30 December 2013

GAMBLE Report 1.09

NU (7-6) played its final two non conference games since we published GR 1.08.  

NU 58 Brown 52
Depaul 57 NU 56

kenpom predicted NU would win both games.  A split of these games is not good and does not bode well for the looming B1G slate.

Both games were expected to be tight affairs but not quite the defensive battles (to put a kind spin on it) that materialized.  The end result is a lower kenpom overall rating (down 9 spots to 125 and now just 7 above the 2013 season), a much improved AdjD (up 38 spots to an impressive 46 which is better than CBC's best defensive team -- 56 in 2005), but a woeful 252 AdjO (101 rungs below even the hamstrung 2013 team and much worse than CBC's worst offensive team -- 196 in 2005).

Next up is the B1G opener at home against Wisconsin.  NU is predicted to lose 63-56 with just an 18% chance of winning.  Far be it from us to question the wisdom of kenpom"dom" but we give NU a snowball's chance in hell of staying within double digits much less an 18% chance of winning this game.

kenpom even predicts NU will win 5 games in the B1G although only three games are actually predicted to be wins (three home squeakers against Purdue, Penn State, and Nebraska).  If that happens we may have to rename this blog "Collins Court".  More likely however is an NU squad that fails to win double digit games on the season and sadly finishes ranked below the personnel-beleaguered 2013 squad.