there is no use crying over spilled milk (unless it is in Jim Phillip's cover letter to NU's resume that is sent to the NCAA selection committee in mid-March). The good news is that he is on the mend, and that NU has its swagger back. This bodes well for the rest of conference play.

A win in our next game at the Breslin is not imperative, but it would put NU back into the thick of the NCAA tourney conversation. Make it so.

NU's magic number: 9

Paging Drew Crawford

Well now we know how The Mount felt when they rolled into the Welsh in December. The Illini didn't run out to a 20-0 lead, but it sure felt that way after the first four Illini possessions resulted in twelve points. This game was over before halftime, and the coaches/players were lambasted by the commentators. Rightly so.

Juice Thompson did his best to hold the line early on, but it was akin to sticking a finger in an irreparable dam. With a Northwestern defense that made it look like a Illini five-on-three power play, there was little hope that even our prolific offense could keep pace.

It is quite obvious that Northwestern is reeling from the significantly diminished effectiveness of John Shurna. The guy has gone from a 60%+ shooting pace from beyond the arc and 20+ ppg to 1-11 shooting games and single digit scoring efforts. It's hard to not be disheartened by this swift change of events.

Someone desperately needs to step up his game or this season will be a wash even before the PSU's of the world have their chance to dash our NCAAs dreams. We have been hoping that Juice Thompson would exert his will, but now we're not sure how much more he can do frankly. Nor are we counting on any increased production out of the five hole even though we suspect there will be occasional games in which we will be pleasantly surprised by Mirkovic and/or Curletti. JerShon Cobb has shown great potential, but he is just a freshman and will have his ups and downs.

That leaves Drew Crawford as the the key to saving this season. Just as was the case with John Shurna last year, Drew needs to step up his game and on a consistent basis. He has the skills to do it, but maybe not the right mindset. Maybe he should take notes from John Shurna who takes what the defense gives him. Instead of jacking up forced threes under pressure or off-balance he needs to take the ball to the hole. He's playing in the three spot, and in the face of pressure along the arc he should be able to drive past his man and force the defense to collapse.

So ready or not, Drew, this is your time. Make it so.

One box out short of a historic comeback

Tom Izzo decided to take take the air of the ball and nurse a 13 point lead with about three minutes to play. Northwestern nearly made the Spartans pay.

This tactical decision effectively made the Spartan players hesitant and caused them to do just about everything possible to allow NU back into the game for a chance at an improbable victory. Poor passes leading to turnovers, charges, passing on wide open threes by shooters who barely stirred the net as they swished them previously, you name it.

In what seemed a blink of the eye, what was once a comfortable road victory for Sparty turned into a nail biter as Northwestern stormed back to make it a one point game with just 25 seconds to play. That's where the storybook ending for the Wildcats unraveled.

On the penultimate possession of the game Alex Marcotullio reached-in on Kalin Lucas with about a dozen seconds remaining to force a one-and-one situation. Normally foulding Lucas would be a bad idea, but as noted in our pregame bit Lucas is but a shell of his former All Big Ten self at the moment.

As Lucas settled in for the front end, we were yelling "box the f#*&$ out" in this pivotal moment. As if on cue, Lucas spun out his attempt, but Green bulled his way through John Shurna to corral the rebound and put it back for an easy deuce. MOTHER F%#&ER!!!!!

Northwestern opted to not take a timeout on the last possession of the game, and ultimately they were unable to knot the game at the buzzer. Cue the armchair coaches.....

Hindsight may be 20/20, but a little foresight would've suggested that leaving a gimpy Shurna out there to box out Green was not a wise decision. Bad decision, Coach. Senior Mike Capocci who has the hops and the strength to corral a pivotal rebound should have been out there in his stead. Green may have still gotten the rebound as he is a heckuva player, but at least put a guy out there who has some ups and isn't nursing a bum ankle to box him out.

As for the criticism that NU should have called a timeout we think it might have been a good idea to have juice take it down to the bench and have a play set up with about 6 or 7 seconds to play. Even Carmody's detractors grudgingly admit that he is good at drawing up inbounds plays that result in open looks.

What we haven't seen from the fans is criticism to let the clock wind down to about 12 seconds before fouling Lucas. Really? In those situations you extend the game and adjust on the fly. If the opponent gets the ball to a JJ Redick type then so be it. Just foul the guy and stop the clock.

Carmody deserves a bit of the blame for some tactical errors in the last 25 seconds. But Izzo also deserves some blame for allowing the comeback to even become possibility. No one is perfect.

Lastly while we are disappointed in the outcome as we wrote in our pregame analysis we were more interested in the health of Shurna's ankle. It clearly is bothering him which should be even more troubling to Northwestern fans than this missed opportunity to steal a win.

Tonight's game barely on MSU radar

Or at least it isn't on Red Cedar. We recall a similar absence of chatter prior to our game in East Lansing in January 2009.......

NCAA tourney chances hinge on healthy Shurna ankle

The last game of 2010 against Purdue was a mixed bag. The biggest downer was not that Northwestern lost but the realization that Shurna is hobbled by a bum wheel. How long will the ankle affect Shurna? The answer to this key question is also the answer to the viability of Northwestern as a tourney squad.

Against Purdue other Wildcats stepped up their games to fill the void left by an ailing Shurna. Most notable was Mike Capocci who gave a real defensive spark that energized the team. JerShon Cobb had a very impressive Big Ten debut showing off a polished repertoire of offensive moves. Luka Mirkovic benefited on the offensive end from Purdue's willingness to let him beat them instead of risking fouls to JaJuan Johnson.

