21 February 2012

Bubble Watch: Feb 21, 2012 Edition

The bubble is mercurial if nothing else.  Bracket Project updated his matrix last night. 55 bracketologists have updated their projections as of the 19th.  Below is a list of the 20 teams that are not consensus picks for the NCAAs among these 55 forecasts:

Team (included in field by bracketologists)
West Virginia (54/55)
Mississippi St (53)
Connecticut (53)*
Alabama (52)
Seton Hall (52)
BYU (51)
Texas (50)**
Xavier (49)
Miami (49)
NU (48)
Cincinnati (42)
Washington (41)
NC State (28)
Arizona (27)
St Joseph's (14)
South Florida (10)
Illinois (9)
Colorado St (8)
VCU (8)
Minnesota (5)

* UConn won in OT at Villanova last night so they are comfortably in the field for now. 
** Texas lost to Baylor last night which likely puts NU ahead of them and off the "last four in" list.

Below we list those games from kenpom.com's view of the world with games ordered from most compelling to least compelling (i.e., kenpom's "Thrill Score").

Bubble Games (Win Probability %)
Michigan (52%) at Northwestern; Predicted Score 66-65
Georgetown (62%) at Seton Hall; 61-59
North Carolina (72%) at NC State; 81-74
Xavier at U Mass (58%); 76-74
New Mexico (78%) at Colorado St; 71-63
Miami FL (66%) at Maryland; 70-65
Kentucky (87%) at Mississippi St; 77-64
Illinois at Ohio St (95%); 72-54

On paper only Miami FL is expected to win tonight.  Of the other seven bubble teams in action NU stands the best chance for an upset.  Here's to hoping that the games go to chalk tonight (except that we hope Northwestern wins of course!).

Other games of note (for NU's RPI):
Evansville at Creighton (84%)
Stony Brook (81%) at Hartford
Clemson (56%) at Georgia Tech