Back in December we previewed and analyzed NU's 2012 B1G schedule to give our readers a road map to the NCAAs if you will. We did so by dividing the schedule into trimesters and then categorizing the games therein. With the first two trimesters now in the books this is a good time to step back and take stock of where NU stands on its NCAAs quest.
The first trimester grades have been in the books for a few weeks now, but we channeled our inner Ben Bernanke and withheld our board notes so as to not unduly influence the course of events. Per Carmody Court Bylaw 2.03A(i)4.a.ii. (aka, the "CC No Tampering Rule") we are now free to share our findings. So without further ado drum roll please...
First trimester (wins in parens)
Expected result: 2-4 (PSU, Illinois)
Targeted result: 2-4 (PSU, Illinois)
Actual result: 2-4 (PSU, MSU)
Analysis: NU lost one Low Hanging Fruit game (Illinois) but replaced it with one Bling game. In the eyes of the Selection Committee the Bling win outweighs the LHF loss. Also of note is that NU nearly picked up additional Bling at Michigan but fell in OT.
Grade: C+
We'll be back in a few more weeks to share our second trimester analysis. Oh what the hell. We hereby enact Bylaw 4.12D(iii)2.a. which allows us to forego the CC NO Tampering Rule and (subpart i.) not take any responsibility whatsoever for any undue negative influence our words may or may not have on the season and (ii) simultaneously take full credit for NU's run to the NCAAs.
Second trimester
Expected result: 2-4 (Io_a, Nebraska)
Targeted result: 3-3 (Io_a, Nebraska, Purdue)
Actual result: 3-3 (Io_a, Nebraska, at Illinois)
Analysis: NU exceeded expectations and met our 3-3 target. In place of a home victory against Purdue was a glorious victory at Illinois. In the eyes of the Selection Committee the road victory will impress more than the home loss to Purdue will hurt.
Grade: B
Looking ahead
At 5-7 NU has achieved our minimum target for scraping into the NCAAs this year. The third trimester is upon us so let's do this thang! What once appeared to be 4 low hanging fruit games has morphed into 2 LHFs and 2 Bling games (at Io_a, Michigan have become tougher), and the two Wheaties games (at Indiana, Ohio State) still look like very tall orders. It won't easy but so what? As an NU fan would you really expect it to be any other way?!?!? Buckle up because this roller coaster of a season is about to get nerve wracking.
14 February 2012
13 February 2012
PURDUE 87 Northwestern 77 (F)
Northwestern's (15-9,5-7) NCAAs aspirations were dealt a blow last night in a hard fought 87-77 loss to Purdue (16-9,6-6). With the loss NU fell into a seventh place tie with Illinois, Minnesota and Iowa. Purdue is now alone in sixth place and has an edge up on NU with the NCAA Selection Committee with the season series sweep.
Neither offense could get untracked in a rugged first half as a tough nosed Purdue defense knocked NU off its spots while switching NU defenses kept Purdue off balance. Purdue managed to squeeze out a 34-29 lead as the teams headed to the locker rooms -- the largest margin for either team in the half. The Wildcats played well out of halftime and managed to nose out to a 48-47 by the ten minute mark. It was at that point that the game changed complexion.
The light went on for the Purdue offense, and it was full steam ahead for Boilermakers over the next 8 minutes. During this stretch Purdue scored on 12/13 possessions that included 9-11 shoooting from the field and 4-4 from the charity stripe. Northwestern's offense also excelled, but 18 points were not enough to keep pace with Purdue's incredible 27 points and other worldly 201.7 offensive efficiency. Over the final couple of minutes NU went into foul mode to extend the game, but Purdue converted enough of the freebies to keep the Wildcats at bay.
There were two Purdue possessions during this pivotal stretch that were true spirit breakers. The first possession came at the 7 minute mark when Purdue got the ball after a Shurna jumper had tied the score at 57. The NU defense stayed solid and ultimately forced Purdue's Terone Johnson to hoist a bailout three as the shotclock expired. Naturally the 29% shooter from distance swished it. The second possession was around the 3 minute mark when NU's defense forced Ryne Smith to miss a difficult jumper. Perhaps having grown accustomed to seeing Purdue shots go through the net NU neglected to box out a crashing DJ Byrd, and Byrd made NU pay with an uncontested layup on the rebound.
Individually Johnny Shurna had a standout game. Shurna was at his best in the second half when he scored 23 points and was instrumental in keeping NU in the game despite Purdue's uberefficient offense. For the game John had 30 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks and no turnovers. Dave Sobolewski also had himself a nice game tallying 12 points on 2-3 shooting from distance and 3 assists to zero turnovers. This frosh guard continues to impress.
Drew Crawford had an up and down game. Drew had several good plays including an invigorating dunk that had NUfaithful fans thinking late in the second half that if only NU could get a defensive stop or two then a resume building road win might be in the offing. Two missed layups and a second technical foul that ejected him from the game ultimately torpedoed NU's comeback effort. Alex Marcotullio frustrated us with another poor game. Marcotullio did knock down his only shot of the night which was a pretty looking bomb, but one shot in 30 minutes of play is not nearly enough production. Worse yet was his three costly turnovers and a silly fifth foul 75 feet from the basket with 2:30 to play and NU trailing by 6 points.
Next up is a trip to Bloomington on Wednesday to take on a rejuvenated Indiana (19-6,7-6) squad. This is a scary matchup for Northwestern. The Hoosiers have lost only once this year at Assembly Hall (Minnesota) and have taken down Kentucky and Ohio State in the friendly confines. Indiana has the #1 ranked B1G offense in conference that relies upon superb outside shooting (also #1 in conference) coupled with a post game solidified by the addition of superfrosh Cody Zeller.
The Hoosiers must be licking their chops as they watch film of the league's worst defense. NU's short bench has forced Carmody's hand to play more 1-3-1 than he might otherwise prefer. The vulernabilities of the 1-3-1 are open spaces in the corners which just so happen to be the preferred Hoosier shooting location. Unless the 1-3-1 can force copious amounts of turnovers this game could get ugly right quick.
Neither offense could get untracked in a rugged first half as a tough nosed Purdue defense knocked NU off its spots while switching NU defenses kept Purdue off balance. Purdue managed to squeeze out a 34-29 lead as the teams headed to the locker rooms -- the largest margin for either team in the half. The Wildcats played well out of halftime and managed to nose out to a 48-47 by the ten minute mark. It was at that point that the game changed complexion.
The light went on for the Purdue offense, and it was full steam ahead for Boilermakers over the next 8 minutes. During this stretch Purdue scored on 12/13 possessions that included 9-11 shoooting from the field and 4-4 from the charity stripe. Northwestern's offense also excelled, but 18 points were not enough to keep pace with Purdue's incredible 27 points and other worldly 201.7 offensive efficiency. Over the final couple of minutes NU went into foul mode to extend the game, but Purdue converted enough of the freebies to keep the Wildcats at bay.
There were two Purdue possessions during this pivotal stretch that were true spirit breakers. The first possession came at the 7 minute mark when Purdue got the ball after a Shurna jumper had tied the score at 57. The NU defense stayed solid and ultimately forced Purdue's Terone Johnson to hoist a bailout three as the shotclock expired. Naturally the 29% shooter from distance swished it. The second possession was around the 3 minute mark when NU's defense forced Ryne Smith to miss a difficult jumper. Perhaps having grown accustomed to seeing Purdue shots go through the net NU neglected to box out a crashing DJ Byrd, and Byrd made NU pay with an uncontested layup on the rebound.
Individually Johnny Shurna had a standout game. Shurna was at his best in the second half when he scored 23 points and was instrumental in keeping NU in the game despite Purdue's uberefficient offense. For the game John had 30 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks and no turnovers. Dave Sobolewski also had himself a nice game tallying 12 points on 2-3 shooting from distance and 3 assists to zero turnovers. This frosh guard continues to impress.
Drew Crawford had an up and down game. Drew had several good plays including an invigorating dunk that had NU
Next up is a trip to Bloomington on Wednesday to take on a rejuvenated Indiana (19-6,7-6) squad. This is a scary matchup for Northwestern. The Hoosiers have lost only once this year at Assembly Hall (Minnesota) and have taken down Kentucky and Ohio State in the friendly confines. Indiana has the #1 ranked B1G offense in conference that relies upon superb outside shooting (also #1 in conference) coupled with a post game solidified by the addition of superfrosh Cody Zeller.
The Hoosiers must be licking their chops as they watch film of the league's worst defense. NU's short bench has forced Carmody's hand to play more 1-3-1 than he might otherwise prefer. The vulernabilities of the 1-3-1 are open spaces in the corners which just so happen to be the preferred Hoosier shooting location. Unless the 1-3-1 can force copious amounts of turnovers this game could get ugly right quick.
10 February 2012
NORTHWESTERN 83 Io_a 64 (F)
For the third game in a row Northwestern (15-8,5-6) relied upon a robust offense to bury a B1G opponent and to improve the outlook for its NCAAs dreams. The victim last night was Io_a (13-12,5-7) who had no answer for Northwestern's small lineup offense and looked equally as perplexed by the Wildcat defense.
The first half comprised a series of runs. After a slow start to the game NU went on a 16-2 spurt to take a 19-9 lead just 8 minutes into the game. Iowa fought back over the following 5 1/2 minutes by outscoring NU 14-5 and cutting the NU lead to just one point on a Matt Gatens 3 pointer, but NU closed out the half on a 14-6 run to take a 38-29 halftime lead.
The second half was played evenly over the first 9 minutes as NU extended its lead by a modest four points to 57-44. NU then landed a heavy blow with a 8-0 run over the next couple of minutes that included two Reggie Hearn trifectas and a Dave Sobolewski coast-to-coast layup. Io_a managed to cut the lead back down to 15 points, but Alex Marcotullio broke out of a shooting slump and delivered the knock out blow by draining three quick bombs and extending the Northwestern lead to 24 with just 5 minutes to play.
The key to the game was Northwestern's offensive balance. All five NU starters finished in double digits, and as a team the Wildcats shot 56% from the floor including 52% from distance. NU scored an eye popping 1.41 points per possession. This translates into an offense that performed about 0.26 points per possession better than an average B1G would've as host to Io_a. This performance was slightly off from the MSU game (0.33 PPP) and was a smidge worse than the game at Illinois (0.26 PPP), and it marks the third straight game that NU outperformed an average B1G offense by at least 0.2 PPP.
There is a fair amount of excitement over the defensive performance against Io_a. To the eye, Io_a looked completely lost against NU's 1-3-1 defense and turned the ball over a terrible 18 times in the game. But looks can be deceiving. Even with those turnovers Io_a managed an offensive efficiency of 108.5 for the game which is above their in-conference average. By our estimation NU's defense still underperformed an average B1G defense hosting the Ha_keyes by 0.07 points per possession. That's an improvement over NU's defensive typical performance this year, but it is still nothing to crow about.
Overall this was NU's second best game in conference from an adjusted efficiency standpoint. More importantly this marks the fourth straight game in which NU's efficiency has improved from its B1G low point at Minnesota. So not only is NU on a three game win streak but NU is improving game by game. This trend bodes well for the future.
Next up NU travels to Purdue (15-9,5-6) on Sunday for a 5pm tip. The Boilermakers are riding a two game losing streak after losing to Indiana at home and making Ohio State sweat in Columbus. NU and Purdue are tied for sixth in conference so both teams will be focused and ready for this game. Purdue has the home court advantage and perhaps some additional motivation to reverse a losing streak. Northwestern has the revenge factor and a great deal of confidence riding a three game win streak. Purdue will be favored in the game, but Northwestern has a puncher's chance to win. A Northwestern win is not necessary for NU's NCAAs aspirations, but it would provide some margin for error down the stretch run. Now wouldn't that be a welcomed change of pace from the past few years!
The first half comprised a series of runs. After a slow start to the game NU went on a 16-2 spurt to take a 19-9 lead just 8 minutes into the game. Iowa fought back over the following 5 1/2 minutes by outscoring NU 14-5 and cutting the NU lead to just one point on a Matt Gatens 3 pointer, but NU closed out the half on a 14-6 run to take a 38-29 halftime lead.
The second half was played evenly over the first 9 minutes as NU extended its lead by a modest four points to 57-44. NU then landed a heavy blow with a 8-0 run over the next couple of minutes that included two Reggie Hearn trifectas and a Dave Sobolewski coast-to-coast layup. Io_a managed to cut the lead back down to 15 points, but Alex Marcotullio broke out of a shooting slump and delivered the knock out blow by draining three quick bombs and extending the Northwestern lead to 24 with just 5 minutes to play.
The key to the game was Northwestern's offensive balance. All five NU starters finished in double digits, and as a team the Wildcats shot 56% from the floor including 52% from distance. NU scored an eye popping 1.41 points per possession. This translates into an offense that performed about 0.26 points per possession better than an average B1G would've as host to Io_a. This performance was slightly off from the MSU game (0.33 PPP) and was a smidge worse than the game at Illinois (0.26 PPP), and it marks the third straight game that NU outperformed an average B1G offense by at least 0.2 PPP.
There is a fair amount of excitement over the defensive performance against Io_a. To the eye, Io_a looked completely lost against NU's 1-3-1 defense and turned the ball over a terrible 18 times in the game. But looks can be deceiving. Even with those turnovers Io_a managed an offensive efficiency of 108.5 for the game which is above their in-conference average. By our estimation NU's defense still underperformed an average B1G defense hosting the Ha_keyes by 0.07 points per possession. That's an improvement over NU's defensive typical performance this year, but it is still nothing to crow about.