In the first game of 2011 Northwestern tries to level its Big Ten record tomorrow night against Sparty at the Welsh. Michigan State is 1-0 in the Big Ten after defeating Goldie in E Lansing. Sparty has tons of talent, but they are still trying to find their way.

This is a tough match-up for Northwestern as Sparty has the wide bodies down low to turn Luka Mirkovic into road kill ala St John's. Durrell Summers also has the ability to go E'twaun Moore on us and bomb away from beyond the arc. That does not bode well.

More important than the actual outcome of this game is Shurna's health. A loss to Michigan State would not be devastating to our NCAA dreams, but a chronic problem with Shurna's ankle would be. We'll be monitoring how Johnny's ankle looks in this game.

Northwestern at Purdue pregame analysis

And so it begins. Northwestern (9-1) travels to West Lafayette to take on the Purdue Boilermakers (12-1) tomorrow night at 11AM central. ESPN2 and WGN have the call. The Boilers are a perfect 7-0 at Mackey but have yet to play any team of significance over there. Meanwhile Northwestern is 2-1 on the road which includes two wins against cream puffs and a loss to what appears to be a strong St John's squad. The Broilers are ranked #12 by the writers and #11 by the coaches. Northwestern is barely hanging on to the list of "others receiving votes."

This game is a study of contrasts. Purdue is known for its solid defense while Northwestern is known for its prolific offense. On the other side of the court Purdue's offense has been sluggish while Northwestern's defense has been mediocre at best. So it will be strength against strength in tomorrow night's game.

On the bright side Carmody's cagers have matched up well against Painter's playas in recent history. Northwestern won the match up in the Welsh last year and won down at Mackey the year before. Purdue did manage to eke out a win in the other game two years ago at the Welsh, but Northwestern had a big second half lead even there before inexperience reared its ugly head. Like this year Northwestern was a big underdog in both of those NU wins so the uphill battle this year may not be as daunting as it may appear on the surface.

On the dark side defense tends to trump offense when push comes to shove. The more pushing and shoving the refs allow in this game the more tilted in Purdue's favor it becomes. Also of concern is the status of John Shurna and JerShon Cobb. If either and/or both are not up to full speed this could very well be an ugly loss guys and girls.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that Johnny and JerShon are ready to go as a win tomorrow night would be a nice feather in our cap and a great way to start off a tough stretch to begin the Big Ten season.

Magic number update: 11

Carmody Court 2.0 is here!

Drop the balloons and confetti Danny-boy. And be sure to check your ticket stubs as you may be our lucky 1 millionth customer and winner of our "mystery prize." OK whom are we kidding? 10 thousandth customer (and we'll pretend we're Italy and we just lumped off some zeros).

Anywho Santa brought the new and improved Carmody Court 2.0 with some shiny new links including the ever-so-entertaining bracket matrix and the massey compendium o' college basketball rankings. Go ahead and click through to these collections of the outputs of computer geeks with a college basketball habit the world over. That way our sponsors will be sure to give us a nice firm handshake and an attaboy.

No but wait there's more! If you call within the next 30 minutues we will throw in a WHOLE NEW list of links for your browsing pleasure. Just below the indispensable Northwestern basketball links is a list of popular (and free) big ten basketball message board links from all across the interwebs. These links should be quite handy for those of you Carmody Courters who wish to check out the pregame banter and maybe add a cent or two of your own. Or better yet these links are at the ready for some gratuitous schadenfreudening to watch incensed fringe fans meltdown where their alma mater u loses a game to a perceived little sister's of the poor jv squad.

For instance check out Indiana's peegs message board right now. That is some prime schadenfreudening in the wake of a home loss to lowly penn state. Patience is wearing thin in the third year of the Tom Crean regime for this once proud blue blood of a program. Battle lines are drawn between the irrational win-now-because-we-are-IU-chest-thumpers and the see-the-forest-through-the-trees-kumbaya-apologists. Mmmmm.... popcorn!

Call now! Operators are standing by.

Nice Sobolewski interview

Props for a nice bit on Sobolewski from scout's new Northwestern athletics webmeister, Chris Emma. He's really trying to revive that website which is nice for all of us junkies!

Pre-conference slate big ten power rankings

Penn state and Indiana get conference play kicked off tonight in Bloomington. Today is also beauty pageant day for the coaches and writers so we don't want to be left out of the pontification party.

1. Ohio state. Only undefeated team. Columbus/Philly: "evan turner who?" (no change)
2. Wisconsin. Steady as she goes. (+2)
3. Michigan state. Lucas still a step slow. (-1)
4. Purdue. Bumped thanks to others' missteps. Painter's nemesis coming to town 12/31. (+2)
5. Minnesota. Al Nolen is back. Is he really a difference maker? (+2)
6. Northwestern. The "five hole." (-1)
7. Illinois. Ugly meltdowns against Chicago's horizon team and Mizzou. (-4)
8. Michigan. Solid D. (+1)
9. Indiana. 2 game losing streak and no wins of consequence. (-1)
10. Iowa. No terrible losses. (+1)
11. Penn state. 2 game losing streak on heels of narrow win over the mount. (-1)

Holiday festival aftermath

We ain't gonna sugarcoat it. That was a disturbing loss at the garden. The second half looked like the johnnies and wildcats did their best hot knives and butter impressions respectively.

