18 December 2014

2015 Forecasts: Post CMU Edition

NU had a rough game last night.  Although NU was a 7 point favorite the CMUers left the Welsh with an 80-67 victory.  The loss put a dent in NU's kenpom ranking with NU sagging 25 rungs from 131 down to 156.

This downgrade is reflected in diminished expectations for NU's 2015 season.
NU is now expected to go 12-19 overall for the regular season which is down from 13.5-16.5.  The prospects of a winning season are now just 3.1%.

Within B1G play the "good news" is that NU is still forecasted to win 4 games.  However if NU continues to sag in the kenpom rankings then you can expect a downgrade to just 3 wins.

The most depressing part of this update is the overall B1G picture.

Worse: With a 500,000 trial simulation NU never finished any higher than third.  Even lowly Rutgers had a few observations where it finished 2nd.

Worser: There is a 95% probability that NU finishes no higher than 11th in the Big Ten.

Worst: NU now is the most likely team to finish 14th.  NU is also the most likely team to finish in either 13th (tied or alone) or 14th.