Overall this was NU's second best game in conference from an adjusted efficiency standpoint. More importantly this marks the fourth straight game in which NU's efficiency has improved from its B1G low point at Minnesota. So not only is NU on a three game win streak but NU is improving game by game. This trend bodes well for the future.
Next up NU travels to Purdue (15-9,5-6) on Sunday for a 5pm tip. The Boilermakers are riding a two game losing streak after losing to Indiana at home and making Ohio State sweat in Columbus. NU and Purdue are tied for sixth in conference so both teams will be focused and ready for this game. Purdue has the home court advantage and perhaps some additional motivation to reverse a losing streak. Northwestern has the revenge factor and a great deal of confidence riding a three game win streak. Purdue will be favored in the game, but Northwestern has a puncher's chance to win. A Northwestern win is not necessary for NU's NCAAs aspirations, but it would provide some margin for error down the stretch run. Now wouldn't that be a welcomed change of pace from the past few years!
06 February 2012
On Stephen Bardo
One of our favorite parts of a Northwestern upset victory is watch the other team's fan base combust. We aren't surprised that the warped Germans have come up with a word for this specific type enjoyment: schadenfreude. It's a guilty pleasure of ours, but it isn't one the seven sins as far as we know so we can still look ourselves in the mirror.
Anywho there is some great reading over at Illini HQ from the past day or so. The place was already hell bent on firing Bruce Weber, and yesterday's loss just added fuel to the fire. During our gratuitous lurking we noticed a post that nearly made us gag. Bardo is a good announcer? WTF!?!?!?!? We still are haunted by his broadcasts last year in which literally EVERY NORTHWESTERN GAME he used the same old "Juice Thompson is 5'10" only if he's standing on a NY phone book" bit. It wasn't funny the first time Stephen, and it was torture by the end of the season.
Anywho there is some great reading over at Illini HQ from the past day or so. The place was already hell bent on firing Bruce Weber, and yesterday's loss just added fuel to the fire. During our gratuitous lurking we noticed a post that nearly made us gag. Bardo is a good announcer? WTF!?!?!?!? We still are haunted by his broadcasts last year in which literally EVERY NORTHWESTERN GAME he used the same old "Juice Thompson is 5'10" only if he's standing on a NY phone book" bit. It wasn't funny the first time Stephen, and it was torture by the end of the season.
05 February 2012
Northwestern 74 ILLINOIS 70 (F)
Northwestern (14-8, 4-6) traveled down to Illinois (16-7,5-5) for a Super Sunday rematch with avenging a narrow one point loss in Evanston on their mind. Despite some chatter that Luka Mirkovic and JerShon Cobb were set to return from the scratch list, Northwestern once again went with a "small" lineup and just a six man "rotation" throughout. It worked against Nebraska, and it worked again at Illinois.
In the first half it was the Reggie Hearn show. Reggie was perfect from the field and tallied 16 points on 6-6 shooting and 4-4 from distance. As a team Northwestern shot 56% from the field and 46% from distance. Aside from sloppy care for the ball by Crawford and Marcotullio (2 and 3 turnovers, respectively) it really was an impressive offensive display against a very solid Illini defense.
Northwestern employed the 1-3-1 defense to help an undersized Johnny Shurna defend Meyers Leonard in the post. It wasn't a bad strategy, but Leonard still was able to get the ball down low and scored 12 points on 6-6 shooting. The Illini offense was similarly efficient to Northwestern's shooting 59% from the field and 46% from distance. NU's slight rebounding edge and one fewer turnovers helped NU edge out to a 36-33 lead at half.
Out of halftime the Illini cranked up the defensive pressure. Over the first 10 minutes NU managed to score just 7 points while bricking all five of its free throw attempts and were held scoreless for a 7 1/2 minute stretch. However the Illini were unable to fully capitalize on their defensive efforts and led just 46-43 at the 10 minute mark.
It was at that point that Johnny Shurna decided to take over. Shurna scored 4 quick points to bring NU's offense back to life. And for the remainder of the game every big Illini bucket was answered by Johnny either taking his man off the dribble, posting up, or cutting hard for a backdoor layup. By the time he was through Shurna had 12 points on 6-7 of shooting over the final 10 minutes of the game. The Illini, down by 5 points with a minute to play, decided they had seen enough of Shurna's heroics and fouled his teammates to extend the game. But it was futile exercise as Northwestern answered the bell and went 8-10 from the charity stripe to ice the game.
And with that beauticious road victory Northwestern's NCAAs quest is back on track! Next up are the Iowa Hawkeyes (13-11,5-6) who visit The Welsh on Sunday evening for an 8pm tip. The Hawkeyes were left dead to rights after slinking to a 5-5 non-conference start that included an awful home loss to Campbell and blowout losses to Clemson at home and Northern Iowa on the road. Somehow Iowa righted the ship by the time B1G play began and spoiled Wisconsin's New Year's Eve with a stunning 72-65 upset at the Kohl. The Hawkeyes followed that up with another road victory at the barn to sit at a surprising 2-1 in conference play. They have since come back to reality somewhat, but they Hawkeyes are riding a two game winning streak coming into this game and feeling pretty good about themselves. No B1G game is a gimme, but if NU wants to keep breathing life into its NCAAs dreams then they will need to win what is the most winnable game on paper that remains on its schedule.
In the first half it was the Reggie Hearn show. Reggie was perfect from the field and tallied 16 points on 6-6 shooting and 4-4 from distance. As a team Northwestern shot 56% from the field and 46% from distance. Aside from sloppy care for the ball by Crawford and Marcotullio (2 and 3 turnovers, respectively) it really was an impressive offensive display against a very solid Illini defense.
Northwestern employed the 1-3-1 defense to help an undersized Johnny Shurna defend Meyers Leonard in the post. It wasn't a bad strategy, but Leonard still was able to get the ball down low and scored 12 points on 6-6 shooting. The Illini offense was similarly efficient to Northwestern's shooting 59% from the field and 46% from distance. NU's slight rebounding edge and one fewer turnovers helped NU edge out to a 36-33 lead at half.
Out of halftime the Illini cranked up the defensive pressure. Over the first 10 minutes NU managed to score just 7 points while bricking all five of its free throw attempts and were held scoreless for a 7 1/2 minute stretch. However the Illini were unable to fully capitalize on their defensive efforts and led just 46-43 at the 10 minute mark.
It was at that point that Johnny Shurna decided to take over. Shurna scored 4 quick points to bring NU's offense back to life. And for the remainder of the game every big Illini bucket was answered by Johnny either taking his man off the dribble, posting up, or cutting hard for a backdoor layup. By the time he was through Shurna had 12 points on 6-7 of shooting over the final 10 minutes of the game. The Illini, down by 5 points with a minute to play, decided they had seen enough of Shurna's heroics and fouled his teammates to extend the game. But it was futile exercise as Northwestern answered the bell and went 8-10 from the charity stripe to ice the game.
And with that beauticious road victory Northwestern's NCAAs quest is back on track! Next up are the Iowa Hawkeyes (13-11,5-6) who visit The Welsh on Sunday evening for an 8pm tip. The Hawkeyes were left dead to rights after slinking to a 5-5 non-conference start that included an awful home loss to Campbell and blowout losses to Clemson at home and Northern Iowa on the road. Somehow Iowa righted the ship by the time B1G play began and spoiled Wisconsin's New Year's Eve with a stunning 72-65 upset at the Kohl. The Hawkeyes followed that up with another road victory at the barn to sit at a surprising 2-1 in conference play. They have since come back to reality somewhat, but they Hawkeyes are riding a two game winning streak coming into this game and feeling pretty good about themselves. No B1G game is a gimme, but if NU wants to keep breathing life into its NCAAs dreams then they will need to win what is the most winnable game on paper that remains on its schedule.
Northwestern 36 ILLINOIS 33 (H)
A good first half thanks to Reggie Hearn's 16 points. He's been abusing Leonard on offense, but Leonard has returned the favor on the other end to the tune of 12 points.
NU has played 6 guys in the first half. Shurna, Crawford and Sobolewski played all 20 minutes. Hearn had a +6, Marcotullio +2, and Curletti -2.
Let's finish this thing!
NU has played 6 guys in the first half. Shurna, Crawford and Sobolewski played all 20 minutes. Hearn had a +6, Marcotullio +2, and Curletti -2.
Let's finish this thing!
04 February 2012
B1G Power Rankings: Halfway Point Edition
1. Ohio State Still see no reason to expect they will relinquish top dog position (change from preconference ranking: none)
2. Wisconsin Dominating defense, improving offense (no change)
3. Michigan State Day Day is underrated (no change)
4. Michigan Media were right, we were wrong (+2)
5. Indiana They're sliding but expected to right the ship (-1)
6. Illinois Brandon Paul to the rescue (+2)
7. Purdue Hummel still needs another threat to emerge (-2)
8. Minnesota Tubby doing a good job with this team without Mbakwe (+1)
9. Northwestern Home losses to Illinois and Purdue weigh heavily (-2)
10. Iowa How did they win at Wisconsin? (+1)
11. Nebraska Showing signs of life as they return to health and schedule eases (-1)
12. Penn State It's been a tough year in State College for a number of reasons (no change)
2011-12 Northwestern Efficiency at B1G Halfway Point
Northwestern is now at the halfway point of conference play. Its 3-6 record is disappointing and behind where we'd like to see it for NU's NCAAs resume. But the schedule has been front loaded so the record alone doesn't tell the complete story. To shed some light on how NU has performed this year by taking into account the schedule we have updated our popular NU efficiency analysis that we discussed last October when we revisited the 2010-11 season.
Before we get into the data it is important to say up front that a sample size of nine B1G games do not a solid statistical analysis make. To improve the sample size we considered including NU's games against non-conference opponents (excluding cream puffs), but as it turned out the benefits of increased sample size did not outweigh the cost of mixing apples with oranges. The other caveat we wish to mention is that this analysis is midstream and thus there is more noise in the data from imbalanced schedules across the B1G than there is in an analysis that considers the results from an entire conference season. In other words it is a little early for this type of analysis but we were curious and figured to share our very preliminary findings.
The statistics on NU's relative defensive efficiency are more significant than those for offensive efficiency although defensive efficiency stats are still only reliable with up to 80% confidence. When adjusting for differences in game location (home/away/neutral) we found that NU has only performed better than an average defense in the game at Michigan. NU did have a three game stretch (Penn St, Illinois, at Michigan) in which the defense resembled a typical B1G team, but otherwise it has not been pretty.
The two worst games for the defense have been at Wisconsin (0.25 PPP worse than average -- Carmody still hasn't figured out how to defend Bo Ryan's flex offense) and Thursday's game against Nebraska (0.29 PPP worse than average). Since Nebraska was the most recent game NU's defensive trend line is substantially negative. But even if we take out the Nebraska game the stats show that NU's defense is slowly regressing from a pretty poor start at Ohio State (OSU scored 0.14 PPP more against NU than against a typical B1G team). Or to put all of the above more bluntly NU's defense has been below average on the whole and shows no signs that it will improve as the season wears on. Bummers.
On offense the statistics are less significant but at least they tell a more optimistic story. NU's offense has been remarkably consistent within conference so far. In 6 of the 9 games NU has performed within 0.1 PPP of that of a typical B1G offense. Otherwise in 2 games NU's offense really clicked (MSU +0.32 PPP, Nebraska +0.22 PPP) and it really bombed at Minnesota (-0.2 PPP). What we see is that on the whole NU has had a solid B1G offense. What we can expect to see the rest of the way is unclear. Not only are the statistics not very significant but the trend line varies between slightly positive and slightly negative depending on whether the Nebraska game is included in the sample.
When one considers NU's offense and defense together you find that NU has had two real stinker games (at Minnesota and at Wisconsin) and one very good game (Michigan State). Of the nine games, NU has played above an average B1G level in just two games (add in the Michigan game -- which in retrospect helps to explain our editor's rant) and played below average in seven games.
One last point: on average across the nine games NU is 0.07 PPP below an average B1G team. Since the average B1G team is going to be NCAAs bound this says to us that NU has a good amount of work to do but really is not that far off from where they need to be in order to get that elusive NCAAs invite. Very preliminarily. So there.
Before we get into the data it is important to say up front that a sample size of nine B1G games do not a solid statistical analysis make. To improve the sample size we considered including NU's games against non-conference opponents (excluding cream puffs), but as it turned out the benefits of increased sample size did not outweigh the cost of mixing apples with oranges. The other caveat we wish to mention is that this analysis is midstream and thus there is more noise in the data from imbalanced schedules across the B1G than there is in an analysis that considers the results from an entire conference season. In other words it is a little early for this type of analysis but we were curious and figured to share our very preliminary findings.
The statistics on NU's relative defensive efficiency are more significant than those for offensive efficiency although defensive efficiency stats are still only reliable with up to 80% confidence. When adjusting for differences in game location (home/away/neutral) we found that NU has only performed better than an average defense in the game at Michigan. NU did have a three game stretch (Penn St, Illinois, at Michigan) in which the defense resembled a typical B1G team, but otherwise it has not been pretty.
The two worst games for the defense have been at Wisconsin (0.25 PPP worse than average -- Carmody still hasn't figured out how to defend Bo Ryan's flex offense) and Thursday's game against Nebraska (0.29 PPP worse than average). Since Nebraska was the most recent game NU's defensive trend line is substantially negative. But even if we take out the Nebraska game the stats show that NU's defense is slowly regressing from a pretty poor start at Ohio State (OSU scored 0.14 PPP more against NU than against a typical B1G team). Or to put all of the above more bluntly NU's defense has been below average on the whole and shows no signs that it will improve as the season wears on. Bummers.