Still it was just one bad half that exposed some flaws in Northwestern's team. These flaws are not (or should not be) a surprise to us or anyone who follows this team let alone the collection of quality coaches within the big ten. Will big ten teams be able to follow lavin's blueprint for success and exploit nu's flaws as well as the johnnies did in the second half? Some will be able to but others will not.

NU isn't invincible and without some warts. Even the most wildly optimistic fans knew this. Nu has the makings of a tourney team, and one bad half isn't going to change that. So show some spine and buck up chicken littles.

Cats rough up the terriers

Ouch! Even we think that is an awful homophone. Deal with it.

This team continues to do what good teams do. We'll let other sing the praises of drew crawford, john shurna, and juice thompson.

We have more important business. WTF is this image, and why is it being used by yahoo for nu games?


Nu is pretty weak at branding (e.g., this icon. and exactly how many different shades of purple do we need to have at the welsh) considering it has the #1 marketing school in all the land.

One other thing: nu's (8-0) magic number is now 12.

Wag of the finger

for the big ten geeks. They are already saying that nu will not make the big dance. They contend that because of a weak rpi that 10-8 in conference may not be enough. Come on. That would get nu to 21-8 before the big ten tournament. That would get nu in the upper half of the big ten. The very same big ten they led off with being the #1 conference. Talk about logical inconsistencies!

Illwhini - Sean Morris edition

Anyone who has spent any time around Illinois fans knows full well that they are prone to complaining about anything and everything. I don't think the illini have ever lost a game fair and square in their minds. It's always xyz's fault.

In the wake of the humiliating loss to the UIC flamers poor old Sean Morris in the cross hairs.

Check this thread out then look around. Some good schadenfreudeing out there right about now!

Chicago's unofficial big ten team goes down

No. Not Northwestern. The illwhini just lost to their little brother UIC. At the united center. The illini home away from home. That just took some shine off the big ten and our win down in shampoo-banana next month.

Thanks for nothing losers. BOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Northwestern's longest winning streak...

to start the season since 9-0 in 1993/94." blah blah blah.

Anyone else getting tired of reading/hearing this line during/after every game? Same here. Ever wonder what the press will write when NU is sitting at 10-0 this Thursday evening? Don't worry we got your back and dusted off the archives.

In 1982-83 nu started with a 9 game winning streak which ended in the Nike Classic against UCSB that was located in (yep) Santa Barbara. So that may get a minor footnote during/after the Holiday Classic title game.

To find an even longer streak to start the season we have to go all the way back to nu's 1930-31 national championship team coached by Arthur Lonborg that started the season 12-0 en route to a 16-1 record. We actually look forward to those references.

In the unlikely event that nu starts the season 12-0 (which would include victories at purdue and against Michigan state at the welsh) then there'd be a historic tussle down in shampoo-banana against what should be a decently ranked illwhini squad with nu's record books on the line for this semi-irrelevant statistic.

So there you have it. Now you can rest easy knowing what lays ahead for journalists looking for something clever to say about our intrepid cagers.

For the record

Nu will make the NCAAs this year. Yeah we said it. Nope you can't blame us if it don't happen.

As we watched the wildcats dismantle an american squad primed and intent on heading back to capital city usa with a big ten roadie scalp it became apparent that nu has all the makings of an NCAA squad. This was a game as recently as last year that nu might have struggled to win and could very easily have lost. To see this team come together and put the game on ice midway through the second half was an epiphany.

We've watched a ton of college basketball over the years and we know good basketball when we see it. Nu is a good basketball team. This team has un je-ne-sais-quoi about it that exudes the look of an NCAA-caliber squad. Why?

Maybe it's our senior point guard who can do any number of things to help his team win.
Maybe it's our star player who will drop 20+ points in a blink of an eye if not game planned against.
Maybe it's a team stocked with role players who can knock down open shots.
Maybe it's the calmness and quiet confidence that they will prevail even when things aren't going perfectly.
Maybe it's the ability to bury an opponent at a moment's notice.
Maybe it's the beauty of this offense that takes exactly what is given to it.
Maybe it's the enthusiasm and togetherness that is abundantly obvious by how everyone is cheering each other on and juice hip bumping guys on the end of the bench when getting a hoop and the harm.
Maybe it's the team consistently winning handily against weaker opponents as all good teams do.

Or maybe it's the combination of all these things. We can't put a finger on exactly why we know this team is going to end the drought. We just know they will. And we will enjoy every last minute of this long overdue ride.

Nu 78 American 62

OK let's first get a little business out of the way before we get into the game. Yes we meant to write 411 when we typed 911 on our pregame post. But since it got a rise out of a record number carmodycourters we think we've serendipitously stumbled upon something special. Be on the lookout for a 911 information post in the near future on a blog near you.

As for the game most of the bloggers/beat writers/message board denizens have already hit upon our two cents. Among those ideas that didn't see daylight early enough for us to lay down our flag and claim as our original ideas are:

* American was a pretty good team and better than anticipated. They were more than the one man vlad show and were quite competitive in the first half. Hence this was a very respectable win for nu.

* The 1-3-1 was noticeably absent which is good thing considering we need to develop a viable secondary defense when teams have the 1-3-1 solve (yes we are looking right at you ed dechellis)

* Nu's game plan was to make the vlad man uncomfortable. During the pivotal stretch of the game vlad was invisible out there.

