15 November 2013

GAMBLE Report - Edition 1.01

What can NU fans expect from the changing of the coaching guard? What will be the effect on NU’s offense? Defense? NCAAs prospects?

Well. No one really knows because Coach Chris Collins has ZERO track record as a head coach. The best anyone can do is to extrapolate from Duke where CCC spent time as a player and assistant coach. That extrapolation is flimsy at best given the myriad differences between a Coach K-led Duke squad and a CCC-led NU squad.

We’ll leave it to others to flail around and try as best they can to use Duke as a model for NU’s future. We will let the facts speak for themselves. So without further ado let us introduce the first installment in our series: Grading our Alma Mater’s Basketball Ludicrous Experiment Report (a/k/a the “GAMBLE Report”).

As we are wont to do we will rely primarily upon the unbiased kenpom data for our GAMBLE Reports. Our baseline comparison will be the gently rising Great Plains-like plateau where Coach Carmody had grown the program over the 2009-2012 NIT years.

It's early but so what?  We are curious and so are you.  On offense things don't look so good.  The biggest problem has been not taking care of the ball which may be a symptom of an offense that asks players to create by driving and dishing as opposed to the regimented Princeton Offense that moves the ball around through systematic passing to get an open shot.  This difference also bears out in the FTR which is improved comparatively.  CCC's offense is doing a relatively poor job of generating easy shots. Behind that drop in eFG% is a drop in 2P% which in our minds mean fewer layups.

The defense is now better thanks to improved rebounding and on ball defense.  The man defense primarily employed by CCC does have its downside in that it is creating fewer turnovers and forcing NU defenders to foul more often.