On offense the statistics are less significant but at least they tell a more optimistic story. NU's offense has been remarkably consistent within conference so far. In 6 of the 9 games NU has performed within 0.1 PPP of that of a typical B1G offense. Otherwise in 2 games NU's offense really clicked (MSU +0.32 PPP, Nebraska +0.22 PPP) and it really bombed at Minnesota (-0.2 PPP). What we see is that on the whole NU has had a solid B1G offense. What we can expect to see the rest of the way is unclear. Not only are the statistics not very significant but the trend line varies between slightly positive and slightly negative depending on whether the Nebraska game is included in the sample.
When one considers NU's offense and defense together you find that NU has had two real stinker games (at Minnesota and at Wisconsin) and one very good game (Michigan State). Of the nine games, NU has played above an average B1G level in just two games (add in the Michigan game -- which in retrospect helps to explain our editor's rant) and played below average in seven games.
One last point: on average across the nine games NU is 0.07 PPP below an average B1G team. Since the average B1G team is going to be NCAAs bound this says to us that NU has a good amount of work to do but really is not that far off from where they need to be in order to get that elusive NCAAs invite. Very preliminarily. So there.
NORTHWESTERN 84 Nebraska 74 (F)
Northwestern (13-8, 3-6) used a 17-3 run over the final 8 minutes of the first half to build a 15 point lead at halftime. This cushion allowed the Wildcats to withstand several Nebraska (11-10, 3-7) second half runs and pull away at the very end of the game for a 10 point victory.
The key to Northwestern's impressive first half was stellar shooting from beyond the arc. As a team NU shot an astonishing 10-21 from distance with each of the starters knocking down at least one trey (Curletti was the sixth man and did not attempt a 3 point shot). The 10 converted bombs put NU on pace to match its B1G record of 20 made threes in a game. It also helped that Northwestern only turned the ball over twice to Nebraska's 8 turnovers.
Nebraska heated up in the second half as they shot a torrid 18-29 from the field including 7-13 from distance. Northwestern was able withstand the Cornhuskers' hot hands by getting to the line an incredible 24 times and making 19 of those freebies.
Northwestern's MASH unit had 7 scholarship players available for the game of which 6 played. John Shurna had a game high 28 points on 9-13 shooting including 3-6 from distance. He also stuffed the stat sheet by making 7-8 from the charity stripe, grabbed 5 boards, blocked 2 shots and had 2 steals.
Drew Crawford also had himself a good night with 21 points on 7-15 shooting including 4-7 from three point land. Drew also helped NU's effort by nabbing 4 steals. Dave Sobolweski chipped in 15 points thanks to 3-7 shooting from distance and making 6-7 FTs. Davide Curletti had only 4 points, but he got those points on perfect shooting from the charity stripe. Davide also had 8 assists, grabbed 4 boards and had 3 steals in 28 minutes.
Northwestern's 84 point effort is the Carmody-era high water mark for offense in a non-OT B1G game. Maybe it isn't pure coincidence that NU set a new record against a new foe, but regardless NU's 1.33 points per possession was quite impressive and matched NU's best efforts of the season (against Seton Hall and Mississippi Valley St). On the flip side NU allowed 1.17 PPP to Nebraska which was their second best effort in their inaugural B1G season (1.3 PPP in their victory at Iowa).
Next up is a Super Sunday trip to Illinois (16-6,5-4) where Northwestern looks to avenge a bitter 57-56 loss on Jan 4 in E-town. A Northwestern win would revitalize the NCAAs chatter while a loss would make the following two games (Iowa, at Purdue) must win games. The Illini have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this year with impressive home victories over Ohio St and Michigan St but have also struggled at times against inferior opponents (Illinois St, St Bonaventure, Cornell, Nebraska, and Penn St). Brandon Paul led the Illini in both of their marquee wins. We're hardly experts on coaching strategy, but we would recommend that NU do its best to keep Mr Paul in check on Sunday.
The key to Northwestern's impressive first half was stellar shooting from beyond the arc. As a team NU shot an astonishing 10-21 from distance with each of the starters knocking down at least one trey (Curletti was the sixth man and did not attempt a 3 point shot). The 10 converted bombs put NU on pace to match its B1G record of 20 made threes in a game. It also helped that Northwestern only turned the ball over twice to Nebraska's 8 turnovers.
Nebraska heated up in the second half as they shot a torrid 18-29 from the field including 7-13 from distance. Northwestern was able withstand the Cornhuskers' hot hands by getting to the line an incredible 24 times and making 19 of those freebies.
Northwestern's MASH unit had 7 scholarship players available for the game of which 6 played. John Shurna had a game high 28 points on 9-13 shooting including 3-6 from distance. He also stuffed the stat sheet by making 7-8 from the charity stripe, grabbed 5 boards, blocked 2 shots and had 2 steals.
Drew Crawford also had himself a good night with 21 points on 7-15 shooting including 4-7 from three point land. Drew also helped NU's effort by nabbing 4 steals. Dave Sobolweski chipped in 15 points thanks to 3-7 shooting from distance and making 6-7 FTs. Davide Curletti had only 4 points, but he got those points on perfect shooting from the charity stripe. Davide also had 8 assists, grabbed 4 boards and had 3 steals in 28 minutes.
Northwestern's 84 point effort is the Carmody-era high water mark for offense in a non-OT B1G game. Maybe it isn't pure coincidence that NU set a new record against a new foe, but regardless NU's 1.33 points per possession was quite impressive and matched NU's best efforts of the season (against Seton Hall and Mississippi Valley St). On the flip side NU allowed 1.17 PPP to Nebraska which was their second best effort in their inaugural B1G season (1.3 PPP in their victory at Iowa).
Next up is a Super Sunday trip to Illinois (16-6,5-4) where Northwestern looks to avenge a bitter 57-56 loss on Jan 4 in E-town. A Northwestern win would revitalize the NCAAs chatter while a loss would make the following two games (Iowa, at Purdue) must win games. The Illini have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this year with impressive home victories over Ohio St and Michigan St but have also struggled at times against inferior opponents (Illinois St, St Bonaventure, Cornell, Nebraska, and Penn St). Brandon Paul led the Illini in both of their marquee wins. We're hardly experts on coaching strategy, but we would recommend that NU do its best to keep Mr Paul in check on Sunday.
29 January 2012
Purdue 58 NORTHWESTERN 56 (F)
Northwestern's (12-8, 2-6) narrow loss to Purdue (15-7, 5-4) jeopardizes NU's NCAAs dreams. To be sure there is still a chance of it happening. It's just an uphill battle now which places a greater importance on NU executing near peak performance for the duration of the season.
We should know by Valentine's Day what be the dealio. It is at that point that NU will be 2/3rds of the way through the B1G season, and it is imperative that NU's conference record be at least 5-7. To get there NU must take care of business at home against Nebraska and Iowa. We like our chances there. To get that third victory NU must avenge a narrow loss when it travels to Illinois or Purdue. According to kenpom.com between those two games NU has a 50/50 chance of winning one of them. Sooner or later NU will get back to winning these coin flip type games right?
When it was not turning the ball over a shorthanded Northwestern squad actually held its own quite well against Purdue yesterday. Purdue scored 21 points off an uncharacteristically high 16 Northwestern turnovers. In a game that came down to a Robbie Hummel runner on the baseline with 8 seconds to play it is fair to say that turnovers cost NU this game.
Northwestern's "Big Two" came to play. Drew Crawford had 23 points on 9-16 shooting including 4-7 from distance. Johnny Shurna poured in 15 points on 6-11 shooting and 2-5 from distance (including the miss on a last ditch heave as the clock expired). The two also collected 8 and 7 rebounds, respectively.
In the turnover department Reggie Hearn, Davide Curletti and Crawford had 5, 4 and 4, respectively. Purdue is one of the better B1G teams in turning their opponents over, but those figures are outrageous especially considering that Curletti and Hearn logged just 26 and 29 minutes respectively.
If the Michigan State game was Curletti's high water mark then this game may have been his low point. His +/- was -15 and his Roland Rating was -28. Zoinks! Here are the gory second half details behind those figures. Northwestern struggled to produce offense in this game until the 16:30 mark when Alex Marcotullio subbed in for Davide Curletti. Sparked by Marcotullio's insertion into the lineup NU went on a 15-2 run over the next 4:30 NU to erase a 9 point deficit and build a 40-36 lead. With Curletti back in the lineup Purdue regained control by outscoring 18-9. With Curletti back on the bench NU then outscored Purdue 7-2 to knot the game at 56. Curletti subbed back into the game for Crawford on Purdue's final possession, and we know what happened there.
We didn't plan this to be a rant against Curletti, and it is a bit unfair to lay this loss on him because this is a team game. But the stats are pretty damning. Luka Mirkovic is a favorite punching bag for NU fans, but we have to wonder if the outcome of this game wouldn't have been different if he had been able to play (he was in a boot with a twisted ankle). We have to believe he would've provide a little more than 1-5 shooting, 0-2 from the charity stripe and 4 turnovers. In the ultimate making lemonade scenario, Luka's slow foot speed also probably would've prevented him from being in position to muck up a Reggie Hearn steal out of the 1-3-1 like Curletti did.
So NU has finished January on a low note. Let's make this a February to, ummmm, Them Drew Bury. Next up NU plays host to Nebraska for the first time on Thursday. Thanks to the loss to Purdue this is a must win game. NU will be a sizable favorite in the game so a loss to the Cornhuskers would be inexcusable especially since NU has been backed into a corner.
We should know by Valentine's Day what be the dealio. It is at that point that NU will be 2/3rds of the way through the B1G season, and it is imperative that NU's conference record be at least 5-7. To get there NU must take care of business at home against Nebraska and Iowa. We like our chances there. To get that third victory NU must avenge a narrow loss when it travels to Illinois or Purdue. According to kenpom.com between those two games NU has a 50/50 chance of winning one of them. Sooner or later NU will get back to winning these coin flip type games right?
When it was not turning the ball over a shorthanded Northwestern squad actually held its own quite well against Purdue yesterday. Purdue scored 21 points off an uncharacteristically high 16 Northwestern turnovers. In a game that came down to a Robbie Hummel runner on the baseline with 8 seconds to play it is fair to say that turnovers cost NU this game.
Northwestern's "Big Two" came to play. Drew Crawford had 23 points on 9-16 shooting including 4-7 from distance. Johnny Shurna poured in 15 points on 6-11 shooting and 2-5 from distance (including the miss on a last ditch heave as the clock expired). The two also collected 8 and 7 rebounds, respectively.
In the turnover department Reggie Hearn, Davide Curletti and Crawford had 5, 4 and 4, respectively. Purdue is one of the better B1G teams in turning their opponents over, but those figures are outrageous especially considering that Curletti and Hearn logged just 26 and 29 minutes respectively.
If the Michigan State game was Curletti's high water mark then this game may have been his low point. His +/- was -15 and his Roland Rating was -28. Zoinks! Here are the gory second half details behind those figures. Northwestern struggled to produce offense in this game until the 16:30 mark when Alex Marcotullio subbed in for Davide Curletti. Sparked by Marcotullio's insertion into the lineup NU went on a 15-2 run over the next 4:30 NU to erase a 9 point deficit and build a 40-36 lead. With Curletti back in the lineup Purdue regained control by outscoring 18-9. With Curletti back on the bench NU then outscored Purdue 7-2 to knot the game at 56. Curletti subbed back into the game for Crawford on Purdue's final possession, and we know what happened there.
We didn't plan this to be a rant against Curletti, and it is a bit unfair to lay this loss on him because this is a team game. But the stats are pretty damning. Luka Mirkovic is a favorite punching bag for NU fans, but we have to wonder if the outcome of this game wouldn't have been different if he had been able to play (he was in a boot with a twisted ankle). We have to believe he would've provide a little more than 1-5 shooting, 0-2 from the charity stripe and 4 turnovers. In the ultimate making lemonade scenario, Luka's slow foot speed also probably would've prevented him from being in position to muck up a Reggie Hearn steal out of the 1-3-1 like Curletti did.
So NU has finished January on a low note. Let's make this a February to, ummmm, Them Drew Bury. Next up NU plays host to Nebraska for the first time on Thursday. Thanks to the loss to Purdue this is a must win game. NU will be a sizable favorite in the game so a loss to the Cornhuskers would be inexcusable especially since NU has been backed into a corner.
27 January 2012
MINNESOTA 75 Northwestern 52 (F)
Northwestern (12-7, 2-5) got housed at The Barn. When the gates
opened NU was not ready to run, digging itself a hole so deep with an
0-fer 15 shooting slump that the game essentially over by halftime.
Aside from Alex Marcotullio, who had one of his best games of the year,
this was a collective team stinker of a game.
The team shot a forgettable 33% from the field, 31% from beyond the arc and 40% from the charity stripe. NU once again got crushed on the boards 35-20, but we can't get too bent out of shape about it since this kind of imbalance is a natural outcome when your team lays up a ton of bricks and the opponent shoots lights out (the Gophers shot 58% from the field). Drew Crawford shot 2-10, had 3 rebounds, no assists and 2 turnovers in 30 minutes of play. Shurna chucked his way to 21 points but took 21 shots to do so. Sobolewski went 0-5, and worse yet had just one assist to three turnovers. Yuck.
This was NU's worst loss of the season with potentially crippling effects on its bid to make the NCAAs. NU hadn't looked this bad in a game since a fangless Central Connecticut squad came to Evanston in mid-December and nearly won a game against a listless NU squad.
There has been some talk that tired legs were the reason for NU's poor results at Minnyhaha. There is probably some truth to that given NU's inexplicably miserable free throw shooting efforts (8-20 as a team including Shurna 2-8 and Crawford 1-4). The fact of the matter is that Johnny S and Drew C have logged way too many minutes this season, and we may be seeing the fallout from this substitution pattern or lack thereof. If we were in Coach Carmody's shoes we'd probably do the same thing since Shurna and Crawford are indispensable and injuries have decimated the team's depth. It is what it is.