* Juice is looking the part of veteran senior guard who are vital to teams that make it into and move on in the NCAAs.

* Shurna is very very good and getting better. Wow! That leaner when he got the conventional 3 point play after getting hammered to the ground was stupendous. That desperation heave from near half court to beat the shot clock that went in displayed skill and awareness. While not the fleetest of foot on defense Johnny does keep his head on a swivel which helps to force turnovers.

* The game was settled during a pivotal 3 minute stretch midway through the second half in which nu went a 13-0 run that stretched a competitive 7 point game into a 20 point yawning gap. Yes clark kellogg we's gots spurtability in spadez.

* Drew Crawford couldn't get free. At least he didn't force shots. We imagine he'll have some heady games when teams decide to help on johnny shurna and sag off him. He just needs a little daylight to make teams pay.

* Cobb had a rather unremarkable game and still exhibits excitability. Yes he's still a frosh. Good news is that things will really be sinking in for him by the time we debut in the NCAAs!

* Luka had a good game and was dogged on the boards. Keep it up big fella.

Nu is now 7-0 and gaining in national profile. Magic number: 13

The 911 on the vlighting vlads

So we set out our cracker jack interns to learn more about our next opponent. As we suspected the name american u is a farce. The school is located in the nation's capital which as most americans know is about as far removed from your average joe america as timbuktu. Apple pie? Try freedom fries. Chevrolets? Maybe some months ago but GM just went all IPO on uncle Sam! Baseball? The gnats make the flubbies look like the yanks (with cliff lee OOPS!). Hot dogs? OK maybe that one has DC written all over it. But a .250 batting average won't pass muster. Unless we're still talking about the gnats.

Also as we suspected the american eagles as they are known are a one man band headlined by our friend vlad moldoveanu. And yes it turns out the scoring machine is Romanian which to our surprise is not home to the old gladiator coliseum (Maximus! Maximus! Maximus!). No, Romania is a country best known for its vampires and gypsies. Some people get it confused with Hungary as their capital cities are so close in name and both lie on the banks of the blue donau. Oh and evil dictators and passing grounds for great armies of yore are other Romania claims to fame.

But onto this vlad dude. The guy went to a high school called St John's College High School. WTF is up with that? I bet they really churn out the national merit scholars at that bastion of higher learning. Aside being afflicted by premature balding vlad seems like a good guy whose english is much better than we had expected. But don't take our word for it: check this out

Ffow update of the week

Former flavor of the week craig robinson was once held out as an example of someone who could do a better job than bill carmody. evidence was his rapid rise from shackled nu assistant to brown coach to rising oregon state megastar coach. What's more was that his sister was married to the hottest political entity the world over. How could nu not succeed with this juggernaut at the helm?

Robinson is now in his third season with the beavers and sit at an admirable 4-5 after nearly gutting out a victory over the wunderkinds from Montana U. Alas not even craig's dynamic leadership could overcome this herculean task and the beavers ultimately succumbed 66-71.

Oh what could have been. We are wistful that henry bienen et al didn't heed the wise words of those who were singing mr robinson's tune.

FoB of the week: massey

This week's Friend of the Blog is massey ratings. Not only do these good folks perform yeoman's work throughout the year compiling compendia of the various college basketball (and college football) rankings scattered across the interwebs but also they have what in our view (for the moment) is a vastly superior ranking system of their own for college basketball.

You see massey in its infinite wisdom sees nu basketball as the 34th best program in all the land whereas those curmudgeons over at kenpom have nu in the low 50s not to mention the glue sniffing mcpaper loving losers over at sagarin who have nu in the low 70s. Massey agrees with the infallible good sports journalists and coaches who have nu ranked in the low- to mid- 30s as well.

But that's just the tip(off) of the iceberg. Massey have also broken their way into the prediction stranglehold that kenpom has recklessly and carelessly wielded upon the masses for years. The beacons of light at massey predict nu to go a sterling 20-8 on the year including a 10-8 mark in the big ten. We can forgive them for not just handing us the second msg game because computers are built that way. 21-8 before the big ten tourney has a nice ring to it.

In contrast those naysayers over at kenpom have nu going 5-13 in conference. Say what? They must have the keys to the walgreens pharmacy to gather the nerve to publish such nonsense. Pretty much the only big ten team that massey gives nu a lower chance of beating than does kenpom are the mighty michiganders. Michigan has raised some eyebrows over here at carmodycourt so we can't really quibble too much with this minor oversight by massey et al.

Nu 81 long island 65

Nu led throughout. With teams as good as nu is this year games like this are not much more than a nice little scrimmage which are pretty boring for all but the real hoop heads. Best hope for games like this is for nu to work on some stuff on defense and try to get some subs some time. Oh and no injuries.

Nu did work on its matchup zone but hard to tell much against an inferior and undersized opponent. Nu got subs some time thanks to the ref's whistle. It was ugly when juice sat. No wonder he plays 40 minutes when the games mean something. And certainly last but not least is the best thing about the game: no one got hurt.

kenpom.com watch: predicted score nu 84 liu 67. Pretty darn good if you ask us.

Nu's magic number: 14

Analyzing conference play

Nu must take care of business in the non-conference still. Now that we have a better feel for our conference foes we think it's a good time to look ahead to what lays ahead next year.

To get out the dancing shoes in our estimation nu will need to go 9-9 in conference now that the big ten’s grip status as top dog conference appears to be slipping. Below we organize nu’s conference games into four categories: egg, low hanging fruit, bling, and Wheaties games.

