NCAAs Round 2 Analysis

We're down to the Sweet 16, and it looks like this year is shaping up much like last year with the "power conferences" dominating. The two remaining dance crashers are Gonzaga and Xavier, two 4 seeds that have been ranked most of the year and were seeded to make it this far. Ho hum.

Why have the last couple of years gone more or less according to plan? Why hasn't a George Mason come out of the woodwork to captivate the college basketball nation? I am of the opinion that this is just part of the randomness of college basketball and athletics more generally (some sports are more random than others, but that is neither here nor there). What we have seen the past couple of years are simply a couple of observations in which things went according to plan. I don't think there is any trend here, and the chances of next year going "mad" is just as likely as it was this year, last year, or in all the years since the rules for the entry into the NBA changed (one of the key exogenous variables that I think does affect NCAA teams differently -- there are others but this is the biggest recent shock to the system -- the economy may be another if things continue to go down the crapper).

I will say that I find the results disappointing since it is more fun to root for the underdog. You have to suspect that "small school" fans are chagrined by this year's results, particularly since Arizona, their poster child for the undeserving bid that was stolen from a smaller school, is still standing. With results like the past couple of years, these fans can probably expect more bias towards the major conference schools for the at-large bids (which is good news for Northwestern, I guess).

Below is a continuation of the Round 1 Analysis I posted a couple of days ago...

Actual Predicted Difference
Round 2 (based on Round 1 results and seeds)
BgE 5-1 5-1 +0
B12 3-3 3-3 +0
ACC 2-1 2-1 +0
B10 2-2 1-3 +1
P10 1-4 1-4 +0
SEC 0-1 0-1 +0

Conclusion? Round 2 went largely to plan. I suppose that the Big 10 outperformed, but that is a bit of a stretch as the +1 is due to 5 Purdue beating 4 Washington, not exactly a stunner.

Another way to look at the tourney results so far is that 14 of the top 16 seeds made it to the Sweet 16. The two crashers are Purdue and 12 Arizona (4 Wake Forest flamed out in the first round to Cleveland St). I guess this suggests that the Big Ten has done slightly better than expected while the ACC has done worse (see my Round 1 analysis, plus WF's absence from long weekend #2 of the tourney). The Big XII and Pac 10 have done slightly better than expected primarily because of their Round 1 results. Again -- Ho hum.

I have to say that I was uber-impressed with Memphis. They look like an NBA team again with their length on the perimeter and girth down on the blocks. Weren't they decimated by NBA defections after last year's loss in the national championship game (which reminds me --Calipari is such a bonehead for allowing Kansas to hoist a three to send the game into OT)? It is impressive that they could reload so quickly. Thad Matta is good at stocking his roster with elite athletes, but it seems Calipari has outdone even him.

Thank you seniors

You have helped turn this ship around at long last. Unlike previous visits to the NIT, the next season has as much if not more promise than how the current one ended.

Craig Moore was a great senior leader, both by example and vocally. He will be missed. Here's to winning the 3-point contest at the Final Four, Craig.

Sterling Williams was selfless and paved the way to local recruiting success, the key to NU's future. I was very happy for Sterling when he played a key role in a stirring victory @ Purdue this year.

Lastly, much appreciation to Patrick Houlihan and Marlon Day who did much of their worked behind the scenes and helped made our starters and bench stronger through their dedication and hard work.

THANK YOU! I hope you take great pride in what is to come for this program. You truly were the pioneers and played a key role in leading NU out of its 70+ years in the wilderness

Vanquished foes streaking towards the NCAAs

Purdue will battle Ohio State on Selection Sunday for the Big Ten Tournament title. The game will mean not much more to the college basketball world other than some bragging rights and possibly a small bump in the NCAA tourney seedings to the winner. But, to Northwestern fans, this matchup is yet another piece of evidence of how large a step forward the program took this year and how close NU is to the Promised Land of the NCAA Tournament. As NU fans will recall, NU beat both Purdue (@ W Lafayette) and OSU @ the Welsh within the last few weeks.

Also of note was Florida State's victory over #1 UNC today. Yes, this is the same FSU team that NU buried during a memorable second half sparked by a series of inspired play from Ivan Peljusic.

Unconventional Lineup Comes Up Short Against Minnesota

Coach Carmody went to an unconventional lineup of Williams, Nash, Mirkovic, Thompson, and Shurna last week in a move to rest his big guns for the stretch run at #19 Purdue in West Lafayette. Surprisingly, this lineup not only managed to hold onto a slim NU lead but actually built upon the lead thanks in no small part to offensive contributions from Williams.

Against Minnesota in today's Big Ten Tournament game, with 4 fouls for Coble and Thompson late in the second half, Carmody opted for a similarly unconventional lineup of Nash, Williams, Moore, Ryan and Peljusic during a pivotal late second half stretch. Carmody gambled to ensure Thompson and Coble would be available for the closing minutes, but perhaps Carmody also wanted to get a little breather for his stars as Thompson had exerted a lot of energy to get NU back into the game, and Coble was hounded by multiple Minnesota defenders after a stellar first half.

This move proved less successful than the Purdue game lineup as Minnesota opened up a 3 point lead while Thompson and Coble sat. There is some overblown criticism to Carmody's decision because of this 3 point gap, but this was not the reason NU lost. No, NU lost because it could not make a bucket even once the stars came back into the game. Had NU won this game (like the Purdue game), there wouldn't be much attention paid to this at all. It just goes to show that winning is a great salve.

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda

Did ya know that NU was just two victories shy of finishing in a tie for 2nd in the Big Ten this year? Yes, I realize that NU was 3 games behind Illinois and Purdue in the final regular season standings, and, no, I do not need my head examined. Had NU hung onto late 2nd half double-digit leads and pulled out the home games against the Illini and the Boilermakers, that would've bumped NU up to 10-8 for the season and knocked both Illinois and Purdue down to 10-8. Hence, NU was two victories away from a tie for 2nd place finish in the conference.

That just goes to show how close NU was to breaking through to the first tier of the Big Ten this year and how closely grouped the 2nd through 9th place teams were. There's some food for thought for those NU fans who are gnashing their teeth over yet another finish in close proximity to the Big Ten cellar.