We find the tired legs explanation to be overblown. Teams can and do have bad shooting nights regadless of any fatigue effects. We are confident that the Minnesota game was just one of those nights and expect NU to show no hangover effects in tomorrow's game against Purdue (14-7, 4-4). A week off to rest up and get angry about their effort in M-polis doesn't hurt the cause.
Despite a 2-5 record the NCAAs watch is still on. As we wrote before conference play began NU needs to finish 3-3 during this second trimester of the conference season. Home games against Purdue, Nebraska, and Iowa look to be the most likely games to collect those three wins, but the two away games at Illinois or Purdue also provide a good opportunity to make up for lost ground if NU slips up in any of these games at the Welsh.
The team shot a forgettable 33% from the field, 31% from beyond the arc and 40% from the charity stripe. NU once again got crushed on the boards 35-20, but we can't get too bent out of shape about it since this kind of imbalance is a natural outcome when your team lays up a ton of bricks and the opponent shoots lights out (the Gophers shot 58% from the field). Drew Crawford shot 2-10, had 3 rebounds, no assists and 2 turnovers in 30 minutes of play. Shurna chucked his way to 21 points but took 21 shots to do so. Sobolewski went 0-5, and worse yet had just one assist to three turnovers. Yuck.
This was NU's worst loss of the season with potentially crippling effects on its bid to make the NCAAs. NU hadn't looked this bad in a game since a fangless Central Connecticut squad came to Evanston in mid-December and nearly won a game against a listless NU squad.
There has been some talk that tired legs were the reason for NU's poor results at Minnyhaha. There is probably some truth to that given NU's inexplicably miserable free throw shooting efforts (8-20 as a team including Shurna 2-8 and Crawford 1-4). The fact of the matter is that Johnny S and Drew C have logged way too many minutes this season, and we may be seeing the fallout from this substitution pattern or lack thereof. If we were in Coach Carmody's shoes we'd probably do the same thing since Shurna and Crawford are indispensable and injuries have decimated the team's depth. It is what it is.
We find the tired legs explanation to be overblown. Teams can and do have bad shooting nights regadless of any fatigue effects. We are confident that the Minnesota game was just one of those nights and expect NU to show no hangover effects in tomorrow's game against Purdue (14-7, 4-4). A week off to rest up and get angry about their effort in M-polis doesn't hurt the cause.
Despite a 2-5 record the NCAAs watch is still on. As we wrote before conference play began NU needs to finish 3-3 during this second trimester of the conference season. Home games against Purdue, Nebraska, and Iowa look to be the most likely games to collect those three wins, but the two away games at Illinois or Purdue also provide a good opportunity to make up for lost ground if NU slips up in any of these games at the Welsh.
19 January 2012
WISCONSIN 77 Northwestern 57 (F)
It was a one man Mike Bruesewitz show for Wisconsin (15-5, 4-3) in the first half. Ryan Evans and Jason Taylor showed up after halftime and the Badgers coasted to another easy victory over Northwestern (12-6, 2-4) at the Kohl Center.
Despite shooting 54.5% from the floor as a team and 60% from beyond the arc as a team NU still trailed 34-32 at the half. Bruesewitz helped Wisconsin keep pace with Northwestern behind 5-6 shooting including 2-2 from beyond the arc for a total of 12 points. No other Badger had more than 5 points.
Northwestern fans dreamed of an upset at halftime, but it was not meant to be after Jason Taylor heated up from behind the arc and helped Wisconsin go on a 14-0 run to bury NU in a 55-38 hole. With Wisconsin's slow play and stellar defense it was effectively game over from that point on.
Such is life on the road in the B1G especially for NU at Madtown. We said in our pregame snipet that the Badgers were due to come around on offense, and that came true in the second half of yesterday's game. Next up is a roadie to Minneapolis to take on the Gophers (14-5, 2-4). This game presents a real opportunity for not only padding the NCAAs resume with a nice road win but also for position jockeying with another team in the NCAA bubble discussion and sits at 2-4 in the standings. Unlike some fans we will not go so far as to say this is a must win since kenpom.com projects NU to meet its 9-9 target even with a projected loss at Minnesota. Never the less a victory would be important to help NU build some cushion for the stretch run. This game is winnable especially if we can get Marco or Cobb healthy and back into the lineup after not even making the trip up to Madtown.
Despite shooting 54.5% from the floor as a team and 60% from beyond the arc as a team NU still trailed 34-32 at the half. Bruesewitz helped Wisconsin keep pace with Northwestern behind 5-6 shooting including 2-2 from beyond the arc for a total of 12 points. No other Badger had more than 5 points.
Northwestern fans dreamed of an upset at halftime, but it was not meant to be after Jason Taylor heated up from behind the arc and helped Wisconsin go on a 14-0 run to bury NU in a 55-38 hole. With Wisconsin's slow play and stellar defense it was effectively game over from that point on.
Such is life on the road in the B1G especially for NU at Madtown. We said in our pregame snipet that the Badgers were due to come around on offense, and that came true in the second half of yesterday's game. Next up is a roadie to Minneapolis to take on the Gophers (14-5, 2-4). This game presents a real opportunity for not only padding the NCAAs resume with a nice road win but also for position jockeying with another team in the NCAA bubble discussion and sits at 2-4 in the standings. Unlike some fans we will not go so far as to say this is a must win since kenpom.com projects NU to meet its 9-9 target even with a projected loss at Minnesota. Never the less a victory would be important to help NU build some cushion for the stretch run. This game is winnable especially if we can get Marco or Cobb healthy and back into the lineup after not even making the trip up to Madtown.
14 January 2012
NORTHWESTERN 81 Michigan State 74 (F)
We are grateful for this great team victory for a number of reasons. First it puts NU (12-5, 2-3) at 2 wins for the very difficult opening trimester of the B1G slate. With a difficult trip coming up to Madtown that will round out the first trimester a win tonight was important to keep NU on track to sneak into the NCAAs. Second with another three difficult games on deck the win keeps NU from enduring a potentially long losing streak which helps immensely with this team's mental attitude. And last but not least is that it staves off the circling anti-Carmody vultures for the time being which means no immediate need for another rant from our associate editor who wears his heart on his sleeve especially after a night of indulgent imbibation.
Anywho things did not look promising during the first 10 minutes of the game when #6/7 Sparty (15-3, 4-1) rode hot shooting and nice low post feeds to a 25-16 margin. Sparty could've stretched the lead to double digits and really had the Spartan faithful roaring from the rafters, but instead an Alex Marcotullio steal that was converted into a Drew Crawford bomb brought some air back into the building and narrowed the deficit to 6 points. The deficit was then cut to 4 when Davide Curletti stole a rebound from Sparty and converted the offensive board.
NU stuck with MSU the rest of the first half with the game shifting gears after two Alex Marcotullio bombs the first of which knotted the game at 33 to give NU its first tie since 4 all and the second one giving NU a 36-34 lead. Sparty responded with a trey of its own, but a desperation 25' foot Shurna prayer was answered with a few seconds to go, and NU took a 39-37 lead into halftime.
NU opened the second stanza with a backdoor layup from Sobo to Hearn, and it was at that point that it appeared that the second half may very well look like the latter part of the first half. Good news! NU held its lead and even stretched it to double digits around the midway point of the second half. Sparty managed to slice the gap to 5 points with a quick 7-0 run aided by a turnover and hoop when two Spartans converged on Reggie Hearn near midcourt to pick pocket him and get a break away layup.
The tension at that point was palpable since NU fans have been conditioned to expect the worst. Except this time NU responded to the challenge by taking the ball to the hoop, getting fouled, and then converting free throws. With crisis averted NU went on to rebuild its double digit lead with less than 5 minutes to play, and NU played loose and coasted to victory the rest of the way.
Davide Curletti was a surprise starter in the game, and boy did he deliver! As we said prior to the season Davide is good for a handful of good games, and this may have very well been the best performance of his career. Davided had three very important offensive rebounds that he converted into points, and on the evening he netted 17 points on 5-7 shooting including 1-1 from beyond the arc. Better yet is that Davide departed from his propensity to hack opponents as he ended with 4 fouls over 36 minutes of run and didn't pick up his last foul until the game was effectively over. Davide also had 4 assists, 2 steal, and a block to round out his sparkling afternoon.
NU's "big two" also showed up with Crawford banking 20 points on 8-14 shooting including 3-5 from downtown. Despite only shooting 5-14 from the floor Shurna had a game high 22 points thanks to 10-11 shooting from the charity stripe. Johnny also had 5 assists, no turnovers, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in 40 minutes of play.
Reggie Hearn had an extremely efficient 29 minutes scoring 10 points on 5-6 shooting and also grabbed two important offensive rebounds. Dave Sobolewski didn't have a good day shooting the rock (1-6, 0-3) but he filled his role as floor general quite well and wound up with 7 assists to just 1 turnover. It makes us smile to think we can look forward to seeing Sobo in purple (or should we say black?) for another 3+ years.
The biggest reason for NU's victory was that NU held its own on the boards against the mean green rebounding machine (NU had 19 boards to MSU's 24). Another key was that NU had just 7 turnovers to Sparty's 14. Had NU turned the ball over more Sparty very well could've won this game as Appling did a very good job of pushing the ball up the court and converting easy hoops before NU could set its defense. Lastly NU did a good job of getting to the charity stripe and had 29 attempts in the game. This aggressiveness has been an emerging trend so far in conference and is a nice departure from past Carmody teams.
Next up is a roadie to Madison to take on the Badgers on Wednesday Jan 18 at 8PM Central. Bucky has had some surprising difficulty early in the B1G slate and is sitting at just 2-3 despite winning its last game 67-62 at Purdue. The knock on Bucky is that their offense is just bad enough to give them fits despite a very good defense. We don't really buy that and expect Wisconsin to right the ship just as they did in the 2008-09 season when they started out 3-6 in conference but finished the regular season on a 7-2 tear. The Kohl Center has been a house of horrors for NU, and we expect more of the same this year. Kenpom.com gives NU just a 7% shot at victory which sounds about right to us. Still Iowa was able to come out of Madison with a 72-65 victory so you just never know.
Anywho things did not look promising during the first 10 minutes of the game when #6/7 Sparty (15-3, 4-1) rode hot shooting and nice low post feeds to a 25-16 margin. Sparty could've stretched the lead to double digits and really had the Spartan faithful roaring from the rafters, but instead an Alex Marcotullio steal that was converted into a Drew Crawford bomb brought some air back into the building and narrowed the deficit to 6 points. The deficit was then cut to 4 when Davide Curletti stole a rebound from Sparty and converted the offensive board.
NU stuck with MSU the rest of the first half with the game shifting gears after two Alex Marcotullio bombs the first of which knotted the game at 33 to give NU its first tie since 4 all and the second one giving NU a 36-34 lead. Sparty responded with a trey of its own, but a desperation 25' foot Shurna prayer was answered with a few seconds to go, and NU took a 39-37 lead into halftime.
NU opened the second stanza with a backdoor layup from Sobo to Hearn, and it was at that point that it appeared that the second half may very well look like the latter part of the first half. Good news! NU held its lead and even stretched it to double digits around the midway point of the second half. Sparty managed to slice the gap to 5 points with a quick 7-0 run aided by a turnover and hoop when two Spartans converged on Reggie Hearn near midcourt to pick pocket him and get a break away layup.
The tension at that point was palpable since NU fans have been conditioned to expect the worst. Except this time NU responded to the challenge by taking the ball to the hoop, getting fouled, and then converting free throws. With crisis averted NU went on to rebuild its double digit lead with less than 5 minutes to play, and NU played loose and coasted to victory the rest of the way.
Davide Curletti was a surprise starter in the game, and boy did he deliver! As we said prior to the season Davide is good for a handful of good games, and this may have very well been the best performance of his career. Davided had three very important offensive rebounds that he converted into points, and on the evening he netted 17 points on 5-7 shooting including 1-1 from beyond the arc. Better yet is that Davide departed from his propensity to hack opponents as he ended with 4 fouls over 36 minutes of run and didn't pick up his last foul until the game was effectively over. Davide also had 4 assists, 2 steal, and a block to round out his sparkling afternoon.
NU's "big two" also showed up with Crawford banking 20 points on 8-14 shooting including 3-5 from downtown. Despite only shooting 5-14 from the floor Shurna had a game high 22 points thanks to 10-11 shooting from the charity stripe. Johnny also had 5 assists, no turnovers, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in 40 minutes of play.
Reggie Hearn had an extremely efficient 29 minutes scoring 10 points on 5-6 shooting and also grabbed two important offensive rebounds. Dave Sobolewski didn't have a good day shooting the rock (1-6, 0-3) but he filled his role as floor general quite well and wound up with 7 assists to just 1 turnover. It makes us smile to think we can look forward to seeing Sobo in purple (or should we say black?) for another 3+ years.
The biggest reason for NU's victory was that NU held its own on the boards against the mean green rebounding machine (NU had 19 boards to MSU's 24). Another key was that NU had just 7 turnovers to Sparty's 14. Had NU turned the ball over more Sparty very well could've won this game as Appling did a very good job of pushing the ball up the court and converting easy hoops before NU could set its defense. Lastly NU did a good job of getting to the charity stripe and had 29 attempts in the game. This aggressiveness has been an emerging trend so far in conference and is a nice departure from past Carmody teams.
