Northwestern's (12-8, 2-6) narrow loss to Purdue (15-7, 5-4) jeopardizes NU's NCAAs dreams. To be sure there is still a chance of it happening. It's just an uphill battle now which places a greater importance on NU executing near peak performance for the duration of the season.
We should know by Valentine's Day what be the dealio. It is at that point that NU will be 2/3rds of the way through the B1G season, and it is imperative that NU's conference record be at least 5-7. To get there NU must take care of business at home against Nebraska and Iowa. We like our chances there. To get that third victory NU must avenge a narrow loss when it travels to Illinois or Purdue. According to kenpom.com between those two games NU has a 50/50 chance of winning one of them. Sooner or later NU will get back to winning these coin flip type games right?
When it was not turning the ball over a shorthanded Northwestern squad actually held its own quite well against Purdue yesterday. Purdue scored 21 points off an uncharacteristically high 16 Northwestern turnovers. In a game that came down to a Robbie Hummel runner on the baseline with 8 seconds to play it is fair to say that turnovers cost NU this game.
Northwestern's "Big Two" came to play. Drew Crawford had 23 points on 9-16 shooting including 4-7 from distance. Johnny Shurna poured in 15 points on 6-11 shooting and 2-5 from distance (including the miss on a last ditch heave as the clock expired). The two also collected 8 and 7 rebounds, respectively.
In the turnover department Reggie Hearn, Davide Curletti and Crawford had 5, 4 and 4, respectively. Purdue is one of the better B1G teams in turning their opponents over, but those figures are outrageous especially considering that Curletti and Hearn logged just 26 and 29 minutes respectively.
If the Michigan State game was Curletti's high water mark then this game may have been his low point. His +/- was -15 and his Roland Rating was -28. Zoinks! Here are the gory second half details behind those figures. Northwestern struggled to produce offense in this game until the 16:30 mark when Alex Marcotullio subbed in for Davide Curletti. Sparked by Marcotullio's insertion into the lineup NU went on a 15-2 run over the next 4:30 NU to erase a 9 point deficit and build a 40-36 lead. With Curletti back in the lineup Purdue regained control by outscoring 18-9. With Curletti back on the bench NU then outscored Purdue 7-2 to knot the game at 56. Curletti subbed back into the game for Crawford on Purdue's final possession, and we know what happened there.
We didn't plan this to be a rant against Curletti, and it is a
bit unfair to lay this loss on him because this is a team game. But the stats are pretty damning. Luka Mirkovic is a favorite punching bag for NU fans, but we have to wonder if the outcome of this game wouldn't have been different if he had been able to play (he was in a boot with a twisted ankle). We have to believe he would've provide a little more than 1-5 shooting, 0-2 from the charity stripe and 4 turnovers. In the ultimate making lemonade scenario, Luka's slow foot speed also probably would've prevented him from being in position to muck up a Reggie Hearn steal out of the 1-3-1 like Curletti did.
So NU has finished January on a low note. Let's make this a February to, ummmm, Them Drew Bury. Next up NU plays host to Nebraska for the first time on Thursday. Thanks to the loss to Purdue this is a must win game. NU will be a sizable favorite in the game so a loss to the Cornhuskers would be inexcusable especially since NU has been backed into a corner.
29 January 2012
27 January 2012
MINNESOTA 75 Northwestern 52 (F)
Northwestern (12-7, 2-5) got housed at The Barn. When the gates
opened NU was not ready to run, digging itself a hole so deep with an
0-fer 15 shooting slump that the game essentially over by halftime.
Aside from Alex Marcotullio, who had one of his best games of the year,
this was a collective team stinker of a game.
The team shot a forgettable 33% from the field, 31% from beyond the arc and 40% from the charity stripe. NU once again got crushed on the boards 35-20, but we can't get too bent out of shape about it since this kind of imbalance is a natural outcome when your team lays up a ton of bricks and the opponent shoots lights out (the Gophers shot 58% from the field). Drew Crawford shot 2-10, had 3 rebounds, no assists and 2 turnovers in 30 minutes of play. Shurna chucked his way to 21 points but took 21 shots to do so. Sobolewski went 0-5, and worse yet had just one assist to three turnovers. Yuck.
This was NU's worst loss of the season with potentially crippling effects on its bid to make the NCAAs. NU hadn't looked this bad in a game since a fangless Central Connecticut squad came to Evanston in mid-December and nearly won a game against a listless NU squad.
There has been some talk that tired legs were the reason for NU's poor results at Minnyhaha. There is probably some truth to that given NU's inexplicably miserable free throw shooting efforts (8-20 as a team including Shurna 2-8 and Crawford 1-4). The fact of the matter is that Johnny S and Drew C have logged way too many minutes this season, and we may be seeing the fallout from this substitution pattern or lack thereof. If we were in Coach Carmody's shoes we'd probably do the same thing since Shurna and Crawford are indispensable and injuries have decimated the team's depth. It is what it is.
We find the tired legs explanation to be overblown. Teams can and do have bad shooting nights regadless of any fatigue effects. We are confident that the Minnesota game was just one of those nights and expect NU to show no hangover effects in tomorrow's game against Purdue (14-7, 4-4). A week off to rest up and get angry about their effort in M-polis doesn't hurt the cause.
Despite a 2-5 record the NCAAs watch is still on. As we wrote before conference play began NU needs to finish 3-3 during this second trimester of the conference season. Home games against Purdue, Nebraska, and Iowa look to be the most likely games to collect those three wins, but the two away games at Illinois or Purdue also provide a good opportunity to make up for lost ground if NU slips up in any of these games at the Welsh.
The team shot a forgettable 33% from the field, 31% from beyond the arc and 40% from the charity stripe. NU once again got crushed on the boards 35-20, but we can't get too bent out of shape about it since this kind of imbalance is a natural outcome when your team lays up a ton of bricks and the opponent shoots lights out (the Gophers shot 58% from the field). Drew Crawford shot 2-10, had 3 rebounds, no assists and 2 turnovers in 30 minutes of play. Shurna chucked his way to 21 points but took 21 shots to do so. Sobolewski went 0-5, and worse yet had just one assist to three turnovers. Yuck.
This was NU's worst loss of the season with potentially crippling effects on its bid to make the NCAAs. NU hadn't looked this bad in a game since a fangless Central Connecticut squad came to Evanston in mid-December and nearly won a game against a listless NU squad.
There has been some talk that tired legs were the reason for NU's poor results at Minnyhaha. There is probably some truth to that given NU's inexplicably miserable free throw shooting efforts (8-20 as a team including Shurna 2-8 and Crawford 1-4). The fact of the matter is that Johnny S and Drew C have logged way too many minutes this season, and we may be seeing the fallout from this substitution pattern or lack thereof. If we were in Coach Carmody's shoes we'd probably do the same thing since Shurna and Crawford are indispensable and injuries have decimated the team's depth. It is what it is.
We find the tired legs explanation to be overblown. Teams can and do have bad shooting nights regadless of any fatigue effects. We are confident that the Minnesota game was just one of those nights and expect NU to show no hangover effects in tomorrow's game against Purdue (14-7, 4-4). A week off to rest up and get angry about their effort in M-polis doesn't hurt the cause.
Despite a 2-5 record the NCAAs watch is still on. As we wrote before conference play began NU needs to finish 3-3 during this second trimester of the conference season. Home games against Purdue, Nebraska, and Iowa look to be the most likely games to collect those three wins, but the two away games at Illinois or Purdue also provide a good opportunity to make up for lost ground if NU slips up in any of these games at the Welsh.
19 January 2012
WISCONSIN 77 Northwestern 57 (F)
It was a one man Mike Bruesewitz show for Wisconsin (15-5, 4-3) in the first half. Ryan Evans and Jason Taylor showed up after halftime and the Badgers coasted to another easy victory over Northwestern (12-6, 2-4) at the Kohl Center.
Despite shooting 54.5% from the floor as a team and 60% from beyond the arc as a team NU still trailed 34-32 at the half. Bruesewitz helped Wisconsin keep pace with Northwestern behind 5-6 shooting including 2-2 from beyond the arc for a total of 12 points. No other Badger had more than 5 points.
Northwestern fans dreamed of an upset at halftime, but it was not meant to be after Jason Taylor heated up from behind the arc and helped Wisconsin go on a 14-0 run to bury NU in a 55-38 hole. With Wisconsin's slow play and stellar defense it was effectively game over from that point on.