Egg
“Egg games” are those in which NU is currently favored (per kenpom.com). As any follower of nu basketball knows it is dangerous to count these as wins before they hatch, and a loss in any of these games would be the proverbial egg on the face. There are five conference games against the projected lower tier big ten teams at the welsh which fall into this category:

Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, penn state, Minnesota

If all goes to plan (it won’t) and nu wins these conference games as expected but no other conference games then the big dance dreams will once again be put on hold. So where will the other wins most likely come from?

Low hanging fruit
Three away games against the projected lower tier big ten teams are the most obvious candidates for nu upset wins. Nothing extraordinary would be needed to win them. Just get into that tree and pick the fruit hanging within reach. These three games are:

at Iowa, at Michigan, at penn state.

Grab all of the low hanging fruit (won’t happen) on top of all the egg games and nu would sit at eight conference wins with zero no resume building “good wins.” That’s still not good enough.

Bling
There are four games that have potential to be resume builders, games that nu could win and then show them off as bling to the ncaa tournament selection committee. To be sure in order to win these games nu will need to play close to its full potential. An nu win would raise some eyebrows and garner attention in the beauty pageant polls, but they would not be headline grabbing wins.

Michigan state, Wisconsin and Illinois at the welsh, Indiana at assembly hall.

In our estimation we will need to grab two of these four bling.

Wheaties
The remaining six conference games look beyond reach on paper. As the old slogan goes nu better eat its Wheaties before these games if they hope to win.

Purdue at mackey, Minnesota at the barn, Michigan state at breslin, Ohio state at the welsh, Illinois at assembly, Wisconsin at kohl.

Though all of these Wheaties games are real stretches, nu has proven capable of winning one or two of these games over the past couple of years. We’d be willing to bet this trend continues.

Summary
So our best guess as to what will play out:

Egg 4-1
Low Hanging Fruit 2-1
Bling 2-2
Wheaties 1-5
Overall 9-9

That’s one bad loss, one great win, and two tourney building games. Go undefeated or lose one game in the non-conference combined with a first round win in the big ten tourney. Add it all up and it’s 20+ wins and an invite to a first round ncaa game.

Trip down memory lane

Nu 70 msu 63
Jan 21 2009
Breslin center

http://nusports.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/012109aab.html

Why bring it up? If lorretta8 of sippin on purple feels compelled to revisit the "low point" of the carmody era in narrowly defeating wheaton college then feng shui compels us to bring things back into balance by looking at the high point. Or are we thinking of yin and yang?

Filling the lull with kenpom statistics

As most students--including our true student-athletes who are glorified on this blog--are busy cramming for final exams because they did not have the foresight/were too lazy to opt for the final paper option, we at carmody court are here to fill the void with some early statistical analysis. Courtesy of kenpom:

Nu is currently #11 in the nation in offense efficiency and #131 in defense efficiency. Offense is an improvement of 22 spots over last year's impressive #33 offense. So what was already a strength looks to be even stronger.

However pretty much everyone who follows nu basketball knows that the key to making the big dance this year is to improvement on defense. The early returns are a good news/bad news kinda deal. The good news is that nu is improved over last year on the order of 38 spots. The bad news is that this is tempered by the fact that nu has played the 316th easiest schedule (out of 360 some odd programs). So any conclusions are tentative at best and subject to change once the schedule bumps up in degree of difficulty (no duh!).

Since defense is so important we decided to delve a little more deeply into the improvement to date. kenpom uses "four factors" when computing defense efficiency. The area of greatest improvement amongst these factors is offense rebounding percentage (or in this context, nu's defensive rebounding percentage). Last year nu was a subpar #216 in this statistic while this year nu is at a very respectable #41. That kind of improvement is clearly colored by strength of schedule as these kinds of leaps simply don't happen for teams that have really only one major change to the roster (cobb for nash, ok jeff ryan added to the mix is another change). four of the five opponents so far are abysmal at offensive rebounds. only ga tech is good at crashing the offensive boards.

Nearly as great an area of improvement is FTA/FGA which improved from a dismal #256 to a respectable #86. So NU is no longer foul prone. We shall see if that continues as the level of athletes improves. Again ga tech not withstanding.

Turnover percentage has improved slightly from #161 to #130. No big revelation here.

The biggest red flag that we see is that effective field goal percentage has actually grown worse from a so-so #143 ranking to a lowly #213 ranking (50.o% efg%). Against this lowly competition? Not good.

So we have an overall improvement on defense but really can't put much stock in it due to the competition. What's worse is that we are letting bad teams shoot the heck out of the ball. The good news is that there should be some offensive shows at the welsh this year. The bad news is there is reason to think that the defense may once again be this team's Achilles heel.

NU ranked #31/#34

Polls were just released. Coaches have nu ranked #31, writers #34. We were actually hoping for higher but results not surprising given where we started (off the radar).

Win the tourney at msg and top 25 is within sight.

We're number 24

We got all excited about the Yahoo! User Rankings when we saw Northwestern listed at #24. Then it dawned on us that this is totally manipulated by losers like mizzou and domer fans who have nothing better to do than inflate their team rankings on some meaningless poll. Real men of genius.......

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/polls

On jershon cobb and last thoughts on the tech game

The kid got game, but he is a typical freshman who regularly exhibits poor decision making. This is most apparent when he handles the ball against pressure, his passing in general, and he doesn't know how closely he can push the envelope on defense without fouling.