Next up is a roadie to Madison to take on the Badgers on Wednesday Jan 18 at 8PM Central. Bucky has had some surprising difficulty early in the B1G slate and is sitting at just 2-3 despite winning its last game 67-62 at Purdue. The knock on Bucky is that their offense is just bad enough to give them fits despite a very good defense. We don't really buy that and expect Wisconsin to right the ship just as they did in the 2008-09 season when they started out 3-6 in conference but finished the regular season on a 7-2 tear. The Kohl Center has been a house of horrors for NU, and we expect more of the same this year. Kenpom.com gives NU just a 7% shot at victory which sounds about right to us. Still Iowa was able to come out of Madison with a 72-65 victory so you just never know.
12 January 2012
Op Ed: Grow some SACK Wildcat fans!
Apologies in advance to our even handed blog meister and the yin to my yang, but I really don't give a damn about decorum right now. Censor me if you want, but I've had enough of all these spineless "NU fans" who are wetting their pants and crying home to their mommies about last night's loss. Why should they be the only ones allowed to vent their frustrations and whine like little babies to their hearts content?
No. Listen up, fools. I don't know what the hell you were expecting to happen in Ann Arbor, but let me remind you that NU was a 9 point underdog. So now that we were just a bobbled rebound out of bounds, an awful Sobo turnover under our hoop that turned into 2 points, a Reggie Hearn taking his eye of the ball and losing it out of bounds, a botched Marco breakaway layup, or an awful charging call on Shurna that erased a bucket away from winning on the road against the #13 team in the nation, it is now clear that this team has no chance of the NCAAs, that Carmody should be fired, that this team doesn't know how to win, that you're not going to watch/attend anymore games, blah ef'ing blah????
Do you morons even realize that Michigan is UNDEFEATED in Ann Arbor? How about the fact that Wisconsin just got obliterated there? And, oh yeah, they're ranked #13 (it's worth reiterating). Or, that NU's power rankings have actually IMPROVED after last night's loss?
Look it. I get that you are sick and tired of waiting for the NCAAs. I am, too. I get that people are especially frustrated because this season is supposed to be the last good chance of making it happen with Shurna graduating. I even get the fans will be fans, and this sky is falling crap is all too common.
What pisses me off is that this outcry is even greater than normal when it came after an arguably decent performance by NU. It also pisses me off that we are just 4 games into an 18+ game big ten season, and you're writing this team off already. Yah. I get it that you're all so smart and know that just because NU has lost to 5 ranked teams that NU doesn't belong and has no chance at the NCAAs. It is all so EF'ING CLEAR now isn't it?
Let's see what some of the most common complaints are. One of my personal favorites is that NU doesn't know how to win. Are you all DERANGED? Or, is it AMNESIA? NU was one of the luckiest team in the nation before these last two losses. For the totally clueless, that means that NU had pulled out more close games than nearly every other team in the nation. Did you even watch the tournament in Charleston? NU won three straight close games down there. But who am I to say that facts should get in the way of a good rant?
Another fav is the conclusion that Carmody was an idiot for not sticking with the small lineup. Yah, Carmody is such an idiot that he couldn't see for himself that the small lineup was working, and just decided to ditch it for no particularly good reason. WTF is going through your heads? Has it ever even occurred to you that Carmody had NO CHOICE but to go back to the big lineup because Marco's toe wouldn't allow him to play and because Cobb was forced to sit the entire game with injury? No, that would be just to damn logical for this kangaroo court. Or, if accepted, I'm sure these nit wits will just use it as an indictment against Carmody's recruiting (and once again conveniently ignore all of the other, bigger reasons for why NU can't exactly take its pick of the litter).
Carmody was an idiot for blowing all his timeouts in the second half, right? I bet the whiners complaining about this are the very same people who complained in the past the Carmody doesn't use timeouts to stop runs. Sorry, Carmody, it's once again damned if you and damned if you don't!
I won't even get into the fact that everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, has concluded that NU needs to play better defense to have a shot at the NCAAs. Oh wait I just did. Ef it. What have we seen over the last two losses? Why, it's BETTER EF'ING DEFENSE!!! Yet there is hardly any mention of this positive as it really doesn't fit with the fire Carmody agenda.
I also like the people who say the Seton Hall win was not that good because they weren't playing that well back in November. Seriously? Yeah, I can play that game and make all kinds of dumb ef'ing statements to say that NU is a lock for the NCAAs. Sure, NU has lost to Illinois and Michigan, but the Illini and Wolverines played GREAT. Michigan just blew out Wisconsin, and Illinois just beat Ohio State! Not to mention the fact that NU played poorly in both games and still managed to nearly win. If and when NU puts it all together in the very near future, you better watch the ef out big ten teams!!
OK. I feel better now. I see that Roger took the high road to catharsis by recounting the close losses over the years. Pusses take the high road. Just kidding, Rog. I love your blog and style. I'll fade back into the wood work for now.
No. Listen up, fools. I don't know what the hell you were expecting to happen in Ann Arbor, but let me remind you that NU was a 9 point underdog. So now that we were just a bobbled rebound out of bounds, an awful Sobo turnover under our hoop that turned into 2 points, a Reggie Hearn taking his eye of the ball and losing it out of bounds, a botched Marco breakaway layup, or an awful charging call on Shurna that erased a bucket away from winning on the road against the #13 team in the nation, it is now clear that this team has no chance of the NCAAs, that Carmody should be fired, that this team doesn't know how to win, that you're not going to watch/attend anymore games, blah ef'ing blah????
Do you morons even realize that Michigan is UNDEFEATED in Ann Arbor? How about the fact that Wisconsin just got obliterated there? And, oh yeah, they're ranked #13 (it's worth reiterating). Or, that NU's power rankings have actually IMPROVED after last night's loss?
Look it. I get that you are sick and tired of waiting for the NCAAs. I am, too. I get that people are especially frustrated because this season is supposed to be the last good chance of making it happen with Shurna graduating. I even get the fans will be fans, and this sky is falling crap is all too common.
What pisses me off is that this outcry is even greater than normal when it came after an arguably decent performance by NU. It also pisses me off that we are just 4 games into an 18+ game big ten season, and you're writing this team off already. Yah. I get it that you're all so smart and know that just because NU has lost to 5 ranked teams that NU doesn't belong and has no chance at the NCAAs. It is all so EF'ING CLEAR now isn't it?
Let's see what some of the most common complaints are. One of my personal favorites is that NU doesn't know how to win. Are you all DERANGED? Or, is it AMNESIA? NU was one of the luckiest team in the nation before these last two losses. For the totally clueless, that means that NU had pulled out more close games than nearly every other team in the nation. Did you even watch the tournament in Charleston? NU won three straight close games down there. But who am I to say that facts should get in the way of a good rant?
Another fav is the conclusion that Carmody was an idiot for not sticking with the small lineup. Yah, Carmody is such an idiot that he couldn't see for himself that the small lineup was working, and just decided to ditch it for no particularly good reason. WTF is going through your heads? Has it ever even occurred to you that Carmody had NO CHOICE but to go back to the big lineup because Marco's toe wouldn't allow him to play and because Cobb was forced to sit the entire game with injury? No, that would be just to damn logical for this kangaroo court. Or, if accepted, I'm sure these nit wits will just use it as an indictment against Carmody's recruiting (and once again conveniently ignore all of the other, bigger reasons for why NU can't exactly take its pick of the litter).
Carmody was an idiot for blowing all his timeouts in the second half, right? I bet the whiners complaining about this are the very same people who complained in the past the Carmody doesn't use timeouts to stop runs. Sorry, Carmody, it's once again damned if you and damned if you don't!
I won't even get into the fact that everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, has concluded that NU needs to play better defense to have a shot at the NCAAs. Oh wait I just did. Ef it. What have we seen over the last two losses? Why, it's BETTER EF'ING DEFENSE!!! Yet there is hardly any mention of this positive as it really doesn't fit with the fire Carmody agenda.
I also like the people who say the Seton Hall win was not that good because they weren't playing that well back in November. Seriously? Yeah, I can play that game and make all kinds of dumb ef'ing statements to say that NU is a lock for the NCAAs. Sure, NU has lost to Illinois and Michigan, but the Illini and Wolverines played GREAT. Michigan just blew out Wisconsin, and Illinois just beat Ohio State! Not to mention the fact that NU played poorly in both games and still managed to nearly win. If and when NU puts it all together in the very near future, you better watch the ef out big ten teams!!
OK. I feel better now. I see that Roger took the high road to catharsis by recounting the close losses over the years. Pusses take the high road. Just kidding, Rog. I love your blog and style. I'll fade back into the wood work for now.
MICHIGAN 66 Northwestern 64 (F-OT)
Northwestern (11-5, 1-3) managed to one-up the torture factor from last week's game squeaker of a loss to the Illini. This go around NU shot out to a 7 point halftime lead, but Michigan went on a 12-0 run in the second half to even the scales and force the game into overtime. Northwestern had a chance to send the game into a second OT with a three point deficit and Alex Marcotullio shooting three free throws with 0.3 seconds left. Marcotullio clanged the first attempt, and that was that.
This game was a golden opportunity to atone for the loss to Illinois, but NU simply didn't get it done. Northwestern is back in action at the Welsh at 2PM Saturday when it takes on a Michigan State (15-2, 0-4) team that sits alone atop a stacked B1G. With the first trimester ending in Madison next Wed Jan 18 this game against Spartica is a near "must win" if NU hopes to get back on track to a 2-4 record and leave some wiggle room for the NCAAs. The dream ain't dead yet, but it is in critical condition.
This game was a golden opportunity to atone for the loss to Illinois, but NU simply didn't get it done. Northwestern is back in action at the Welsh at 2PM Saturday when it takes on a Michigan State (15-2, 0-4) team that sits alone atop a stacked B1G. With the first trimester ending in Madison next Wed Jan 18 this game against Spartica is a near "must win" if NU hopes to get back on track to a 2-4 record and leave some wiggle room for the NCAAs. The dream ain't dead yet, but it is in critical condition.
09 January 2012
Illinois 57 NORTHWESTERN 56 (F)
It was not a surprise that Northwestern (12-4, 1-2) lost to Illinois (14-3, 3-1). That NU lost in a closely contested DEFENSIVE struggle was.
The Welsh was packed, and the game looked promising for the Wildcats in the first half as NU extended to a 10 point lead with about 2 minutes to play. The Illini scored two buckets to close out the half with some momentum despite trailing 36-31. No big deal right? Wrong. NU came out and scored the first bucket of the second half, but the Illini went on a 11-0 run over the next few minutes to take a 4 point lead. Over the next 5 minutes Illinois "outscored" NU 2-1 to extend to a 44-39 lead with 11 minutes to play.
The two teams exchange body blows with occasional baskets until the Illini built a 55-47 lead with less than 2 minutes to play. NU made a furious comeback to knot the game at 56, but the Illini got to the line to make 1-2 free throws after a no-call on what could've been a game changing Drew Crawford attempt to draw a charge. Drew Crawford corralled the missed free throw attempt with 6 seconds left, dribbled the ball deep the length of the court and into the lane where his attempt to shoot over 7'1" Myers Leonard was swatted away as the clock expired.
This loss hurts. To keep on track for the NCAAs NU must now steal one of the next three games (@Michigan, Michigan State, @Wisconsin), and NU will be a considerable underdog in each of these games. It is always tough to win on the road so Michigan State may be NU's best shot at a win. However next up is a trip to Ann Arbor on Wednesday where Drew Crawford did have a special game at Crisler two years ago so we got that going for us. For their part Michigan (13-3, 3-1) is riding a wave of momentum after crushing Wisconsin 59-41 at Crisler.
The Welsh was packed, and the game looked promising for the Wildcats in the first half as NU extended to a 10 point lead with about 2 minutes to play. The Illini scored two buckets to close out the half with some momentum despite trailing 36-31. No big deal right? Wrong. NU came out and scored the first bucket of the second half, but the Illini went on a 11-0 run over the next few minutes to take a 4 point lead. Over the next 5 minutes Illinois "outscored" NU 2-1 to extend to a 44-39 lead with 11 minutes to play.
The two teams exchange body blows with occasional baskets until the Illini built a 55-47 lead with less than 2 minutes to play. NU made a furious comeback to knot the game at 56, but the Illini got to the line to make 1-2 free throws after a no-call on what could've been a game changing Drew Crawford attempt to draw a charge. Drew Crawford corralled the missed free throw attempt with 6 seconds left, dribbled the ball deep the length of the court and into the lane where his attempt to shoot over 7'1" Myers Leonard was swatted away as the clock expired.
This loss hurts. To keep on track for the NCAAs NU must now steal one of the next three games (@Michigan, Michigan State, @Wisconsin), and NU will be a considerable underdog in each of these games. It is always tough to win on the road so Michigan State may be NU's best shot at a win. However next up is a trip to Ann Arbor on Wednesday where Drew Crawford did have a special game at Crisler two years ago so we got that going for us. For their part Michigan (13-3, 3-1) is riding a wave of momentum after crushing Wisconsin 59-41 at Crisler.
02 January 2012
NORTHWESTERN 68 Penn St 56 (F)
A surprisingly well attended Welsh Ryan Arena could not coax NU's offense to wake up during a forgettable first half against a graduation-depleted, Ed Dechellis-less Penn State squad. Coach Carmody tore the team a collective new one during halftime, and NU responded with a well-oiled offensive output in the second half. A twelve point home win against the Nittany Lions is hardly something to get overly excited about, but the second half in which NU outscored Penn St 45-30 is a sign of what this team is capable of doing when they come to play.
The hope now is that NU can build upon confidence from this victory and grab another home victory when Illinois invades the Welsh on Wednesday evening. The game is projected to be tight which should make for a good atmosphere as the Illini fans descend upon Evanston in large numbers. It is important that NU gets off the blocks fast in this game. A Northwestern victory would help carry the team through the next dozen games which is the real meat grinder portion of the B1G schedule.