Such is life on the road in the B1G especially for NU at Madtown. We said in our pregame snipet that the Badgers were due to come around on offense, and that came true in the second half of yesterday's game. Next up is a roadie to Minneapolis to take on the Gophers (14-5, 2-4). This game presents a real opportunity for not only padding the NCAAs resume with a nice road win but also for position jockeying with another team in the NCAA bubble discussion and sits at 2-4 in the standings. Unlike some fans we will not go so far as to say this is a must win since kenpom.com projects NU to meet its 9-9 target even with a projected loss at Minnesota. Never the less a victory would be important to help NU build some cushion for the stretch run. This game is winnable especially if we can get Marco or Cobb healthy and back into the lineup after not even making the trip up to Madtown.
Despite shooting 54.5% from the floor as a team and 60% from beyond the arc as a team NU still trailed 34-32 at the half. Bruesewitz helped Wisconsin keep pace with Northwestern behind 5-6 shooting including 2-2 from beyond the arc for a total of 12 points. No other Badger had more than 5 points.
Northwestern fans dreamed of an upset at halftime, but it was not meant to be after Jason Taylor heated up from behind the arc and helped Wisconsin go on a 14-0 run to bury NU in a 55-38 hole. With Wisconsin's slow play and stellar defense it was effectively game over from that point on.
Such is life on the road in the B1G especially for NU at Madtown. We said in our pregame snipet that the Badgers were due to come around on offense, and that came true in the second half of yesterday's game. Next up is a roadie to Minneapolis to take on the Gophers (14-5, 2-4). This game presents a real opportunity for not only padding the NCAAs resume with a nice road win but also for position jockeying with another team in the NCAA bubble discussion and sits at 2-4 in the standings. Unlike some fans we will not go so far as to say this is a must win since kenpom.com projects NU to meet its 9-9 target even with a projected loss at Minnesota. Never the less a victory would be important to help NU build some cushion for the stretch run. This game is winnable especially if we can get Marco or Cobb healthy and back into the lineup after not even making the trip up to Madtown.
14 January 2012
NORTHWESTERN 81 Michigan State 74 (F)
We are grateful for this great team victory for a number of reasons. First it puts NU (12-5, 2-3) at 2 wins for the very difficult opening trimester of the B1G slate. With a difficult trip coming up to Madtown that will round out the first trimester a win tonight was important to keep NU on track to sneak into the NCAAs. Second with another three difficult games on deck the win keeps NU from enduring a potentially long losing streak which helps immensely with this team's mental attitude. And last but not least is that it staves off the circling anti-Carmody vultures for the time being which means no immediate need for another rant from our associate editor who wears his heart on his sleeve especially after a night of indulgent imbibation.
Anywho things did not look promising during the first 10 minutes of the game when #6/7 Sparty (15-3, 4-1) rode hot shooting and nice low post feeds to a 25-16 margin. Sparty could've stretched the lead to double digits and really had the Spartan faithful roaring from the rafters, but instead an Alex Marcotullio steal that was converted into a Drew Crawford bomb brought some air back into the building and narrowed the deficit to 6 points. The deficit was then cut to 4 when Davide Curletti stole a rebound from Sparty and converted the offensive board.
NU stuck with MSU the rest of the first half with the game shifting gears after two Alex Marcotullio bombs the first of which knotted the game at 33 to give NU its first tie since 4 all and the second one giving NU a 36-34 lead. Sparty responded with a trey of its own, but a desperation 25' foot Shurna prayer was answered with a few seconds to go, and NU took a 39-37 lead into halftime.
NU opened the second stanza with a backdoor layup from Sobo to Hearn, and it was at that point that it appeared that the second half may very well look like the latter part of the first half. Good news! NU held its lead and even stretched it to double digits around the midway point of the second half. Sparty managed to slice the gap to 5 points with a quick 7-0 run aided by a turnover and hoop when two Spartans converged on Reggie Hearn near midcourt to pick pocket him and get a break away layup.
The tension at that point was palpable since NU fans have been conditioned to expect the worst. Except this time NU responded to the challenge by taking the ball to the hoop, getting fouled, and then converting free throws. With crisis averted NU went on to rebuild its double digit lead with less than 5 minutes to play, and NU played loose and coasted to victory the rest of the way.
Davide Curletti was a surprise starter in the game, and boy did he deliver! As we said prior to the season Davide is good for a handful of good games, and this may have very well been the best performance of his career. Davided had three very important offensive rebounds that he converted into points, and on the evening he netted 17 points on 5-7 shooting including 1-1 from beyond the arc. Better yet is that Davide departed from his propensity to hack opponents as he ended with 4 fouls over 36 minutes of run and didn't pick up his last foul until the game was effectively over. Davide also had 4 assists, 2 steal, and a block to round out his sparkling afternoon.
NU's "big two" also showed up with Crawford banking 20 points on 8-14 shooting including 3-5 from downtown. Despite only shooting 5-14 from the floor Shurna had a game high 22 points thanks to 10-11 shooting from the charity stripe. Johnny also had 5 assists, no turnovers, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in 40 minutes of play.
Reggie Hearn had an extremely efficient 29 minutes scoring 10 points on 5-6 shooting and also grabbed two important offensive rebounds. Dave Sobolewski didn't have a good day shooting the rock (1-6, 0-3) but he filled his role as floor general quite well and wound up with 7 assists to just 1 turnover. It makes us smile to think we can look forward to seeing Sobo in purple (or should we say black?) for another 3+ years.
The biggest reason for NU's victory was that NU held its own on the boards against the mean green rebounding machine (NU had 19 boards to MSU's 24). Another key was that NU had just 7 turnovers to Sparty's 14. Had NU turned the ball over more Sparty very well could've won this game as Appling did a very good job of pushing the ball up the court and converting easy hoops before NU could set its defense. Lastly NU did a good job of getting to the charity stripe and had 29 attempts in the game. This aggressiveness has been an emerging trend so far in conference and is a nice departure from past Carmody teams.
Next up is a roadie to Madison to take on the Badgers on Wednesday Jan 18 at 8PM Central. Bucky has had some surprising difficulty early in the B1G slate and is sitting at just 2-3 despite winning its last game 67-62 at Purdue. The knock on Bucky is that their offense is just bad enough to give them fits despite a very good defense. We don't really buy that and expect Wisconsin to right the ship just as they did in the 2008-09 season when they started out 3-6 in conference but finished the regular season on a 7-2 tear. The Kohl Center has been a house of horrors for NU, and we expect more of the same this year. Kenpom.com gives NU just a 7% shot at victory which sounds about right to us. Still Iowa was able to come out of Madison with a 72-65 victory so you just never know.
Anywho things did not look promising during the first 10 minutes of the game when #6/7 Sparty (15-3, 4-1) rode hot shooting and nice low post feeds to a 25-16 margin. Sparty could've stretched the lead to double digits and really had the Spartan faithful roaring from the rafters, but instead an Alex Marcotullio steal that was converted into a Drew Crawford bomb brought some air back into the building and narrowed the deficit to 6 points. The deficit was then cut to 4 when Davide Curletti stole a rebound from Sparty and converted the offensive board.
NU stuck with MSU the rest of the first half with the game shifting gears after two Alex Marcotullio bombs the first of which knotted the game at 33 to give NU its first tie since 4 all and the second one giving NU a 36-34 lead. Sparty responded with a trey of its own, but a desperation 25' foot Shurna prayer was answered with a few seconds to go, and NU took a 39-37 lead into halftime.
NU opened the second stanza with a backdoor layup from Sobo to Hearn, and it was at that point that it appeared that the second half may very well look like the latter part of the first half. Good news! NU held its lead and even stretched it to double digits around the midway point of the second half. Sparty managed to slice the gap to 5 points with a quick 7-0 run aided by a turnover and hoop when two Spartans converged on Reggie Hearn near midcourt to pick pocket him and get a break away layup.
The tension at that point was palpable since NU fans have been conditioned to expect the worst. Except this time NU responded to the challenge by taking the ball to the hoop, getting fouled, and then converting free throws. With crisis averted NU went on to rebuild its double digit lead with less than 5 minutes to play, and NU played loose and coasted to victory the rest of the way.
Davide Curletti was a surprise starter in the game, and boy did he deliver! As we said prior to the season Davide is good for a handful of good games, and this may have very well been the best performance of his career. Davided had three very important offensive rebounds that he converted into points, and on the evening he netted 17 points on 5-7 shooting including 1-1 from beyond the arc. Better yet is that Davide departed from his propensity to hack opponents as he ended with 4 fouls over 36 minutes of run and didn't pick up his last foul until the game was effectively over. Davide also had 4 assists, 2 steal, and a block to round out his sparkling afternoon.
NU's "big two" also showed up with Crawford banking 20 points on 8-14 shooting including 3-5 from downtown. Despite only shooting 5-14 from the floor Shurna had a game high 22 points thanks to 10-11 shooting from the charity stripe. Johnny also had 5 assists, no turnovers, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in 40 minutes of play.
