09 January 2015

2015 B1G Projections - Jan 9 2015 Edition

We plan to update these B1G projections every few games or so as our schedules allow.  All but two teams have three B1G games under their belts by now (Northwestern and Indiana have two), and all B1G teams are off tonight.  This is as good a time as any for our first mid-conference-play update to our 2015 B1G projections.

First up is an update to the projected standings.  We've highlighted and bolded the most likely outcome prior to conference play so that you can track how teams have improved or regressed relative to pre-B1G expectations.  For example Iowa fans have reason to feel better about their team than 10 days ago since the Hawkeyes are now most likely to finish in 5th (including ties) relative to prior expectations of a 7th place finish.  Conversely Minnesota fans are likely to feel down about their winless Gophers as their most likely finish has dropped from 4th to 8th.

Close observers will note that this standings update no longer has summary win statistics at the bottom.  That is because we have added the following two tables that provide more detail on the win forecasts.  Voila...

The win probabilities that comprise the bulk of this new table are self-explanatory.  In the bottom part of the table first we show the weighted average (W-L) record derived from the detailed win probabilities above (i.e., the current "Forecast").  These current forecasts are then ranked. Next for comparative purposes we have copied and pasted the "Pre-B1G" play expected (W-L) records.  The final row of data shows the current records which could be subtracted from the current projections to determine how many more wins and losses are in store for teams over their remaining regular season schedules.

Last but not least is a table that shows the cumulative win probabilities for various win totals.  It is simply derived from the win probabilities summarized in the above table.