We have confidence that he will grow out of these problem areas as he gets acclimated to major college ball. He will be a nice complement to drew crawford for the next few years.

Just a couple of additional thoughts about the tech game before we promise to move on. First, what the heck were the starters doing in the game up by 25 with 5 minutes to play. Second, shumpert had an off game for him but it is clear that he is a baller.

Juice Thompson a dirty player?

There was some mild hullabaloo made about some poll that showed juice's peers rated him the dirtiest player in the big ten. We have to be honest--we never thought of juice as a dirty player, but we just filed away that nugget to see if there was much basis to that assertion.

Well ladies and gents let's go to the videotape (or dvr/TiVo if you want to go all 21st century). Check out the 12:30 mark of the second half. On a seemingly innocuous play that resulted in a tech foul, just prior to the foul juice gave iman shumpert a not-so-gentle two handed shove that would make our football ol proud. Shumpert went flying back a few feet and then had this quizzical look on his face after the whistle blew on his teammate of all people.

There were another couple of instances of push offs, but really the only other excessive looking one occurred in the first half on a clear out for a shurna three. Juice did hit the ground as he shoved shumpert so maybe he tripped. We do find it curious that shumpert was on the business end of two Thompson hard shoves. Maybe juice took it personally that shumpert, who is a class behind juice, didn't think nu had enough talent to commit to nu. Dunno.

The one play that possibly be dirty was near the very end of the first half where the ball bounded out and juice hit the floor with a tech big. It was pretty hard to tell if juice gave a little extra oomph to push the techie into the floor but there wasn't exactly any love lost between the two as they picked themselves up off the floor.

Dirty? That seems a bit much. We'd call it crafty. Check that. Let's call it wily which sounds more befitting for a northwestern player.

Interesting kenpom factoids

According to kenpom.com five big ten teams are in the top 25 of adjusted offensive efficiency and five are in the top 25 of adjusted defensive efficiency. four big ten teams are in the top 25 of both categories (ohio state, michigan state, illinois, wisconsin).

Despite getting shellacked by northwestern's prolific offense Georgia tech's defense is still in the top 50. I wonder how high they were before nu scored at will against them.

Blog maintenance

Thank you "whiskers" for pointing out that our sagarin link was out of date. It has been updated. The rest of you in carmody court nation are welcome/encouraged to drop us a line to let us know if we are negligent in our upkeep of this blog.

Shurna atop big ten in scoring

and tied for 13th in the nation at 22.4 ppg. as a mildly interesting side note johnny shurna is tied with vlad moldoveanu who has been tearing up the nets at american university in capital city usa. three thoughts come to mind:

1. vlad. cool name. i checked and it's not in the top 1,000 american baby names so i'll go out on a limb and guess he ain't from the usa.
2. moldoveanu. so where is he from? moldova? naw. too obvious. my guess is romania just because that romanian dictator's last name ended with a u (i'm no history major, and i'm too lazy to google the dude's name)
3. who will win the scoring battle when vlad makes his way to evanston? will he pull a xavier silas and pad the stats in garbage time against the end of our bench?

Post Big Ten-ACC Challenge Power Rankings

The nice thing about the challenge is that it is a good chance to see where all the Big Ten teams are currently at...

1. Ohio state. Awesome on both ends of court (+1 from preseason ranking)
2. Michigan state. #2 already? Sparty is well ahead of pace which a scary thought (-1)
3. Illinois. Impressive game all around against the tarholes (+2)
4. Wisconsin. One word: defense (no change)
5. Northwestern. One word: offense (+1)
6. Purdue. Some say that was good defense against VT; we say it was middling basketball (-3)
7. Minnesota. Not a bad team, but Big Ten is STACKED (n/c)
8. Indiana. Ugly loss at BC brings the hosers back to reality (n/c)
9. Michigan. Nice upset win bumps 'em up a notch (+1)
10. Penn state. Ugly loss at home to twerps (-1)
11. Iowa. Someone has to be the caboose (n/c)

Big ten squeaks out 6-5 victory

Ok, msu is currently playing duke with 3 mins to go, but the writing is on the wall. This shoulda been a bigger big ten romp. But...

The gophers shit the bed as previously noted
The hawkeyes are truly bad
The nit wits have only one good player
The hoosiers are still a year away
Sparty can't protect the rock

It took Purdue to salvage this challenge with a rather fortunate ot win at vatech. Yuck.

Most impressive were nu, illini, badgers, and Osu in their victories. Michigan surprised on the road, but Clemson was just being Clemson, new coach same as the old coach...

Nu wrecks tech, internets abuzz

As snowflakes fell through the crisp Evanston evening the snowballernaut that is nu basketball picked up significant momentum courtesy of a typically clueless Georgia tech squad. 55 sweet points rained down through the nets off nu hands in a first half like none seen before under sir carmodys steady hand. The rout was on with the stingless yellow jackets never able to close the gap to single digits in the second half.

Garbage time against an acc opponent. Final score 91-71? This is what uncharted waters look like nu fans. Enjoy the ride all the way to selection Sunday!

Magic number: 15

Big Ten - ACC Challenge 2010

Well, goldie just shit the bed and lost one of the big ten's most winnable games on paper during this year's challenge. Way to go azzhats. We knew they were gonna come back to earth, but we had hoped it wouldn't be until January. $&@@#%^%#!!!!