Reggie Hearn had an extremely efficient 29 minutes scoring 10 points on 5-6 shooting and also grabbed two important offensive rebounds. Dave Sobolewski didn't have a good day shooting the rock (1-6, 0-3) but he filled his role as floor general quite well and wound up with 7 assists to just 1 turnover. It makes us smile to think we can look forward to seeing Sobo in purple (or should we say black?) for another 3+ years.
The biggest reason for NU's victory was that NU held its own on the boards against the mean green rebounding machine (NU had 19 boards to MSU's 24). Another key was that NU had just 7 turnovers to Sparty's 14. Had NU turned the ball over more Sparty very well could've won this game as Appling did a very good job of pushing the ball up the court and converting easy hoops before NU could set its defense. Lastly NU did a good job of getting to the charity stripe and had 29 attempts in the game. This aggressiveness has been an emerging trend so far in conference and is a nice departure from past Carmody teams.
Next up is a roadie to Madison to take on the Badgers on Wednesday Jan 18 at 8PM Central. Bucky has had some surprising difficulty early in the B1G slate and is sitting at just 2-3 despite winning its last game 67-62 at Purdue. The knock on Bucky is that their offense is just bad enough to give them fits despite a very good defense. We don't really buy that and expect Wisconsin to right the ship just as they did in the 2008-09 season when they started out 3-6 in conference but finished the regular season on a 7-2 tear. The Kohl Center has been a house of horrors for NU, and we expect more of the same this year. Kenpom.com gives NU just a 7% shot at victory which sounds about right to us. Still Iowa was able to come out of Madison with a 72-65 victory so you just never know.
12 January 2012
Op Ed: Grow some SACK Wildcat fans!
Apologies in advance to our even handed blog meister and the yin to my yang, but I really don't give a damn about decorum right now. Censor me if you want, but I've had enough of all these spineless "NU fans" who are wetting their pants and crying home to their mommies about last night's loss. Why should they be the only ones allowed to vent their frustrations and whine like little babies to their hearts content?
No. Listen up, fools. I don't know what the hell you were expecting to happen in Ann Arbor, but let me remind you that NU was a 9 point underdog. So now that we were just a bobbled rebound out of bounds, an awful Sobo turnover under our hoop that turned into 2 points, a Reggie Hearn taking his eye of the ball and losing it out of bounds, a botched Marco breakaway layup, or an awful charging call on Shurna that erased a bucket away from winning on the road against the #13 team in the nation, it is now clear that this team has no chance of the NCAAs, that Carmody should be fired, that this team doesn't know how to win, that you're not going to watch/attend anymore games, blah ef'ing blah????
Do you morons even realize that Michigan is UNDEFEATED in Ann Arbor? How about the fact that Wisconsin just got obliterated there? And, oh yeah, they're ranked #13 (it's worth reiterating). Or, that NU's power rankings have actually IMPROVED after last night's loss?
Look it. I get that you are sick and tired of waiting for the NCAAs. I am, too. I get that people are especially frustrated because this season is supposed to be the last good chance of making it happen with Shurna graduating. I even get the fans will be fans, and this sky is falling crap is all too common.
What pisses me off is that this outcry is even greater than normal when it came after an arguably decent performance by NU. It also pisses me off that we are just 4 games into an 18+ game big ten season, and you're writing this team off already. Yah. I get it that you're all so smart and know that just because NU has lost to 5 ranked teams that NU doesn't belong and has no chance at the NCAAs. It is all so EF'ING CLEAR now isn't it?
Let's see what some of the most common complaints are. One of my personal favorites is that NU doesn't know how to win. Are you all DERANGED? Or, is it AMNESIA? NU was one of the luckiest team in the nation before these last two losses. For the totally clueless, that means that NU had pulled out more close games than nearly every other team in the nation. Did you even watch the tournament in Charleston? NU won three straight close games down there. But who am I to say that facts should get in the way of a good rant?
Another fav is the conclusion that Carmody was an idiot for not sticking with the small lineup. Yah, Carmody is such an idiot that he couldn't see for himself that the small lineup was working, and just decided to ditch it for no particularly good reason. WTF is going through your heads? Has it ever even occurred to you that Carmody had NO CHOICE but to go back to the big lineup because Marco's toe wouldn't allow him to play and because Cobb was forced to sit the entire game with injury? No, that would be just to damn logical for this kangaroo court. Or, if accepted, I'm sure these nit wits will just use it as an indictment against Carmody's recruiting (and once again conveniently ignore all of the other, bigger reasons for why NU can't exactly take its pick of the litter).
Carmody was an idiot for blowing all his timeouts in the second half, right? I bet the whiners complaining about this are the very same people who complained in the past the Carmody doesn't use timeouts to stop runs. Sorry, Carmody, it's once again damned if you and damned if you don't!
I won't even get into the fact that everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, has concluded that NU needs to play better defense to have a shot at the NCAAs. Oh wait I just did. Ef it. What have we seen over the last two losses? Why, it's BETTER EF'ING DEFENSE!!! Yet there is hardly any mention of this positive as it really doesn't fit with the fire Carmody agenda.
I also like the people who say the Seton Hall win was not that good because they weren't playing that well back in November. Seriously? Yeah, I can play that game and make all kinds of dumb ef'ing statements to say that NU is a lock for the NCAAs. Sure, NU has lost to Illinois and Michigan, but the Illini and Wolverines played GREAT. Michigan just blew out Wisconsin, and Illinois just beat Ohio State! Not to mention the fact that NU played poorly in both games and still managed to nearly win. If and when NU puts it all together in the very near future, you better watch the ef out big ten teams!!
OK. I feel better now. I see that Roger took the high road to catharsis by recounting the close losses over the years. Pusses take the high road. Just kidding, Rog. I love your blog and style. I'll fade back into the wood work for now.
No. Listen up, fools. I don't know what the hell you were expecting to happen in Ann Arbor, but let me remind you that NU was a 9 point underdog. So now that we were just a bobbled rebound out of bounds, an awful Sobo turnover under our hoop that turned into 2 points, a Reggie Hearn taking his eye of the ball and losing it out of bounds, a botched Marco breakaway layup, or an awful charging call on Shurna that erased a bucket away from winning on the road against the #13 team in the nation, it is now clear that this team has no chance of the NCAAs, that Carmody should be fired, that this team doesn't know how to win, that you're not going to watch/attend anymore games, blah ef'ing blah????
Do you morons even realize that Michigan is UNDEFEATED in Ann Arbor? How about the fact that Wisconsin just got obliterated there? And, oh yeah, they're ranked #13 (it's worth reiterating). Or, that NU's power rankings have actually IMPROVED after last night's loss?
Look it. I get that you are sick and tired of waiting for the NCAAs. I am, too. I get that people are especially frustrated because this season is supposed to be the last good chance of making it happen with Shurna graduating. I even get the fans will be fans, and this sky is falling crap is all too common.
What pisses me off is that this outcry is even greater than normal when it came after an arguably decent performance by NU. It also pisses me off that we are just 4 games into an 18+ game big ten season, and you're writing this team off already. Yah. I get it that you're all so smart and know that just because NU has lost to 5 ranked teams that NU doesn't belong and has no chance at the NCAAs. It is all so EF'ING CLEAR now isn't it?
Let's see what some of the most common complaints are. One of my personal favorites is that NU doesn't know how to win. Are you all DERANGED? Or, is it AMNESIA? NU was one of the luckiest team in the nation before these last two losses. For the totally clueless, that means that NU had pulled out more close games than nearly every other team in the nation. Did you even watch the tournament in Charleston? NU won three straight close games down there. But who am I to say that facts should get in the way of a good rant?
Another fav is the conclusion that Carmody was an idiot for not sticking with the small lineup. Yah, Carmody is such an idiot that he couldn't see for himself that the small lineup was working, and just decided to ditch it for no particularly good reason. WTF is going through your heads? Has it ever even occurred to you that Carmody had NO CHOICE but to go back to the big lineup because Marco's toe wouldn't allow him to play and because Cobb was forced to sit the entire game with injury? No, that would be just to damn logical for this kangaroo court. Or, if accepted, I'm sure these nit wits will just use it as an indictment against Carmody's recruiting (and once again conveniently ignore all of the other, bigger reasons for why NU can't exactly take its pick of the litter).
Carmody was an idiot for blowing all his timeouts in the second half, right? I bet the whiners complaining about this are the very same people who complained in the past the Carmody doesn't use timeouts to stop runs. Sorry, Carmody, it's once again damned if you and damned if you don't!