Aside from DJ Richardson the Illini are not a very good outside shooting team. Illinois is much improved down low this year with a rapidly developing Myers Leonard manning the center spot. On paper this game screams for liberal deployment of zone defenses to help our centers defend the paint and encourage the Illini to become a perimeter-oriented team. Just make sure not to wander too far from Richardson!
The hope now is that NU can build upon confidence from this victory and grab another home victory when Illinois invades the Welsh on Wednesday evening. The game is projected to be tight which should make for a good atmosphere as the Illini fans descend upon Evanston in large numbers. It is important that NU gets off the blocks fast in this game. A Northwestern victory would help carry the team through the next dozen games which is the real meat grinder portion of the B1G schedule.
Aside from DJ Richardson the Illini are not a very good outside shooting team. Illinois is much improved down low this year with a rapidly developing Myers Leonard manning the center spot. On paper this game screams for liberal deployment of zone defenses to help our centers defend the paint and encourage the Illini to become a perimeter-oriented team. Just make sure not to wander too far from Richardson!
29 December 2011
OHIO STATE 87 NU 54 (F)
The bad news is that NU started off B1G play with a thud when they were obliterated by Ohio State in Columbus. The good news is that it was the last game was 2011, and NU can turn a new page in 2012 as it hosts woeful Penn State on New Year's day.
It is very difficult to find a silver lining from yesterday's game. Maybe we could point to Dave Sobolewski holding his own against the #2 team in the land by being aggressive and attacking the rim (10 points including 5-7 on FTs). That's a stretch and really is about it. Things got very ugly for NU starting about 8 minutes into the game. The final 2:30 of the game probably summarizes this game the best. During this stretch NU's first string was outscored by the end of OSU's bench 6-0. Woof!
Even though the Welsh is likely to be dead on Jan 1 this is just about as good a time as any for Penn State to visit the Welsh. NU needs a shot of confidence, and the clawless Nittany Lions are just what the doctor ordered. Since on paper this is the easiest W remaining on the schedule we are willing to allow that there is some urgency for a win on Sunday. However with 17 games remaining plus the conference tourney this ain't a "must win" game even though we are certain others will attempt to paint it as such. There is plenty of time remaining for NU to right the ship, and only something short of a 2-4 start to conference play would make us start to reach for the panic button.
It's time to take care of business. Show your mettle Johnny Shurna et al.!
It is very difficult to find a silver lining from yesterday's game. Maybe we could point to Dave Sobolewski holding his own against the #2 team in the land by being aggressive and attacking the rim (10 points including 5-7 on FTs). That's a stretch and really is about it. Things got very ugly for NU starting about 8 minutes into the game. The final 2:30 of the game probably summarizes this game the best. During this stretch NU's first string was outscored by the end of OSU's bench 6-0. Woof!
Even though the Welsh is likely to be dead on Jan 1 this is just about as good a time as any for Penn State to visit the Welsh. NU needs a shot of confidence, and the clawless Nittany Lions are just what the doctor ordered. Since on paper this is the easiest W remaining on the schedule we are willing to allow that there is some urgency for a win on Sunday. However with 17 games remaining plus the conference tourney this ain't a "must win" game even though we are certain others will attempt to paint it as such. There is plenty of time remaining for NU to right the ship, and only something short of a 2-4 start to conference play would make us start to reach for the panic button.
It's time to take care of business. Show your mettle Johnny Shurna et al.!
27 December 2011
B1G Power Rankings: Conference Eve Edition
1. Ohio State Don't be surprised if they hold this spot throughout.
2. Wisconsin Dominating defense.
3. Michigan State Legacy rights.
4. Indiana Drinking the candy stripe koolade. For now.
5. Purdue Hummel needs another threat to emerge.
6. Michigan Still meh on the Wolvies. Too much national media influence?
7. Northwestern Chicago's B1G Team!
8. Illinois Weber's seat is warming up.
9. Minnesota Impressed by post-Mbakwe showing. Can they do it in B1G play?
10. Nebraska Big drop off from #9.
11. Iowa At least they play fast.
12. Penn State NU better sweep these guys.
2. Wisconsin Dominating defense.
3. Michigan State Legacy rights.
4. Indiana Drinking the candy stripe koolade. For now.
5. Purdue Hummel needs another threat to emerge.
6. Michigan Still meh on the Wolvies. Too much national media influence?
7. Northwestern Chicago's B1G Team!
8. Illinois Weber's seat is warming up.
9. Minnesota Impressed by post-Mbakwe showing. Can they do it in B1G play?
10. Nebraska Big drop off from #9.
11. Iowa At least they play fast.
12. Penn State NU better sweep these guys.
23 December 2011
CREIGHTON 87 NU 79 (F)
The game went about as expected in the world as seen through kenpom's eyes. Due to highly efficient performances from both offenses the score was a bit higher than expected, but the post-game rankings for both teams and #21/23 Creighton's 72% win probability if the two teams laced 'em up again tonight in Omaha remain largely unchanged from pre-game expectations.
So if the game in fact went largely according to plan then why do NU fans suddenly feel so sure that NU doesn't have what it takes to make the NCAAs? Were there irrational expectations prior to last night's game? Maybe, but we think it's mostly typical post-game "the sky is falling" reaction to a loss from fans. In our view we have a hard time watching this game and concluding that the NCAAs dream is once again dead. To the contrary once time passes and the dust settles we are confident that we will be able to look back at this game as evidence that NU is very much in the mix for the NCAAs.
Here's why. Despite some questionable foul calls that we shrug off as typical home court bias and despite Creighton gaining nine points on NU over 5+ minutes while an unconscious Drew Crawford (34 points, 13-17, 3-4) was forced to sit with four fouls, the game hung in the balance with 8 minutes and the score knotted at 58. In a game played on the road against a ranked opponent in a very hostile environment that is a sign of a team that belongs.
Creighton managed to put the game on ice with a 20-10 run over the next five minutes. This run was partly a result of their figuring out the 1-3-1 but also from some fortunate Creighton bounces. The run started with a misguided three point shot that drew iron and bounced high off the glass to ultimately fall through the hoop. This was the second such lucky bounce for the BJs on a three pointer. Creighton then extended the lead to seven points when another BJ rattled home a three and got a freebie when the ref fell for the good old shooter flop and whistled Cobb for being in the proximity.
The ultimate dagger occurred around the 4 minute mark when NU failed to corral a rebound as Sobo and Mirk fought each other for the ball and knocked it out of bounds (can somebody please yell SAME!!!!????). NU had a chance to make amends by grabbing the ensuing rebound, but once again fate would have the ball bounce long and directly to a BJ). On the third opportunity Creighton got the ball down low to McDermott who laid the ball in for a 78-68 lead.
There is no denying that the BJs played well last night. But so did NU. If it were not for some questionable refereeing and some unfortunate bounces NU was positioned to sneak out of O-town with a top 25 roadie scalp. It was not meant to be, but NU will live on to fight for the NCAAs in conference. Conventional wisdom says 9-9 is the bar, and this team has it in them.
Next up is NU's first conference game at Columbus to take on #2/2 Ohio State. This game will undoubtedly be a huge challenge, but as with all challenges there comes opportunity. NU showed last year that it could hang with the Buckeyes in E-town and down in Indianapolis. We are penciling in a L but would not be surprised if NU hangs around to make the end of this game interesting.
So if the game in fact went largely according to plan then why do NU fans suddenly feel so sure that NU doesn't have what it takes to make the NCAAs? Were there irrational expectations prior to last night's game? Maybe, but we think it's mostly typical post-game "the sky is falling" reaction to a loss from fans. In our view we have a hard time watching this game and concluding that the NCAAs dream is once again dead. To the contrary once time passes and the dust settles we are confident that we will be able to look back at this game as evidence that NU is very much in the mix for the NCAAs.
Here's why. Despite some questionable foul calls that we shrug off as typical home court bias and despite Creighton gaining nine points on NU over 5+ minutes while an unconscious Drew Crawford (34 points, 13-17, 3-4) was forced to sit with four fouls, the game hung in the balance with 8 minutes and the score knotted at 58. In a game played on the road against a ranked opponent in a very hostile environment that is a sign of a team that belongs.
Creighton managed to put the game on ice with a 20-10 run over the next five minutes. This run was partly a result of their figuring out the 1-3-1 but also from some fortunate Creighton bounces. The run started with a misguided three point shot that drew iron and bounced high off the glass to ultimately fall through the hoop. This was the second such lucky bounce for the BJs on a three pointer. Creighton then extended the lead to seven points when another BJ rattled home a three and got a freebie when the ref fell for the good old shooter flop and whistled Cobb for being in the proximity.
The ultimate dagger occurred around the 4 minute mark when NU failed to corral a rebound as Sobo and Mirk fought each other for the ball and knocked it out of bounds (can somebody please yell SAME!!!!????). NU had a chance to make amends by grabbing the ensuing rebound, but once again fate would have the ball bounce long and directly to a BJ). On the third opportunity Creighton got the ball down low to McDermott who laid the ball in for a 78-68 lead.
There is no denying that the BJs played well last night. But so did NU. If it were not for some questionable refereeing and some unfortunate bounces NU was positioned to sneak out of O-town with a top 25 roadie scalp. It was not meant to be, but NU will live on to fight for the NCAAs in conference. Conventional wisdom says 9-9 is the bar, and this team has it in them.
Next up is NU's first conference game at Columbus to take on #2/2 Ohio State. This game will undoubtedly be a huge challenge, but as with all challenges there comes opportunity. NU showed last year that it could hang with the Buckeyes in E-town and down in Indianapolis. We are penciling in a L but would not be surprised if NU hangs around to make the end of this game interesting.
22 December 2011
On tonight's game at Creighton
We have been surprised to read how jacked the BJs are for this game. Coach McDermott has implored the good people of Omaha to rock the 17K seat house tonight. Not impressed? Wait there's more! The BJs have sent two free tickets to season ticket holders to help pack thy house. Not coincidentally the students are on break but let's be real. Creighton ain't exactly a national destination so chances are that student section will be packed with the sizable local student population who "went home" for the holidays.
BJ fans are also talking up the game. There is a long thread over at bluejayunderground that ponders when was the last time Creighton has hosted such a big game. Holy smokes! Not to belittle our beloved Wildcats but life must be quaint in good ol' O-town.
Did ya know that Coach McDermott only recruited his blossoming star of a son, Doug, only after he left Iowa State for the "hilltop"? If this were nationally broadcast there is little doubt we would've been force fed this info. As it is the national media have missed the ball on this exciting game and only a local affiliate is picking this game up. ESPN has added the game to their Full Court menu which makes us yawn even more than an ESPNU feed.
If there is a MO on McDermott coached teams it is that they play close to the vest. Fundamental man defense. Protect and share the ball on offense. Protect the defensive glass. McDermott is blessed with probably the best offensive team of his D1 career but is cursed with maybe his worst defensive outfit. Sound familiar?
NU is a 7 point dog tonight. That jives with kenpom's forecast which gives NU just a 28% chance at victory. Coach Carmody has defeated Coach McDermott twice in the past two years (at the Chicago tournament two years ago when he was at Iowa State and last year when the BJs were blown out of E-town). This is a game that NU very well could win. If it were in Evanston then we'd feel more confident.
BJ fans are also talking up the game. There is a long thread over at bluejayunderground that ponders when was the last time Creighton has hosted such a big game. Holy smokes! Not to belittle our beloved Wildcats but life must be quaint in good ol' O-town.
Did ya know that Coach McDermott only recruited his blossoming star of a son, Doug, only after he left Iowa State for the "hilltop"? If this were nationally broadcast there is little doubt we would've been force fed this info. As it is the national media have missed the ball on this exciting game and only a local affiliate is picking this game up. ESPN has added the game to their Full Court menu which makes us yawn even more than an ESPNU feed.
If there is a MO on McDermott coached teams it is that they play close to the vest. Fundamental man defense. Protect and share the ball on offense. Protect the defensive glass. McDermott is blessed with probably the best offensive team of his D1 career but is cursed with maybe his worst defensive outfit. Sound familiar?
NU is a 7 point dog tonight. That jives with kenpom's forecast which gives NU just a 28% chance at victory. Coach Carmody has defeated Coach McDermott twice in the past two years (at the Chicago tournament two years ago when he was at Iowa State and last year when the BJs were blown out of E-town). This is a game that NU very well could win. If it were in Evanston then we'd feel more confident.
20 December 2011
On NU's lucky 2011-12 season to date
Among primary ranking sites after 11 games in NU (10-1) is a bit of an enigma. Sagarin has NU at 33 and kenpom at 58. That doesn’t sound so far out of whack until you consider that Sagarin’s ranking is a weighted average of the ELO Chess (7) and Predictor (67) rankings. This large gap in Sagarin tends to happen when teams win several games by narrow margins. It can also be seen in kenpom’s luck statistic. So far in 2012 NU is the 8th
luckiest team.
Is it a good thing or a bad thing that NU has been lucky? And more to the point does it say anything about NU’s chances for making the NCAAs? We reviewed the past three years of kenpom data and found that of the 25 luckiest teams 8, 8, and 6 made the NCAAs in 2009-2011 respectively. That means nearly 30% of the 25 luckiest teams made the NCAAs whereas the rest of the teams had less than a 20% chance. Furthermore there were 7 BCS teams among the Top 25 across those years and of those only one did not make the NCAAs (#18 PSU in 2009 – which incidentally went on to win the NIT).
So the good news is that if NU can continue its lucky streak then the NCAAs look like a near fait accompli. The bad news is that there is no reason to expect NU will continue its lucky streak and hold the inexorable regression to the mean at bay.