Most telling statistic:
Second half scoring
UVA 58
Minn 40

Blech!


What's really amusing that homers over there on gopher hole really have been drinking the koolaid and think they are the #2 team in the big ten when healthy. Say what?!?!?!?

Getting back to the subject of this post, we were hoping for a 7-4 victory this year, but now we're worried about squeaking out another 6-5 victory this year.

Creighton homers

John Templon had some creighton blogger predict a bluejay victory at Welsh-Ryan. Say what? Did Nate Funk find another year of eligibility? Kyle Korver?

Give us a break. Frankly anything less than a comfortable 10 point Northwestern romp would be a moral victory for the bluejays. Their best hope will be to outgun us (a theme that is shaping up for the entire year) and the jays are bringing a pop gun to this showdown.

With the victory over the jays, nu's magic number will be 16.

Over/under on wins needed to make ncaas

Ok it is like way premature for this kind of post, but i'm high on moms thanksgiving dinner and seeing the good ol' crystal ball.

Assumptions:

Big Ten has highest or second highest RPI.
At least one of NU's non-conference opponents makes the NIT or better.

We say 20 wins and NU is in.

10-1,9-9,1-1
Or
11-0,9-9,0-1
Or
11-0,8-10,1-1
Or
...

I don't think it matters how nu gets there but 20 is the target ladies and gents. Now I know 20 wins got us to the NIT last year, but the combo of 68 teams invited to the big dance and an improved big ten will be enough to make the difference this year.

Ok now we are PRIMED for THE SEASON!

http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20101110/sports/711119893/

Thank you lindsey for getting the juices a-flowin! It was such a fun and bullish read that we'll give you a pass for dropping in that 20 win comment regarding last season, as if that plateau has much meaning in this day and age of 30+ game schedules.

Our favorite parts:

1. The cobb blurb -best athlete sounds like he will fill a void
2. Capoccci looks ready to break out (we saw signs of this late last season)
3. The improvements that shurna can and will make this season (wow!)
4. Crawford has made a leap (we have seen hopes for a shurna type breakthrough, which is pretty unlikely since those rarely happen, and he doesn't need to fill a huge coble sized hole)

Interesting nuggets courtesy of cbs

From the "whoda thunk it" category:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/report/NW/14203179/wildcats-report-getting-inside

"During the offseason, according to the Daily Herald, 17 boosters teamed up to donate $140,000 so the Wildcats could make a 10-day trip to Italy prior to their fall quarter."

From the longstanding futility statistics department:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/report/NW/14203180/wildcats-report-notes-quotes

"If he had made one more basket during league play last year, Shurna would have been the first NU player to lead the league in scoring (conference games only) since Ray Ragelis in 1951. Shurna averaged 20.1 points in league games."

From the what if department

Pe'shon Howard, who is a freshman guard for Maryland, just knocked down the game winner for the terps. Some may recall nu was in on howard before he broke our hearts. Well, the kid is showing game just two starts into his collegiate career, with 14 points on 6-7 shooting and 1-1 from downtown.

We will be watching mr Howard as his collegiate career progresses.

Preseason big ten power rankings

Well the season is finally upon us. Nu will have to make its historic run for the ncaas without Kevin coble. Much like last year. We expect things to turn out with a happier ending than last year. No, get your minds out of the gutter. Not THAT kind of happy ending. One night in Bangkok makes a hard man crumble...

Enough. On to more important business. Preseason power rankings!

1. Michigan state. Same old same old.
2. Ohio state. No Evan turner? No problem. Thad matta recruiting express rolls along.
3. Purdue. No hubble again. Our sister program, but with success.
4. Wisconsin. Bo Ryan works his magic. Yet again.
5. Illinois. Weber recruits finally arrive, and the illini still pine away for bill self.
6. Northwestern. Net gains from last years squad, all due respect to Jeremy Nash.
7. Minnesota. We like tubby, but can't see him cracking top half (or so we hope).
8. Indiana. Crean is nearly done with the reclamation project.
9. Penn state. Good coach gets the nod over...
10. Michigan. No manny could be a plus, but still...
11. Iowa. New coach takes over lickliters mess

Utah to Pac 12. End game?

As expected the Pac10 added Utah to make a round dozen of schools to allow for a conference championship. Most folks are calling this the end of the realignment.

Not so fast (ugh, why did I write that? I hate Lee Corso).

What no one seems to be focusing on is what will be the MWC's next move now that they are back down to nine schools? Clearly they are actively seeking to be a relevant player in the college football landscape. What is their next course of action in this endeavor? Will they again raid the WAC? If so, Fresno St seems like a decent target given its CA locale. Perhaps Nevada or Idaho are targets which would get the MWC to twelve schools, a conference championship game, and potential automatic BCS invite. But, these two schools seem rather blah even by MWC standards.

Is it possible that the MWC goes all Pac10 on the college football world and tries to upset the apple cart again? If I'm the MWC, what do I have to lose from taking a flier and attempting to raid the unstable Big XII? Wouldn't it be rich if the MWC invited Texas Tech and Oklahoma State to the party and thereby solve TX's "Tech problem"? Surely these two feel like they are in no man's land between their big brothers (TX, A&M, OU) and the Big XII have-nots. It seems risky for these two schools, but they aren't upwardly mobile under the status quo and are bound to continue losing ground to big brothers. If these two don't go for the bait, maybe MO, KSU, KU, ISU, and/or Baylor would listen to the MWC's pitch.