I won't even get into the fact that everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, has concluded that NU needs to play better defense to have a shot at the NCAAs. Oh wait I just did. Ef it. What have we seen over the last two losses? Why, it's BETTER EF'ING DEFENSE!!! Yet there is hardly any mention of this positive as it really doesn't fit with the fire Carmody agenda.
I also like the people who say the Seton Hall win was not that good because they weren't playing that well back in November. Seriously? Yeah, I can play that game and make all kinds of dumb ef'ing statements to say that NU is a lock for the NCAAs. Sure, NU has lost to Illinois and Michigan, but the Illini and Wolverines played GREAT. Michigan just blew out Wisconsin, and Illinois just beat Ohio State! Not to mention the fact that NU played poorly in both games and still managed to nearly win. If and when NU puts it all together in the very near future, you better watch the ef out big ten teams!!
OK. I feel better now. I see that Roger took the high road to catharsis by recounting the close losses over the years. Pusses take the high road. Just kidding, Rog. I love your blog and style. I'll fade back into the wood work for now.
MICHIGAN 66 Northwestern 64 (F-OT)
Northwestern (11-5, 1-3) managed to one-up the torture factor from last week's game squeaker of a loss to the Illini. This go around NU shot out to a 7 point halftime lead, but Michigan went on a 12-0 run in the second half to even the scales and force the game into overtime. Northwestern had a chance to send the game into a second OT with a three point deficit and Alex Marcotullio shooting three free throws with 0.3 seconds left. Marcotullio clanged the first attempt, and that was that.
This game was a golden opportunity to atone for the loss to Illinois, but NU simply didn't get it done. Northwestern is back in action at the Welsh at 2PM Saturday when it takes on a Michigan State (15-2, 0-4) team that sits alone atop a stacked B1G. With the first trimester ending in Madison next Wed Jan 18 this game against Spartica is a near "must win" if NU hopes to get back on track to a 2-4 record and leave some wiggle room for the NCAAs. The dream ain't dead yet, but it is in critical condition.
This game was a golden opportunity to atone for the loss to Illinois, but NU simply didn't get it done. Northwestern is back in action at the Welsh at 2PM Saturday when it takes on a Michigan State (15-2, 0-4) team that sits alone atop a stacked B1G. With the first trimester ending in Madison next Wed Jan 18 this game against Spartica is a near "must win" if NU hopes to get back on track to a 2-4 record and leave some wiggle room for the NCAAs. The dream ain't dead yet, but it is in critical condition.
09 January 2012
Illinois 57 NORTHWESTERN 56 (F)
It was not a surprise that Northwestern (12-4, 1-2) lost to Illinois (14-3, 3-1). That NU lost in a closely contested DEFENSIVE struggle was.
The Welsh was packed, and the game looked promising for the Wildcats in the first half as NU extended to a 10 point lead with about 2 minutes to play. The Illini scored two buckets to close out the half with some momentum despite trailing 36-31. No big deal right? Wrong. NU came out and scored the first bucket of the second half, but the Illini went on a 11-0 run over the next few minutes to take a 4 point lead. Over the next 5 minutes Illinois "outscored" NU 2-1 to extend to a 44-39 lead with 11 minutes to play.
The two teams exchange body blows with occasional baskets until the Illini built a 55-47 lead with less than 2 minutes to play. NU made a furious comeback to knot the game at 56, but the Illini got to the line to make 1-2 free throws after a no-call on what could've been a game changing Drew Crawford attempt to draw a charge. Drew Crawford corralled the missed free throw attempt with 6 seconds left, dribbled the ball deep the length of the court and into the lane where his attempt to shoot over 7'1" Myers Leonard was swatted away as the clock expired.
This loss hurts. To keep on track for the NCAAs NU must now steal one of the next three games (@Michigan, Michigan State, @Wisconsin), and NU will be a considerable underdog in each of these games. It is always tough to win on the road so Michigan State may be NU's best shot at a win. However next up is a trip to Ann Arbor on Wednesday where Drew Crawford did have a special game at Crisler two years ago so we got that going for us. For their part Michigan (13-3, 3-1) is riding a wave of momentum after crushing Wisconsin 59-41 at Crisler.
The Welsh was packed, and the game looked promising for the Wildcats in the first half as NU extended to a 10 point lead with about 2 minutes to play. The Illini scored two buckets to close out the half with some momentum despite trailing 36-31. No big deal right? Wrong. NU came out and scored the first bucket of the second half, but the Illini went on a 11-0 run over the next few minutes to take a 4 point lead. Over the next 5 minutes Illinois "outscored" NU 2-1 to extend to a 44-39 lead with 11 minutes to play.
The two teams exchange body blows with occasional baskets until the Illini built a 55-47 lead with less than 2 minutes to play. NU made a furious comeback to knot the game at 56, but the Illini got to the line to make 1-2 free throws after a no-call on what could've been a game changing Drew Crawford attempt to draw a charge. Drew Crawford corralled the missed free throw attempt with 6 seconds left, dribbled the ball deep the length of the court and into the lane where his attempt to shoot over 7'1" Myers Leonard was swatted away as the clock expired.
This loss hurts. To keep on track for the NCAAs NU must now steal one of the next three games (@Michigan, Michigan State, @Wisconsin), and NU will be a considerable underdog in each of these games. It is always tough to win on the road so Michigan State may be NU's best shot at a win. However next up is a trip to Ann Arbor on Wednesday where Drew Crawford did have a special game at Crisler two years ago so we got that going for us. For their part Michigan (13-3, 3-1) is riding a wave of momentum after crushing Wisconsin 59-41 at Crisler.
02 January 2012
NORTHWESTERN 68 Penn St 56 (F)
A surprisingly well attended Welsh Ryan Arena could not coax NU's offense to wake up during a forgettable first half against a graduation-depleted, Ed Dechellis-less Penn State squad. Coach Carmody tore the team a collective new one during halftime, and NU responded with a well-oiled offensive output in the second half. A twelve point home win against the Nittany Lions is hardly something to get overly excited about, but the second half in which NU outscored Penn St 45-30 is a sign of what this team is capable of doing when they come to play.
The hope now is that NU can build upon confidence from this victory and grab another home victory when Illinois invades the Welsh on Wednesday evening. The game is projected to be tight which should make for a good atmosphere as the Illini fans descend upon Evanston in large numbers. It is important that NU gets off the blocks fast in this game. A Northwestern victory would help carry the team through the next dozen games which is the real meat grinder portion of the B1G schedule.
Aside from DJ Richardson the Illini are not a very good outside shooting team. Illinois is much improved down low this year with a rapidly developing Myers Leonard manning the center spot. On paper this game screams for liberal deployment of zone defenses to help our centers defend the paint and encourage the Illini to become a perimeter-oriented team. Just make sure not to wander too far from Richardson!
The hope now is that NU can build upon confidence from this victory and grab another home victory when Illinois invades the Welsh on Wednesday evening. The game is projected to be tight which should make for a good atmosphere as the Illini fans descend upon Evanston in large numbers. It is important that NU gets off the blocks fast in this game. A Northwestern victory would help carry the team through the next dozen games which is the real meat grinder portion of the B1G schedule.
Aside from DJ Richardson the Illini are not a very good outside shooting team. Illinois is much improved down low this year with a rapidly developing Myers Leonard manning the center spot. On paper this game screams for liberal deployment of zone defenses to help our centers defend the paint and encourage the Illini to become a perimeter-oriented team. Just make sure not to wander too far from Richardson!
29 December 2011
OHIO STATE 87 NU 54 (F)
The bad news is that NU started off B1G play with a thud when they were obliterated by Ohio State in Columbus. The good news is that it was the last game was 2011, and NU can turn a new page in 2012 as it hosts woeful Penn State on New Year's day.
It is very difficult to find a silver lining from yesterday's game. Maybe we could point to Dave Sobolewski holding his own against the #2 team in the land by being aggressive and attacking the rim (10 points including 5-7 on FTs). That's a stretch and really is about it. Things got very ugly for NU starting about 8 minutes into the game. The final 2:30 of the game probably summarizes this game the best. During this stretch NU's first string was outscored by the end of OSU's bench 6-0. Woof!
Even though the Welsh is likely to be dead on Jan 1 this is just about as good a time as any for Penn State to visit the Welsh. NU needs a shot of confidence, and the clawless Nittany Lions are just what the doctor ordered. Since on paper this is the easiest W remaining on the schedule we are willing to allow that there is some urgency for a win on Sunday. However with 17 games remaining plus the conference tourney this ain't a "must win" game even though we are certain others will attempt to paint it as such. There is plenty of time remaining for NU to right the ship, and only something short of a 2-4 start to conference play would make us start to reach for the panic button.