Is it a good thing or a bad thing that NU has been lucky? And more to the point does it say anything about NU’s chances for making the NCAAs? We reviewed the past three years of kenpom data and found that of the 25 luckiest teams 8, 8, and 6 made the NCAAs in 2009-2011 respectively. That means nearly 30% of the 25 luckiest teams made the NCAAs whereas the rest of the teams had less than a 20% chance. Furthermore there were 7 BCS teams among the Top 25 across those years and of those only one did not make the NCAAs (#18 PSU in 2009 – which incidentally went on to win the NIT).
So the good news is that if NU can continue its lucky streak then the NCAAs look like a near fait accompli. The bad news is that there is no reason to expect NU will continue its lucky streak and hold the inexorable regression to the mean at bay.
19 December 2011
NU 87 E Ill 75 (F)
What a difference a day makes. Johnny Shurna couldn't do much in Saturday's game against CenConn. A day later he was unstoppable against Eastern Illinois. Shurna had 32 points (11-14, 9-12), 5 assists, and 2 blocked shots against the E Illers. In contrast Reggie Hearn, who tallied 17 crucial points in the narrow victory over CenConn,. was held scoreless last night. It's statistics like these which make it a fool's errand to try to get too fined tuned in one's game and player predictions.
The other player of note was favorite NU fanatic whipping boy Luka Mirkovic. In 29 minutes of play Luka netted 18 points (7-12, 0-1), grabbed 10 boards, and was 3 assists shy of a triple double. Not bad.
Next up is the much anticipated trip to Omaha to tangle with the Creighton Blue Jays who are hovering around the bottom of the national Top 25 rankings. Creighton plays at Tulsa tonight in what is sure to be a closely dissected game by NU fanatics in a futile attempt to forecast Thursday's game. We're hoping Creighton blows out Tulsa. It's much better that way than have the BJ's coming off a loss and feeling like they need to come out and prove something against NU.
The other player of note was favorite NU fanatic whipping boy Luka Mirkovic. In 29 minutes of play Luka netted 18 points (7-12, 0-1), grabbed 10 boards, and was 3 assists shy of a triple double. Not bad.
Next up is the much anticipated trip to Omaha to tangle with the Creighton Blue Jays who are hovering around the bottom of the national Top 25 rankings. Creighton plays at Tulsa tonight in what is sure to be a closely dissected game by NU fanatics in a futile attempt to forecast Thursday's game. We're hoping Creighton blows out Tulsa. It's much better that way than have the BJ's coming off a loss and feeling like they need to come out and prove something against NU.
17 December 2011
NU 70 CCSU 64 (F)
We've got to hand it to CenConn. They (principally frosh stud Kyle Vinales but also seniors Horton and Ptacek) came in ready to play, and they darn near won the game if it were not for poised play from Reggie Hearn and Drew Crawford down the stretch. JerShon Cobb is still getting back in the flow. His shooting eye is true (3-5, 9 points in 16 minutes), but he made a couple of sloppy passes (he wasn't alone). The center position played well as one would hope against an undersized opponent. And Dave Sobolewski made his best Juice Thompson ironman impression going 40 minutes.
Many people are gnashing their teeth over John Shurna's relatively poor game (3-14, 1-9 for 12 points in 36 minutes). Folks let's not lose our minds. Shurna is Shurna which is to say he is our all-star. Even all-stars can have a down game or three.
Next up for Northwestern (9-1) is Eastern Illinois (6-3) an also-ran in the Ohio Valley Conference. Unlike today's game this one should be another cupcake blowout. Game is on BTN. Huzzah for out-of-town studentatics who can finally catch a far away glimpse of this team.
Many people are gnashing their teeth over John Shurna's relatively poor game (3-14, 1-9 for 12 points in 36 minutes). Folks let's not lose our minds. Shurna is Shurna which is to say he is our all-star. Even all-stars can have a down game or three.
Next up for Northwestern (9-1) is Eastern Illinois (6-3) an also-ran in the Ohio Valley Conference. Unlike today's game this one should be another cupcake blowout. Game is on BTN. Huzzah for out-of-town studentatics who can finally catch a far away glimpse of this team.
15 December 2011
NU 81 Texas Southern 51 (F)
NU shot out to a 23-3 lead in the opening 10 minutes of this game and basically never looked back. That and the fact no one got injured are all one really needs to take away from the game. Alex Marcotullio sat out in a precautionary move for his turf toe. Good choice as his absence did not matter one iota.
We do have one bone to pick, and it's with WGN and the NU blogosphere who have repeatedly mentioned that this was NU's most lopsided victory of the year. While this is technically true if one looks solely at the final score, the reality is that this game wasn't quite as one sided as that MVSU game a couple of weeks ago when NU led by 41 points. In the first half!!! That game was easily the most lopsided NU victory in recent memory if not ever.
Moving on. Next up is Central Connecticut State of the Northeast Conference on Saturday. CenConn is one of the top programs in the NEC but that just means their cream filling is only slightly denser than Texas Southern which is one of the top programs in the SWAC. We last saw CenConn and Howie the Dick Dickenman two year ago when NU easily dispatched the CenConners 74-54. According to kenpom CenConn is similar in strength to Stony Brook. Someone get Coach C to point this out to the team so that they don't nearly sleepwalk their way to a loss like they did against SBU. Other than that let's just get a W and again with no season jeopardizing injuries. That is all.
We do have one bone to pick, and it's with WGN and the NU blogosphere who have repeatedly mentioned that this was NU's most lopsided victory of the year. While this is technically true if one looks solely at the final score, the reality is that this game wasn't quite as one sided as that MVSU game a couple of weeks ago when NU led by 41 points. In the first half!!! That game was easily the most lopsided NU victory in recent memory if not ever.
Moving on. Next up is Central Connecticut State of the Northeast Conference on Saturday. CenConn is one of the top programs in the NEC but that just means their cream filling is only slightly denser than Texas Southern which is one of the top programs in the SWAC. We last saw CenConn and Howie the Dick Dickenman two year ago when NU easily dispatched the CenConners 74-54. According to kenpom CenConn is similar in strength to Stony Brook. Someone get Coach C to point this out to the team so that they don't nearly sleepwalk their way to a loss like they did against SBU. Other than that let's just get a W and again with no season jeopardizing injuries. That is all.
It feels like midnight on Christmas Eve
The long wait is finally over. The much anticipated game against the Texas Southern, errrrr, "Southerners?" is nigh. The interwebs have been abuzz for a week, press row will be jammed pack, standing room only, the band a-blazin', the Welsh a-rockin'.
What's that? The students are on break? Skeleton band at best? The Southerners suck eggs? OK so this isn't the game of the year, but one thing is for sure--the players have been looking forward to washing out the taste of that ugly Baylor game for quite some time. We actually have been looking forward to this game because 10 days between games is far, far too long of a wait in college basketball.
What's that? The students are on break? Skeleton band at best? The Southerners suck eggs? OK so this isn't the game of the year, but one thing is for sure--the players have been looking forward to washing out the taste of that ugly Baylor game for quite some time. We actually have been looking forward to this game because 10 days between games is far, far too long of a wait in college basketball.
06 December 2011
NU's 2012 B1G Schedule Analysis
By now we have an initial feel for the B1G's overall strength as well as some familiarity with our conference foes. This is as good a time
as any to peak ahead at what's in store for NU next year in conference with an eye for what it will take for NU to finally get the monkey off its back and make the NCAAs.
In our estimation to be on the bubble NU will need to finish 8-10 in conference assuming a win at Creighton on December 22nd and otherwise 9-9. The bubble would burst if NU lost its first round B1G tourney game against a bottom B1G team. So how does this season shape up as NU once again strives to break through that NCAAs glass ceiling? As we did last year, we find it helpful to chart NU's course by first organizing NU’s conference games into four categories: Egg, Low Hanging Fruit, Bling, and Wheaties games.
Categorizing NU's B1G Schedule
Egg (2)
Egg games are those in which NU is projected to win at least 3/4ths of the time (per kenpom.com):
Penn State, Iowa
Low Hanging Fruit (6)
These are games that NU is projected to win but with less than a 75% probability:
Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan, at Penn St, at Iowa
Bling (5)
These are games that NU has between 25%-50% chance of winning:
at Michigan, Michigan St, at Minnesota, Purdue, at Illinois
Wheaties (5)
These games are those which NU has less than a one in four chance of winning:
at Ohio St, at Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Indiana, Ohio St
Plotting NU's B1G Schedule
Now the 18 game conference season is more of a marathon than a sprint. And as any experienced marathoner knows it is helpful to split a race into definable segments so as to plot progress and determine in real time whether one is ahead of pace, on pace, or behind pace. In deference to NU's academic system we break the B1G marathon into trimesters to benchmark's NU progress. Together with our the organized buckets of games above we are able to use this trimester framework and adjust for differences in schedule difficulty, or hill gradients if you will, along the set schedule/course.
First Trimester
Egg: Penn St
LHF: Illinois
Bling: at Michigan, Michigan St
Wheaties: at Ohio St, at Wisconsin
In recent years the schedule makers have shown an affinity for throwing NU right into the B1G fire. This year is no different. The six game first trimester features just two games in which NU is favored, and NU will be significant underdogs in two of the other four games. With this difficult start to the B1G slate a 2-4 start to conference season would not be ideal but should be taken in stride if it were to come to pass. A 1-5 start would be cause for concern while a 3-3 record (e.g., defending the Welsh) would be cause for optimism.
Second Trimester
Egg: Iowa
LHF: Nebraska
Bling: at Minnesota, Purdue, at Illinois
Wheaties: at Purdue
Once again NU is favored in only 2 of these 6 games although there is only one Wheaties game during this stretch. Assuming a 2-4 first trimester record anything worse than 3-3 record here starts to back NU against the wall. NU successfully defending the home court would again do the trick.
Third Trimester
Egg: None
LHF: Minnesota, Michigan, at Penn St, at Iowa
Bling: None
Wheaties: at Indiana, Ohio St
NU has a chance to finish strong with four very winnable games and two golden opportunities to make a big impression on the Selection Committee. While the first two trimesters will be more about positioning NU for the NCAAs this last trimester will be make or break. There are a couple of winnable roadies during this stretch run. Win those and NU is looking ok. Better yet defeating OSU at the Welsh in the penultimate regular season game could really sway the Selection Committee.
Overall B1G Course Analysis
The way the schedule makers have set it up a sluggish start to the conference season is to be expected. NU fans should take this account and not be quick to toss out their NCAA dreams if NU finds itself at 2-4 to start out conference play. The middle part of the schedule eases ever so slightly, and it is by the end of this six game stretch NU will hopefully be at no worse than 5-7 so as to provide itself some cushion for the home stretch. And it is during this home stretch that NU has some downhill running and will need to get its kick hard for that NCAAs finish line.
There is a real opportunity here for NU to finish strong which would help with the NCAAs resume. The layout of the B1G schedule is both a blessing and a curse. It is a blessing in that it will give the freshmen guards time to acclimate to B1G play in time for this pivotal stretch run. The blessing could turn into a curse if 1) the freshmen struggles through the first two-thirds of the season are such that NU's back up is put up against the wall or 2) the freshmen themselves hit the proverbial wall by then.
What happens is anyone's guess at the moment. Stay tuned.
In our estimation to be on the bubble NU will need to finish 8-10 in conference assuming a win at Creighton on December 22nd and otherwise 9-9. The bubble would burst if NU lost its first round B1G tourney game against a bottom B1G team. So how does this season shape up as NU once again strives to break through that NCAAs glass ceiling? As we did last year, we find it helpful to chart NU's course by first organizing NU’s conference games into four categories: Egg, Low Hanging Fruit, Bling, and Wheaties games.
Categorizing NU's B1G Schedule
Egg (2)
Egg games are those in which NU is projected to win at least 3/4ths of the time (per kenpom.com):
Penn State, Iowa
Low Hanging Fruit (6)
These are games that NU is projected to win but with less than a 75% probability:
Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan, at Penn St, at Iowa
Bling (5)
These are games that NU has between 25%-50% chance of winning:
at Michigan, Michigan St, at Minnesota, Purdue, at Illinois
Wheaties (5)
These games are those which NU has less than a one in four chance of winning:
at Ohio St, at Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Indiana, Ohio St
Plotting NU's B1G Schedule
Now the 18 game conference season is more of a marathon than a sprint. And as any experienced marathoner knows it is helpful to split a race into definable segments so as to plot progress and determine in real time whether one is ahead of pace, on pace, or behind pace. In deference to NU's academic system we break the B1G marathon into trimesters to benchmark's NU progress. Together with our the organized buckets of games above we are able to use this trimester framework and adjust for differences in schedule difficulty, or hill gradients if you will, along the set schedule/course.
First Trimester
Egg: Penn St
LHF: Illinois
Bling: at Michigan, Michigan St
Wheaties: at Ohio St, at Wisconsin
In recent years the schedule makers have shown an affinity for throwing NU right into the B1G fire. This year is no different. The six game first trimester features just two games in which NU is favored, and NU will be significant underdogs in two of the other four games. With this difficult start to the B1G slate a 2-4 start to conference season would not be ideal but should be taken in stride if it were to come to pass. A 1-5 start would be cause for concern while a 3-3 record (e.g., defending the Welsh) would be cause for optimism.
Second Trimester
Egg: Iowa
LHF: Nebraska
Bling: at Minnesota, Purdue, at Illinois
Wheaties: at Purdue
Once again NU is favored in only 2 of these 6 games although there is only one Wheaties game during this stretch. Assuming a 2-4 first trimester record anything worse than 3-3 record here starts to back NU against the wall. NU successfully defending the home court would again do the trick.