Stay tuned as this thing ain't over yet. Let's wait and see what the MWC's next move is (and the WAC for that matter) before turning our eyes to the fall.

Blue balled conference realignment

Well so much for the seismic shift in conference affiliations. Talk about anti-climatic. What a friggin tease!

With the Big XII's existence safe for now, it looks like this will only be a minor reshuffling of the conference decks. The Pac 10 may add another team (Utah), the MWC may raid the WAC again or pick up another team from elsewhere. And the WAC will need to make itself whole after losing Boise St and maybe another school.

So what happened? How did the Big XII get rescued when at the brink of extinction? A band of mysterious and unknown shadowy individuals came together to ride in on their high horses and come to the rescue. Let's call them the Nazgul as there are nine likely candidates who formed an unholy coalition to preserve the status quo.

First is first though... what did it take to maintain the status quo? Simple. Give Texas what it wants -- namely, more money and its Bevo network. A good short term fix for UT, but eventually Oklahoma and A&M are going to see they have better options to the south and east. This unstable equilibrium ain't gonna last long.

So who worked behind the scenes to use Dan Beebe as champion for the status quo? The nine Nazgul, in order from most to least motivated:

1. Notre Dame -- It is a no brainer that they were leading the race to save the Big XII. For better or worse, they will only give up independence on their death bed.
2. Texas -- there is little doubt they wanted this outcome, short-sighted as it may be.
3. Mizzou/KSU/Baylor/KU/ISU AD coalition -- these five were staring at oblivion. Desperate times call for desperate measures even if it means falling farther behind the conference haves.
4. Media execs-- This includes NBC, ABC/ESPN, CBS, and FSN (among others). All of them would lose bargaining power and hence money under major realignment.
5. BCS bowl execs coalition -- their little gravy train would've been threatened as playoffs would be a natural outcome of consolidation
6. ACC commish -- compelled by contagion fears, only recently got conference on path to position of strength
7. Big East commish -- see six
6. Lower bowl execs coalition -- see five
9. NCAA exec -- their power is inversely related to schools' collective power

I've seen speculation that the SEC got what it wanted -- the status quo. Whether this is true or not, I don't think they were active in saving the Big XII as the rich tend to get richer under these situations -- and the SEC (along with the Big Ten and Texas) overflows with college football wealth. There is no doubt in my mind that the SEC was poised to gain under realignment with the addition of A&M and one or more of the following: OU, VaTech, WVU.

I've also seen speculation that the Big Ten had an interest in slowing this down to reassess the new landscape. I doubt the Big Ten, the catalyst for these changes, was behind the rescue of the Big XII since it had considered most every scenario and was prepared to make its own maximizing moves under severe time pressure. Since other players may not have been so prepared then there is little to gain and possibly something to lose for things to slow down from the Big Ten's perspective.

Prediction on realignment

Big Ten adds NE, TX, ND
SEC adds A&M, OK
Pac10 adds CO, MO, UT, KS
MWC adds TX Tech, KS ST, IA ST, OK ST, Baylor

On Big Ten Expansion

This year's void from big college revenue sports action has been filled by talk of big ten expansion. We at carmodycourt are grateful for this great source of rumor fodder to help pass the time.

This is a great opportunity to apply some game theory principles to what we have seen play out. Some of the most enlightened thought on this topic has been provided by illini lawyer blogger frank the tank (great movie btw).

What ftt has seemed to hone in on is the big ten and its influencing factors and decision drivers. This led to the astute observation that tejas and nd are the big fish. Where ftt has been somewhat less focused upon are the why's and the who elses.

The biggest question in our mind when the news first broke wasn't which schools would be added but rather why announce expansion intentions at all? To do so would seemingly give up the value of secret negotiations.

The a nouncement told us one of two things about the big ten's goals for expansion.

1. Primary target is nd.

Secret negotiations and/or nd-specific negotiations in the past failed to lure the domers. Public announcement sets major conference reallignments in motion which could help push nd in. Most interesting rumor that supports this is the big east telling nd to leave in order to protect itself from getting decimated by big ten expansion east.


Or


2. Expansion was never about just going to 12.

This is not necessarily true as nd is possibly big tens only objective, but this is very likely about going to 14+ teams. It's easy to hold confidential conversations with one party. It's impossible to do so when speaking with more than one other party, particularly here since decisions to reallignments are likely to be interdependent of others decisions. No use keeping cat in bag here.

Congratulations to the Dukies

We had our doubts about Duke but they answered the bell and vanquished all comers. What a game against Butler! Oh if only Hayward knocked down that half court buzzer beater for the victory....................

Vaya con dios, Kyle Rowley

It was announced today that Kyle Rowley is transferring to another institution where he can get more playing time. We wish Kyle nothing but the best in his future endeavors. Kyle has the potential to become a solid basketball player given the right environment -- we hope he finds that place and makes NU fans rue this day.

When we first learned of this news our thoughts immediately turned to "why?" Is it really because of lack of playing time? Or were the winters too much of a change from T&T's balmy climate? Or did he feel that NU fans was too harsh and too impatient with him? We hope it's not the latter as it would be unfortunate that some petulant tools hiding behind the cloak of a keyboard affected a man's life. Not only that but we would have to question whether the transfer would solve this problem as fans are the same everywhere (maybe not so vocal or at least transparent at schools with "smaller" basketball programs).