It's time to take care of business. Show your mettle Johnny Shurna et al.!
It is very difficult to find a silver lining from yesterday's game. Maybe we could point to Dave Sobolewski holding his own against the #2 team in the land by being aggressive and attacking the rim (10 points including 5-7 on FTs). That's a stretch and really is about it. Things got very ugly for NU starting about 8 minutes into the game. The final 2:30 of the game probably summarizes this game the best. During this stretch NU's first string was outscored by the end of OSU's bench 6-0. Woof!
Even though the Welsh is likely to be dead on Jan 1 this is just about as good a time as any for Penn State to visit the Welsh. NU needs a shot of confidence, and the clawless Nittany Lions are just what the doctor ordered. Since on paper this is the easiest W remaining on the schedule we are willing to allow that there is some urgency for a win on Sunday. However with 17 games remaining plus the conference tourney this ain't a "must win" game even though we are certain others will attempt to paint it as such. There is plenty of time remaining for NU to right the ship, and only something short of a 2-4 start to conference play would make us start to reach for the panic button.
It's time to take care of business. Show your mettle Johnny Shurna et al.!
27 December 2011
B1G Power Rankings: Conference Eve Edition
1. Ohio State Don't be surprised if they hold this spot throughout.
2. Wisconsin Dominating defense.
3. Michigan State Legacy rights.
4. Indiana Drinking the candy stripe koolade. For now.
5. Purdue Hummel needs another threat to emerge.
6. Michigan Still meh on the Wolvies. Too much national media influence?
7. Northwestern Chicago's B1G Team!
8. Illinois Weber's seat is warming up.
9. Minnesota Impressed by post-Mbakwe showing. Can they do it in B1G play?
10. Nebraska Big drop off from #9.
11. Iowa At least they play fast.
12. Penn State NU better sweep these guys.
2. Wisconsin Dominating defense.
3. Michigan State Legacy rights.
4. Indiana Drinking the candy stripe koolade. For now.
5. Purdue Hummel needs another threat to emerge.
6. Michigan Still meh on the Wolvies. Too much national media influence?
7. Northwestern Chicago's B1G Team!
8. Illinois Weber's seat is warming up.
9. Minnesota Impressed by post-Mbakwe showing. Can they do it in B1G play?
10. Nebraska Big drop off from #9.
11. Iowa At least they play fast.
12. Penn State NU better sweep these guys.
23 December 2011
CREIGHTON 87 NU 79 (F)
The game went about as expected in the world as seen through kenpom's eyes. Due to highly efficient performances from both offenses the score was a bit higher than expected, but the post-game rankings for both teams and #21/23 Creighton's 72% win probability if the two teams laced 'em up again tonight in Omaha remain largely unchanged from pre-game expectations.
So if the game in fact went largely according to plan then why do NU fans suddenly feel so sure that NU doesn't have what it takes to make the NCAAs? Were there irrational expectations prior to last night's game? Maybe, but we think it's mostly typical post-game "the sky is falling" reaction to a loss from fans. In our view we have a hard time watching this game and concluding that the NCAAs dream is once again dead. To the contrary once time passes and the dust settles we are confident that we will be able to look back at this game as evidence that NU is very much in the mix for the NCAAs.
Here's why. Despite some questionable foul calls that we shrug off as typical home court bias and despite Creighton gaining nine points on NU over 5+ minutes while an unconscious Drew Crawford (34 points, 13-17, 3-4) was forced to sit with four fouls, the game hung in the balance with 8 minutes and the score knotted at 58. In a game played on the road against a ranked opponent in a very hostile environment that is a sign of a team that belongs.
Creighton managed to put the game on ice with a 20-10 run over the next five minutes. This run was partly a result of their figuring out the 1-3-1 but also from some fortunate Creighton bounces. The run started with a misguided three point shot that drew iron and bounced high off the glass to ultimately fall through the hoop. This was the second such lucky bounce for the BJs on a three pointer. Creighton then extended the lead to seven points when another BJ rattled home a three and got a freebie when the ref fell for the good old shooter flop and whistled Cobb for being in the proximity.
The ultimate dagger occurred around the 4 minute mark when NU failed to corral a rebound as Sobo and Mirk fought each other for the ball and knocked it out of bounds (can somebody please yell SAME!!!!????). NU had a chance to make amends by grabbing the ensuing rebound, but once again fate would have the ball bounce long and directly to a BJ). On the third opportunity Creighton got the ball down low to McDermott who laid the ball in for a 78-68 lead.
There is no denying that the BJs played well last night. But so did NU. If it were not for some questionable refereeing and some unfortunate bounces NU was positioned to sneak out of O-town with a top 25 roadie scalp. It was not meant to be, but NU will live on to fight for the NCAAs in conference. Conventional wisdom says 9-9 is the bar, and this team has it in them.
Next up is NU's first conference game at Columbus to take on #2/2 Ohio State. This game will undoubtedly be a huge challenge, but as with all challenges there comes opportunity. NU showed last year that it could hang with the Buckeyes in E-town and down in Indianapolis. We are penciling in a L but would not be surprised if NU hangs around to make the end of this game interesting.
So if the game in fact went largely according to plan then why do NU fans suddenly feel so sure that NU doesn't have what it takes to make the NCAAs? Were there irrational expectations prior to last night's game? Maybe, but we think it's mostly typical post-game "the sky is falling" reaction to a loss from fans. In our view we have a hard time watching this game and concluding that the NCAAs dream is once again dead. To the contrary once time passes and the dust settles we are confident that we will be able to look back at this game as evidence that NU is very much in the mix for the NCAAs.
Here's why. Despite some questionable foul calls that we shrug off as typical home court bias and despite Creighton gaining nine points on NU over 5+ minutes while an unconscious Drew Crawford (34 points, 13-17, 3-4) was forced to sit with four fouls, the game hung in the balance with 8 minutes and the score knotted at 58. In a game played on the road against a ranked opponent in a very hostile environment that is a sign of a team that belongs.
Creighton managed to put the game on ice with a 20-10 run over the next five minutes. This run was partly a result of their figuring out the 1-3-1 but also from some fortunate Creighton bounces. The run started with a misguided three point shot that drew iron and bounced high off the glass to ultimately fall through the hoop. This was the second such lucky bounce for the BJs on a three pointer. Creighton then extended the lead to seven points when another BJ rattled home a three and got a freebie when the ref fell for the good old shooter flop and whistled Cobb for being in the proximity.
The ultimate dagger occurred around the 4 minute mark when NU failed to corral a rebound as Sobo and Mirk fought each other for the ball and knocked it out of bounds (can somebody please yell SAME!!!!????). NU had a chance to make amends by grabbing the ensuing rebound, but once again fate would have the ball bounce long and directly to a BJ). On the third opportunity Creighton got the ball down low to McDermott who laid the ball in for a 78-68 lead.
There is no denying that the BJs played well last night. But so did NU. If it were not for some questionable refereeing and some unfortunate bounces NU was positioned to sneak out of O-town with a top 25 roadie scalp. It was not meant to be, but NU will live on to fight for the NCAAs in conference. Conventional wisdom says 9-9 is the bar, and this team has it in them.
Next up is NU's first conference game at Columbus to take on #2/2 Ohio State. This game will undoubtedly be a huge challenge, but as with all challenges there comes opportunity. NU showed last year that it could hang with the Buckeyes in E-town and down in Indianapolis. We are penciling in a L but would not be surprised if NU hangs around to make the end of this game interesting.
22 December 2011
On tonight's game at Creighton
We have been surprised to read how jacked the BJs are for this game. Coach McDermott has implored the good people of Omaha to rock the 17K seat house tonight. Not impressed? Wait there's more! The BJs have sent two free tickets to season ticket holders to help pack thy house. Not coincidentally the students are on break but let's be real. Creighton ain't exactly a national destination so chances are that student section will be packed with the sizable local student population who "went home" for the holidays.
BJ fans are also talking up the game. There is a long thread over at bluejayunderground that ponders when was the last time Creighton has hosted such a big game. Holy smokes! Not to belittle our beloved Wildcats but life must be quaint in good ol' O-town.
Did ya know that Coach McDermott only recruited his blossoming star of a son, Doug, only after he left Iowa State for the "hilltop"? If this were nationally broadcast there is little doubt we would've been force fed this info. As it is the national media have missed the ball on this exciting game and only a local affiliate is picking this game up. ESPN has added the game to their Full Court menu which makes us yawn even more than an ESPNU feed.
