29 November 2012

On future B1G expansion

With UMD and Rutgers now in the B1G fold we wonder what is next?  All indications are that the B1G wants to get to 16 before TV contract negotiations for 2017-????.  Who are the next two?

If SEC moves to add VT and NCSU then it's quite possible the ACC crumbles and UNC moves to "B16" together with UVA.  Then the B12 would then pick up many of the remains including, in declining order of probability, FSU, Clemson, GT, Pitt, Miami, Syracuse.  We can't imagine Wake Forest, Duke, Boston Coll finding a home given how each of these three conferences focus on football.

If SEC stands pat then we could see UVA and GT winding up in B16, SEC adding UNC and VT, then B12 adding the above but for switching out GT for NCSU.

Game theory suggests that the SEC would be well served to hold its water and wait for B1G to make the next move, but there may be pressure on SEC to move next from the VT and NCSU admins who don't want to risk the SEC going after FSU and being forced to join the B12.

A big wild card under either scenario above is Notre Dame.  Most likely they stayindependent in the short-to-medium term and start playing in B12 for non-football.  If and when Texas decides it's ready to switch to the B1G -- which is in all likelihood will be a much richer and prestigous proposition than even the Longhorn network in 5-10 years --  it will finally be time for ND to join B1G.  B1G would likely move to 20 for football scheduling (5x4 pods) and add FSU and one team to be named later --either Syracuse, Miami, GT depending on how those schools develop/if GT is already in/how well Rutgers anchors NYC market.