If there is a MO on McDermott coached teams it is that they play close to the vest. Fundamental man defense. Protect and share the ball on offense. Protect the defensive glass. McDermott is blessed with probably the best offensive team of his D1 career but is cursed with maybe his worst defensive outfit. Sound familiar?
NU is a 7 point dog tonight. That jives with kenpom's forecast which gives NU just a 28% chance at victory. Coach Carmody has defeated Coach McDermott twice in the past two years (at the Chicago tournament two years ago when he was at Iowa State and last year when the BJs were blown out of E-town). This is a game that NU very well could win. If it were in Evanston then we'd feel more confident.
BJ fans are also talking up the game. There is a long thread over at bluejayunderground that ponders when was the last time Creighton has hosted such a big game. Holy smokes! Not to belittle our beloved Wildcats but life must be quaint in good ol' O-town.
Did ya know that Coach McDermott only recruited his blossoming star of a son, Doug, only after he left Iowa State for the "hilltop"? If this were nationally broadcast there is little doubt we would've been force fed this info. As it is the national media have missed the ball on this exciting game and only a local affiliate is picking this game up. ESPN has added the game to their Full Court menu which makes us yawn even more than an ESPNU feed.
If there is a MO on McDermott coached teams it is that they play close to the vest. Fundamental man defense. Protect and share the ball on offense. Protect the defensive glass. McDermott is blessed with probably the best offensive team of his D1 career but is cursed with maybe his worst defensive outfit. Sound familiar?
NU is a 7 point dog tonight. That jives with kenpom's forecast which gives NU just a 28% chance at victory. Coach Carmody has defeated Coach McDermott twice in the past two years (at the Chicago tournament two years ago when he was at Iowa State and last year when the BJs were blown out of E-town). This is a game that NU very well could win. If it were in Evanston then we'd feel more confident.
20 December 2011
On NU's lucky 2011-12 season to date
Among primary ranking sites after 11 games in NU (10-1) is a bit of an enigma. Sagarin has NU at 33 and kenpom at 58. That doesn’t sound so far out of whack until you consider that Sagarin’s ranking is a weighted average of the ELO Chess (7) and Predictor (67) rankings. This large gap in Sagarin tends to happen when teams win several games by narrow margins. It can also be seen in kenpom’s luck statistic. So far in 2012 NU is the 8th
luckiest team.
Is it a good thing or a bad thing that NU has been lucky? And more to the point does it say anything about NU’s chances for making the NCAAs? We reviewed the past three years of kenpom data and found that of the 25 luckiest teams 8, 8, and 6 made the NCAAs in 2009-2011 respectively. That means nearly 30% of the 25 luckiest teams made the NCAAs whereas the rest of the teams had less than a 20% chance. Furthermore there were 7 BCS teams among the Top 25 across those years and of those only one did not make the NCAAs (#18 PSU in 2009 – which incidentally went on to win the NIT).
So the good news is that if NU can continue its lucky streak then the NCAAs look like a near fait accompli. The bad news is that there is no reason to expect NU will continue its lucky streak and hold the inexorable regression to the mean at bay.
Is it a good thing or a bad thing that NU has been lucky? And more to the point does it say anything about NU’s chances for making the NCAAs? We reviewed the past three years of kenpom data and found that of the 25 luckiest teams 8, 8, and 6 made the NCAAs in 2009-2011 respectively. That means nearly 30% of the 25 luckiest teams made the NCAAs whereas the rest of the teams had less than a 20% chance. Furthermore there were 7 BCS teams among the Top 25 across those years and of those only one did not make the NCAAs (#18 PSU in 2009 – which incidentally went on to win the NIT).
So the good news is that if NU can continue its lucky streak then the NCAAs look like a near fait accompli. The bad news is that there is no reason to expect NU will continue its lucky streak and hold the inexorable regression to the mean at bay.
19 December 2011
NU 87 E Ill 75 (F)
What a difference a day makes. Johnny Shurna couldn't do much in Saturday's game against CenConn. A day later he was unstoppable against Eastern Illinois. Shurna had 32 points (11-14, 9-12), 5 assists, and 2 blocked shots against the E Illers. In contrast Reggie Hearn, who tallied 17 crucial points in the narrow victory over CenConn,. was held scoreless last night. It's statistics like these which make it a fool's errand to try to get too fined tuned in one's game and player predictions.
The other player of note was favorite NU fanatic whipping boy Luka Mirkovic. In 29 minutes of play Luka netted 18 points (7-12, 0-1), grabbed 10 boards, and was 3 assists shy of a triple double. Not bad.
Next up is the much anticipated trip to Omaha to tangle with the Creighton Blue Jays who are hovering around the bottom of the national Top 25 rankings. Creighton plays at Tulsa tonight in what is sure to be a closely dissected game by NU fanatics in a futile attempt to forecast Thursday's game. We're hoping Creighton blows out Tulsa. It's much better that way than have the BJ's coming off a loss and feeling like they need to come out and prove something against NU.
The other player of note was favorite NU fanatic whipping boy Luka Mirkovic. In 29 minutes of play Luka netted 18 points (7-12, 0-1), grabbed 10 boards, and was 3 assists shy of a triple double. Not bad.
Next up is the much anticipated trip to Omaha to tangle with the Creighton Blue Jays who are hovering around the bottom of the national Top 25 rankings. Creighton plays at Tulsa tonight in what is sure to be a closely dissected game by NU fanatics in a futile attempt to forecast Thursday's game. We're hoping Creighton blows out Tulsa. It's much better that way than have the BJ's coming off a loss and feeling like they need to come out and prove something against NU.
17 December 2011
NU 70 CCSU 64 (F)
We've got to hand it to CenConn. They (principally frosh stud Kyle Vinales but also seniors Horton and Ptacek) came in ready to play, and they darn near won the game if it were not for poised play from Reggie Hearn and Drew Crawford down the stretch. JerShon Cobb is still getting back in the flow. His shooting eye is true (3-5, 9 points in 16 minutes), but he made a couple of sloppy passes (he wasn't alone). The center position played well as one would hope against an undersized opponent. And Dave Sobolewski made his best Juice Thompson ironman impression going 40 minutes.
Many people are gnashing their teeth over John Shurna's relatively poor game (3-14, 1-9 for 12 points in 36 minutes). Folks let's not lose our minds. Shurna is Shurna which is to say he is our all-star. Even all-stars can have a down game or three.
Next up for Northwestern (9-1) is Eastern Illinois (6-3) an also-ran in the Ohio Valley Conference. Unlike today's game this one should be another cupcake blowout. Game is on BTN. Huzzah for out-of-town studentatics who can finally catch a far away glimpse of this team.
Many people are gnashing their teeth over John Shurna's relatively poor game (3-14, 1-9 for 12 points in 36 minutes). Folks let's not lose our minds. Shurna is Shurna which is to say he is our all-star. Even all-stars can have a down game or three.
Next up for Northwestern (9-1) is Eastern Illinois (6-3) an also-ran in the Ohio Valley Conference. Unlike today's game this one should be another cupcake blowout. Game is on BTN. Huzzah for out-of-town studentatics who can finally catch a far away glimpse of this team.
15 December 2011
NU 81 Texas Southern 51 (F)
NU shot out to a 23-3 lead in the opening 10 minutes of this game and basically never looked back. That and the fact no one got injured are all one really needs to take away from the game. Alex Marcotullio sat out in a precautionary move for his turf toe. Good choice as his absence did not matter one iota.
We do have one bone to pick, and it's with WGN and the NU blogosphere who have repeatedly mentioned that this was NU's most lopsided victory of the year. While this is technically true if one looks solely at the final score, the reality is that this game wasn't quite as one sided as that MVSU game a couple of weeks ago when NU led by 41 points. In the first half!!! That game was easily the most lopsided NU victory in recent memory if not ever.
Moving on. Next up is Central Connecticut State of the Northeast Conference on Saturday. CenConn is one of the top programs in the NEC but that just means their cream filling is only slightly denser than Texas Southern which is one of the top programs in the SWAC. We last saw CenConn and Howie the Dick Dickenman two year ago when NU easily dispatched the CenConners 74-54. According to kenpom CenConn is similar in strength to Stony Brook. Someone get Coach C to point this out to the team so that they don't nearly sleepwalk their way to a loss like they did against SBU. Other than that let's just get a W and again with no season jeopardizing injuries. That is all.
We do have one bone to pick, and it's with WGN and the NU blogosphere who have repeatedly mentioned that this was NU's most lopsided victory of the year. While this is technically true if one looks solely at the final score, the reality is that this game wasn't quite as one sided as that MVSU game a couple of weeks ago when NU led by 41 points. In the first half!!! That game was easily the most lopsided NU victory in recent memory if not ever.
Moving on. Next up is Central Connecticut State of the Northeast Conference on Saturday. CenConn is one of the top programs in the NEC but that just means their cream filling is only slightly denser than Texas Southern which is one of the top programs in the SWAC. We last saw CenConn and Howie the Dick Dickenman two year ago when NU easily dispatched the CenConners 74-54. According to kenpom CenConn is similar in strength to Stony Brook. Someone get Coach C to point this out to the team so that they don't nearly sleepwalk their way to a loss like they did against SBU. Other than that let's just get a W and again with no season jeopardizing injuries. That is all.
It feels like midnight on Christmas Eve
The long wait is finally over. The much anticipated game against the Texas Southern, errrrr, "Southerners?" is nigh. The interwebs have been abuzz for a week, press row will be jammed pack, standing room only, the band a-blazin', the Welsh a-rockin'.
What's that? The students are on break? Skeleton band at best? The Southerners suck eggs? OK so this isn't the game of the year, but one thing is for sure--the players have been looking forward to washing out the taste of that ugly Baylor game for quite some time. We actually have been looking forward to this game because 10 days between games is far, far too long of a wait in college basketball.
What's that? The students are on break? Skeleton band at best? The Southerners suck eggs? OK so this isn't the game of the year, but one thing is for sure--the players have been looking forward to washing out the taste of that ugly Baylor game for quite some time. We actually have been looking forward to this game because 10 days between games is far, far too long of a wait in college basketball.
06 December 2011
NU's 2012 B1G Schedule Analysis
By now we have an initial feel for the B1G's overall strength as well as some familiarity with our conference foes. This is as good a time
as any to peak ahead at what's in store for NU next year in conference with an eye for what it will take for NU to finally get the monkey off its back and make the NCAAs.
In our estimation to be on the bubble NU will need to finish 8-10 in conference assuming a win at Creighton on December 22nd and otherwise 9-9. The bubble would burst if NU lost its first round B1G tourney game against a bottom B1G team. So how does this season shape up as NU once again strives to break through that NCAAs glass ceiling? As we did last year, we find it helpful to chart NU's course by first organizing NU’s conference games into four categories: Egg, Low Hanging Fruit, Bling, and Wheaties games.
Categorizing NU's B1G Schedule
Egg (2)
Egg games are those in which NU is projected to win at least 3/4ths of the time (per kenpom.com):
Penn State, Iowa
Low Hanging Fruit (6)
These are games that NU is projected to win but with less than a 75% probability:
Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan, at Penn St, at Iowa
Bling (5)
These are games that NU has between 25%-50% chance of winning:
at Michigan, Michigan St, at Minnesota, Purdue, at Illinois
Wheaties (5)
These games are those which NU has less than a one in four chance of winning:
at Ohio St, at Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Indiana, Ohio St
Plotting NU's B1G Schedule
Now the 18 game conference season is more of a marathon than a sprint. And as any experienced marathoner knows it is helpful to split a race into definable segments so as to plot progress and determine in real time whether one is ahead of pace, on pace, or behind pace. In deference to NU's academic system we break the B1G marathon into trimesters to benchmark's NU progress. Together with our the organized buckets of games above we are able to use this trimester framework and adjust for differences in schedule difficulty, or hill gradients if you will, along the set schedule/course.
First Trimester
Egg: Penn St
LHF: Illinois
Bling: at Michigan, Michigan St
Wheaties: at Ohio St, at Wisconsin
In recent years the schedule makers have shown an affinity for throwing NU right into the B1G fire. This year is no different. The six game first trimester features just two games in which NU is favored, and NU will be significant underdogs in two of the other four games. With this difficult start to the B1G slate a 2-4 start to conference season would not be ideal but should be taken in stride if it were to come to pass. A 1-5 start would be cause for concern while a 3-3 record (e.g., defending the Welsh) would be cause for optimism.
Second Trimester
Egg: Iowa
LHF: Nebraska
Bling: at Minnesota, Purdue, at Illinois
Wheaties: at Purdue
Once again NU is favored in only 2 of these 6 games although there is only one Wheaties game during this stretch. Assuming a 2-4 first trimester record anything worse than 3-3 record here starts to back NU against the wall. NU successfully defending the home court would again do the trick.
Third Trimester
Egg: None
LHF: Minnesota, Michigan, at Penn St, at Iowa
Bling: None
Wheaties: at Indiana, Ohio St
NU has a chance to finish strong with four very winnable games and two golden opportunities to make a big impression on the Selection Committee. While the first two trimesters will be more about positioning NU for the NCAAs this last trimester will be make or break. There are a couple of winnable roadies during this stretch run. Win those and NU is looking ok. Better yet defeating OSU at the Welsh in the penultimate regular season game could really sway the Selection Committee.
Overall B1G Course Analysis
The way the schedule makers have set it up a sluggish start to the conference season is to be expected. NU fans should take this account and not be quick to toss out their NCAA dreams if NU finds itself at 2-4 to start out conference play. The middle part of the schedule eases ever so slightly, and it is by the end of this six game stretch NU will hopefully be at no worse than 5-7 so as to provide itself some cushion for the home stretch. And it is during this home stretch that NU has some downhill running and will need to get its kick hard for that NCAAs finish line.
There is a real opportunity here for NU to finish strong which would help with the NCAAs resume. The layout of the B1G schedule is both a blessing and a curse. It is a blessing in that it will give the freshmen guards time to acclimate to B1G play in time for this pivotal stretch run. The blessing could turn into a curse if 1) the freshmen struggles through the first two-thirds of the season are such that NU's back up is put up against the wall or 2) the freshmen themselves hit the proverbial wall by then.
What happens is anyone's guess at the moment. Stay tuned.
In our estimation to be on the bubble NU will need to finish 8-10 in conference assuming a win at Creighton on December 22nd and otherwise 9-9. The bubble would burst if NU lost its first round B1G tourney game against a bottom B1G team. So how does this season shape up as NU once again strives to break through that NCAAs glass ceiling? As we did last year, we find it helpful to chart NU's course by first organizing NU’s conference games into four categories: Egg, Low Hanging Fruit, Bling, and Wheaties games.
Categorizing NU's B1G Schedule
Egg (2)
Egg games are those in which NU is projected to win at least 3/4ths of the time (per kenpom.com):
Penn State, Iowa
Low Hanging Fruit (6)
These are games that NU is projected to win but with less than a 75% probability:
Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan, at Penn St, at Iowa
Bling (5)
These are games that NU has between 25%-50% chance of winning:
at Michigan, Michigan St, at Minnesota, Purdue, at Illinois
Wheaties (5)
These games are those which NU has less than a one in four chance of winning:
at Ohio St, at Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Indiana, Ohio St
Plotting NU's B1G Schedule
Now the 18 game conference season is more of a marathon than a sprint. And as any experienced marathoner knows it is helpful to split a race into definable segments so as to plot progress and determine in real time whether one is ahead of pace, on pace, or behind pace. In deference to NU's academic system we break the B1G marathon into trimesters to benchmark's NU progress. Together with our the organized buckets of games above we are able to use this trimester framework and adjust for differences in schedule difficulty, or hill gradients if you will, along the set schedule/course.
First Trimester
Egg: Penn St
LHF: Illinois
Bling: at Michigan, Michigan St
Wheaties: at Ohio St, at Wisconsin
In recent years the schedule makers have shown an affinity for throwing NU right into the B1G fire. This year is no different. The six game first trimester features just two games in which NU is favored, and NU will be significant underdogs in two of the other four games. With this difficult start to the B1G slate a 2-4 start to conference season would not be ideal but should be taken in stride if it were to come to pass. A 1-5 start would be cause for concern while a 3-3 record (e.g., defending the Welsh) would be cause for optimism.
Second Trimester
Egg: Iowa
LHF: Nebraska
Bling: at Minnesota, Purdue, at Illinois
Wheaties: at Purdue
Once again NU is favored in only 2 of these 6 games although there is only one Wheaties game during this stretch. Assuming a 2-4 first trimester record anything worse than 3-3 record here starts to back NU against the wall. NU successfully defending the home court would again do the trick.
Third Trimester
Egg: None
LHF: Minnesota, Michigan, at Penn St, at Iowa
Bling: None
Wheaties: at Indiana, Ohio St
NU has a chance to finish strong with four very winnable games and two golden opportunities to make a big impression on the Selection Committee. While the first two trimesters will be more about positioning NU for the NCAAs this last trimester will be make or break. There are a couple of winnable roadies during this stretch run. Win those and NU is looking ok. Better yet defeating OSU at the Welsh in the penultimate regular season game could really sway the Selection Committee.
Overall B1G Course Analysis
The way the schedule makers have set it up a sluggish start to the conference season is to be expected. NU fans should take this account and not be quick to toss out their NCAA dreams if NU finds itself at 2-4 to start out conference play. The middle part of the schedule eases ever so slightly, and it is by the end of this six game stretch NU will hopefully be at no worse than 5-7 so as to provide itself some cushion for the home stretch. And it is during this home stretch that NU has some downhill running and will need to get its kick hard for that NCAAs finish line.
There is a real opportunity here for NU to finish strong which would help with the NCAAs resume. The layout of the B1G schedule is both a blessing and a curse. It is a blessing in that it will give the freshmen guards time to acclimate to B1G play in time for this pivotal stretch run. The blessing could turn into a curse if 1) the freshmen struggles through the first two-thirds of the season are such that NU's back up is put up against the wall or 2) the freshmen themselves hit the proverbial wall by then.
What happens is anyone's guess at the moment. Stay tuned.
05 December 2011
B1G Power Rankings - Finals Week Edition
With 12 teams now in the B1G this power ranking stuff is going to take 9.1% more effort. We're up to the task.
1. Ohio State (8-0) No brainer. Two big home wins over Florida and Duke. Only question remains how they will play on the road.
2. Wisconsin (6-2) Lost at home to Marquette and at UNC. Marquette loss was a surprise but may have just been one of those nights. Only notable win against BYU on neutral court.
3. Purdue (7-2) Lost to Alabama in a tourney and Xavier on the road. Defeated Iona (no typo - they are good!), Temple and Miami.
4. Michigan State (6-2) Lost to Duke and UNC on neutral courts. Defeated FSU at home.
5. Illinois (8-0) Defeated the 'Zags at home, Richmond on neutral court, and Maryland on the road. Difference has been Maniscalco their PG transfer and emergence of Meyers Leonard.
6. Indiana (8-0) Defeated NC State on the road. Zeller looks good, but the jury is only beginning deliberations on the Hoosiers.
7. Michigan (6-2) Lost at UVA and to Duke on neutral court. Defeated Memphis on neutral court. Will Trey Burke be able to fill Darius Morris's shoes? Hardaway and Morgan will help the cause.
8. Northwestern (7-1) Lost to Baylor at home. Three neutral court wins against NIT-type teams. Game at Creighton will be a good litmus test.
9. Minnesota (8-1) Surviving so far without Mbakwe but for how long? Nice win at home against VT.
10. Nebraska (4-3) Bad loss at home to Wake Forest. Also lost to Oregon at home and at Creighton. Best win was double OT at USC.
11. Iowa (5-3) Bad loss to Campbell at home. Also lost to Clemson at home and to Creighton on neutral court. No meaningful victories.
12. Penn State (6-3) No bad losses (Kentucky, St Joes, Mississippi) but no real meaningful wins. In basement until we see more under new coach without Talor Battle.
1. Ohio State (8-0) No brainer. Two big home wins over Florida and Duke. Only question remains how they will play on the road.
2. Wisconsin (6-2) Lost at home to Marquette and at UNC. Marquette loss was a surprise but may have just been one of those nights. Only notable win against BYU on neutral court.
3. Purdue (7-2) Lost to Alabama in a tourney and Xavier on the road. Defeated Iona (no typo - they are good!), Temple and Miami.
4. Michigan State (6-2) Lost to Duke and UNC on neutral courts. Defeated FSU at home.
5. Illinois (8-0) Defeated the 'Zags at home, Richmond on neutral court, and Maryland on the road. Difference has been Maniscalco their PG transfer and emergence of Meyers Leonard.
6. Indiana (8-0) Defeated NC State on the road. Zeller looks good, but the jury is only beginning deliberations on the Hoosiers.
7. Michigan (6-2) Lost at UVA and to Duke on neutral court. Defeated Memphis on neutral court. Will Trey Burke be able to fill Darius Morris's shoes? Hardaway and Morgan will help the cause.
8. Northwestern (7-1) Lost to Baylor at home. Three neutral court wins against NIT-type teams. Game at Creighton will be a good litmus test.
9. Minnesota (8-1) Surviving so far without Mbakwe but for how long? Nice win at home against VT.
10. Nebraska (4-3) Bad loss at home to Wake Forest. Also lost to Oregon at home and at Creighton. Best win was double OT at USC.
11. Iowa (5-3) Bad loss to Campbell at home. Also lost to Clemson at home and to Creighton on neutral court. No meaningful victories.
12. Penn State (6-3) No bad losses (Kentucky, St Joes, Mississippi) but no real meaningful wins. In basement until we see more under new coach without Talor Battle.
Baylor 69 NU 41 (F)
Overheard in stands: "Am I really jeopardizing by macro grade for THIS?!?!?!" It could be worse. We could be subjected to this kind of offense game-in and game-out if NU's previous head coach, Kevin O'Neill were still the coach. Davide Curletti should give thanks on a daily basis that ain't the case (just ask Aaron "f#$k you" Molnar) although Luka Mirkovic is missing out on a golden opportunity to expand his repertoire of American expletives.
Suffice it to say that NU wilted like a flower in this game. The conventional wisdom is that Baylor was simply too much for NU. We kinda disagree. Baylor probably has the most NBA-level talent of any NU opponent this year not located in Columbus. To be sure it was an uphill battle with their strengths matched up against our weaknesses. However to get blown out like that was a direct reflection of NU's lack of senior leadership. Does anyone really think that Juice Thompson wouldn't have rallied the troops better than John Shurna did? C'mon.
And that is what was most disappointing about the blowout loss. Bad shooting happens, but there is no reason it must snowball into the drubbing that occurred on Sunday. Fact is that NU was getting good looks with its offense. Just stick with it and keep plugging away until momentum shifts. We were the HOME team for goodness sakes. A couple of bombs and the Welsh was ready to rock and roll.
Instead NU went into a shell on offense. Open looks from distance were passed up in favor of drives to the lane which were promptly swatted into the third row. Passes to the unguarded charity stripe were never capitalized upon as our centers didn't realize they were allowed to turn around and shoot the damn ball.
On defense NU was simply overmatched down low. We needed more ball pressure given Baylor's propensity to turn it over. We saw that on occasion early in the second half, but inexplicably NU didn't keep it up. WTF?!?!?
NU is down from #34 in kenpom to #52. Ugh. NU is now projected to go 8-10 in the B1G and 18-12 overall. Not good.
On the lighter side check out this thread on Texas A&M's message board. Several of our buddies concur. We got a good chuckle out of the Aggies throwing in the towel at the end and posting a pic of Sig from Deadliest Catch. It's a good thing Loyola is only a short CTA trip away, and it's not a good thing that NU is going to get thrashed by the Aggies in the Meineke Bowl.
NU is back in action against Texas Southern after finals week on December 15. If a tree falls in the woods and no one hears it...
Suffice it to say that NU wilted like a flower in this game. The conventional wisdom is that Baylor was simply too much for NU. We kinda disagree. Baylor probably has the most NBA-level talent of any NU opponent this year not located in Columbus. To be sure it was an uphill battle with their strengths matched up against our weaknesses. However to get blown out like that was a direct reflection of NU's lack of senior leadership. Does anyone really think that Juice Thompson wouldn't have rallied the troops better than John Shurna did? C'mon.
And that is what was most disappointing about the blowout loss. Bad shooting happens, but there is no reason it must snowball into the drubbing that occurred on Sunday. Fact is that NU was getting good looks with its offense. Just stick with it and keep plugging away until momentum shifts. We were the HOME team for goodness sakes. A couple of bombs and the Welsh was ready to rock and roll.
Instead NU went into a shell on offense. Open looks from distance were passed up in favor of drives to the lane which were promptly swatted into the third row. Passes to the unguarded charity stripe were never capitalized upon as our centers didn't realize they were allowed to turn around and shoot the damn ball.
On defense NU was simply overmatched down low. We needed more ball pressure given Baylor's propensity to turn it over. We saw that on occasion early in the second half, but inexplicably NU didn't keep it up. WTF?!?!?
NU is down from #34 in kenpom to #52. Ugh. NU is now projected to go 8-10 in the B1G and 18-12 overall. Not good.
On the lighter side check out this thread on Texas A&M's message board. Several of our buddies concur. We got a good chuckle out of the Aggies throwing in the towel at the end and posting a pic of Sig from Deadliest Catch. It's a good thing Loyola is only a short CTA trip away, and it's not a good thing that NU is going to get thrashed by the Aggies in the Meineke Bowl.
NU is back in action against Texas Southern after finals week on December 15. If a tree falls in the woods and no one hears it...
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