Third Trimester
Egg: None
LHF: Minnesota, Michigan, at Penn St, at Iowa
Bling: None
Wheaties: at Indiana, Ohio St
NU has a chance to finish strong with four very winnable games and two golden opportunities to make a big impression on the Selection Committee. While the first two trimesters will be more about positioning NU for the NCAAs this last trimester will be make or break. There are a couple of winnable roadies during this stretch run. Win those and NU is looking ok. Better yet defeating OSU at the Welsh in the penultimate regular season game could really sway the Selection Committee.
Overall B1G Course Analysis
The way the schedule makers have set it up a sluggish start to the conference season is to be expected. NU fans should take this account and not be quick to toss out their NCAA dreams if NU finds itself at 2-4 to start out conference play. The middle part of the schedule eases ever so slightly, and it is by the end of this six game stretch NU will hopefully be at no worse than 5-7 so as to provide itself some cushion for the home stretch. And it is during this home stretch that NU has some downhill running and will need to get its kick hard for that NCAAs finish line.
There is a real opportunity here for NU to finish strong which would help with the NCAAs resume. The layout of the B1G schedule is both a blessing and a curse. It is a blessing in that it will give the freshmen guards time to acclimate to B1G play in time for this pivotal stretch run. The blessing could turn into a curse if 1) the freshmen struggles through the first two-thirds of the season are such that NU's back up is put up against the wall or 2) the freshmen themselves hit the proverbial wall by then.
What happens is anyone's guess at the moment. Stay tuned.
05 December 2011
B1G Power Rankings - Finals Week Edition
With 12 teams now in the B1G this power ranking stuff is going to take 9.1% more effort. We're up to the task.
1. Ohio State (8-0) No brainer. Two big home wins over Florida and Duke. Only question remains how they will play on the road.
2. Wisconsin (6-2) Lost at home to Marquette and at UNC. Marquette loss was a surprise but may have just been one of those nights. Only notable win against BYU on neutral court.
3. Purdue (7-2) Lost to Alabama in a tourney and Xavier on the road. Defeated Iona (no typo - they are good!), Temple and Miami.
4. Michigan State (6-2) Lost to Duke and UNC on neutral courts. Defeated FSU at home.
5. Illinois (8-0) Defeated the 'Zags at home, Richmond on neutral court, and Maryland on the road. Difference has been Maniscalco their PG transfer and emergence of Meyers Leonard.
6. Indiana (8-0) Defeated NC State on the road. Zeller looks good, but the jury is only beginning deliberations on the Hoosiers.
7. Michigan (6-2) Lost at UVA and to Duke on neutral court. Defeated Memphis on neutral court. Will Trey Burke be able to fill Darius Morris's shoes? Hardaway and Morgan will help the cause.
8. Northwestern (7-1) Lost to Baylor at home. Three neutral court wins against NIT-type teams. Game at Creighton will be a good litmus test.
9. Minnesota (8-1) Surviving so far without Mbakwe but for how long? Nice win at home against VT.
10. Nebraska (4-3) Bad loss at home to Wake Forest. Also lost to Oregon at home and at Creighton. Best win was double OT at USC.
11. Iowa (5-3) Bad loss to Campbell at home. Also lost to Clemson at home and to Creighton on neutral court. No meaningful victories.
12. Penn State (6-3) No bad losses (Kentucky, St Joes, Mississippi) but no real meaningful wins. In basement until we see more under new coach without Talor Battle.
1. Ohio State (8-0) No brainer. Two big home wins over Florida and Duke. Only question remains how they will play on the road.
2. Wisconsin (6-2) Lost at home to Marquette and at UNC. Marquette loss was a surprise but may have just been one of those nights. Only notable win against BYU on neutral court.
3. Purdue (7-2) Lost to Alabama in a tourney and Xavier on the road. Defeated Iona (no typo - they are good!), Temple and Miami.
4. Michigan State (6-2) Lost to Duke and UNC on neutral courts. Defeated FSU at home.
5. Illinois (8-0) Defeated the 'Zags at home, Richmond on neutral court, and Maryland on the road. Difference has been Maniscalco their PG transfer and emergence of Meyers Leonard.
6. Indiana (8-0) Defeated NC State on the road. Zeller looks good, but the jury is only beginning deliberations on the Hoosiers.
7. Michigan (6-2) Lost at UVA and to Duke on neutral court. Defeated Memphis on neutral court. Will Trey Burke be able to fill Darius Morris's shoes? Hardaway and Morgan will help the cause.
8. Northwestern (7-1) Lost to Baylor at home. Three neutral court wins against NIT-type teams. Game at Creighton will be a good litmus test.
9. Minnesota (8-1) Surviving so far without Mbakwe but for how long? Nice win at home against VT.
10. Nebraska (4-3) Bad loss at home to Wake Forest. Also lost to Oregon at home and at Creighton. Best win was double OT at USC.
11. Iowa (5-3) Bad loss to Campbell at home. Also lost to Clemson at home and to Creighton on neutral court. No meaningful victories.
12. Penn State (6-3) No bad losses (Kentucky, St Joes, Mississippi) but no real meaningful wins. In basement until we see more under new coach without Talor Battle.
Baylor 69 NU 41 (F)
Overheard in stands: "Am I really jeopardizing by macro grade for THIS?!?!?!" It could be worse. We could be subjected to this kind of offense game-in and game-out if NU's previous head coach, Kevin O'Neill were still the coach. Davide Curletti should give thanks on a daily basis that ain't the case (just ask Aaron "f#$k you" Molnar) although Luka Mirkovic is missing out on a golden opportunity to expand his repertoire of American expletives.
Suffice it to say that NU wilted like a flower in this game. The conventional wisdom is that Baylor was simply too much for NU. We kinda disagree. Baylor probably has the most NBA-level talent of any NU opponent this year not located in Columbus. To be sure it was an uphill battle with their strengths matched up against our weaknesses. However to get blown out like that was a direct reflection of NU's lack of senior leadership. Does anyone really think that Juice Thompson wouldn't have rallied the troops better than John Shurna did? C'mon.
And that is what was most disappointing about the blowout loss. Bad shooting happens, but there is no reason it must snowball into the drubbing that occurred on Sunday. Fact is that NU was getting good looks with its offense. Just stick with it and keep plugging away until momentum shifts. We were the HOME team for goodness sakes. A couple of bombs and the Welsh was ready to rock and roll.
Instead NU went into a shell on offense. Open looks from distance were passed up in favor of drives to the lane which were promptly swatted into the third row. Passes to the unguarded charity stripe were never capitalized upon as our centers didn't realize they were allowed to turn around and shoot the damn ball.
On defense NU was simply overmatched down low. We needed more ball pressure given Baylor's propensity to turn it over. We saw that on occasion early in the second half, but inexplicably NU didn't keep it up. WTF?!?!?
NU is down from #34 in kenpom to #52. Ugh. NU is now projected to go 8-10 in the B1G and 18-12 overall. Not good.
On the lighter side check out this thread on Texas A&M's message board. Several of our buddies concur. We got a good chuckle out of the Aggies throwing in the towel at the end and posting a pic of Sig from Deadliest Catch. It's a good thing Loyola is only a short CTA trip away, and it's not a good thing that NU is going to get thrashed by the Aggies in the Meineke Bowl.
NU is back in action against Texas Southern after finals week on December 15. If a tree falls in the woods and no one hears it...
Suffice it to say that NU wilted like a flower in this game. The conventional wisdom is that Baylor was simply too much for NU. We kinda disagree. Baylor probably has the most NBA-level talent of any NU opponent this year not located in Columbus. To be sure it was an uphill battle with their strengths matched up against our weaknesses. However to get blown out like that was a direct reflection of NU's lack of senior leadership. Does anyone really think that Juice Thompson wouldn't have rallied the troops better than John Shurna did? C'mon.
And that is what was most disappointing about the blowout loss. Bad shooting happens, but there is no reason it must snowball into the drubbing that occurred on Sunday. Fact is that NU was getting good looks with its offense. Just stick with it and keep plugging away until momentum shifts. We were the HOME team for goodness sakes. A couple of bombs and the Welsh was ready to rock and roll.
Instead NU went into a shell on offense. Open looks from distance were passed up in favor of drives to the lane which were promptly swatted into the third row. Passes to the unguarded charity stripe were never capitalized upon as our centers didn't realize they were allowed to turn around and shoot the damn ball.
On defense NU was simply overmatched down low. We needed more ball pressure given Baylor's propensity to turn it over. We saw that on occasion early in the second half, but inexplicably NU didn't keep it up. WTF?!?!?
NU is down from #34 in kenpom to #52. Ugh. NU is now projected to go 8-10 in the B1G and 18-12 overall. Not good.
On the lighter side check out this thread on Texas A&M's message board. Several of our buddies concur. We got a good chuckle out of the Aggies throwing in the towel at the end and posting a pic of Sig from Deadliest Catch. It's a good thing Loyola is only a short CTA trip away, and it's not a good thing that NU is going to get thrashed by the Aggies in the Meineke Bowl.
NU is back in action against Texas Southern after finals week on December 15. If a tree falls in the woods and no one hears it...
04 December 2011
NU debuts at #15 in unbiased Sagarin
That is up from 20 in the bayesian rankings and good for second in the B1G. Of note is Baylor at 28 and Creighton at 13.
03 December 2011
NU 92 MVSU 67 (F)
This game was the very definition of a mismatch. Simply put NU (7-0) could do whatever they wanted on offense, and conversely MVSU could do absolutely nothing they wanted on offense. Late in the first half NU led 59-18. We could go on about record setting team efforts and a run down of individual play, but that score captures the very essence of this game. The final score was only a 25 point margin since NU called off the dogs in the first part of the second half and then called off the pups for the remainder.
NU's next opponent, #7/8 Baylor Bears (6-0), couldn't provide a much starker contrast for an opponent to MVSU. Baylor is undefeated, a favorite in the rugged Big 12, and oozing with tall, rangy athletes bound for the NBA. We read that this game features the highest ranked visitor from outside the B1G in over 20 years (Duke 1989). The Welsh should be rockin'--finals week be damned. With a top 25 ranking all but assured with a W it will be high time to storm the court after NU dispatches of da bears and raises the programs profile onto the national stage. Make it so!
NU's next opponent, #7/8 Baylor Bears (6-0), couldn't provide a much starker contrast for an opponent to MVSU. Baylor is undefeated, a favorite in the rugged Big 12, and oozing with tall, rangy athletes bound for the NBA. We read that this game features the highest ranked visitor from outside the B1G in over 20 years (Duke 1989). The Welsh should be rockin'--finals week be damned. With a top 25 ranking all but assured with a W it will be high time to storm the court after NU dispatches of da bears and raises the programs profile onto the national stage. Make it so!
02 December 2011
B1G 8 ACC 4 - Recap
The B1G reinforced its early reputation this year as the nation's best conference. Which B1G teams gained the most from their ACC challenge? Which lost the most? We use the endlessly entertaining kenpom data to answer these questions:
Most Gained
1. Northwestern Ranking improved 8 spots from 42 to 34, which is tied with Illinois for the largest leap up the rankings. NU's pre-game 48% win probability jumped to a post-game 55.8% win probability, the largest increase of all B1G teams. Add in the fact that NU led wire-to-wire on the road and that at its peak of suspense only 4% of this evenly matched game (on paper) had a medium-high leverage, and it's somewhat surprising that NU's victory hasn't raised more eyebrows among the pundits.
2. Illinois Ranking improved 8 spots from 46 to 38. Pre-game 55% win probability jumped to a post-game 60.6% win probability, the second largest increase of all B1G teams. Illinois had a more competitive game than NU with 44.1% of the game played with medium-high leverage and 1.5% of the game played with high leverage. All in all an impressive win for the Illini at Maryland -- just not as impressive as NU's at GT.
3. Ohio State Statistically OSU did not improve much, but that is partly a function of the fact there wasn't much statistical upside for the Buckeyes. Their already lofty #3 ranking bumped up one spot as they switched places with Wisconsin. The win probability increased by 3.3% to 81.3%, the fifth largest increase for B1G teams. We rank OSU third in this list because of the manner in which they pantsed the Dukies (93% of the game was of medium-low or low leverage) which has elevated the Buckeyes in the national conversation from B1G favorite to serious NCAAs contender.
4. Michigan State Ranking improved just one spot (up to 13) but win probability jumped 5% up to 73% (3rd largest increase). The win was expected and the game was played in EL, but the manner in which Sparty dispatched of FSU with its stout defense was impressive -- only 17% of the game was played at medium-high leverage.
5. Indiana At first blush we thought the Hoosiers would be higher on this list since they won on the road against a respectable NC State team. However the stats don't really support it. This is because kenpom already had the Hoosiers ranked #20 (now #19). When we considered the fact that the win probability increased by 4.5% (just behind Sparty's increase) together with the more highly leveraged nature of IU's game (over half the game was medium-high or high levered) we felt justified putting them behind MSU on this list.
Most Lost
1. Iowa Pre-game Iowa had a 45% chance of winning their home game with Clemson. Post-game that probability dropped to 37.2%, a 7.8% decrease that was easily the largest drop among B1G teams. Furthermore the Hawkeyes ranking dropped 20 spots from 105 to 125. These decreases are supported by the leverage statistics -- for a game on paper was supposed to be a near toss-up, a loss played nearly half of the time under medium-low or low leverage with no minutes played above medium leverage is just plain bad. There is no way around it -- this was an ugly loss for Iowa.
2. Nebraska As newcomers to the B1G the Huskers were an unknown quantity. Needless to say our first look did not impress as they were upset at home by a weak Wake Forest squad. Given a 86% pre-game win probability there is no way nearly half the game should've been played under medium-high or high leveraged conditions let alone resulted in a loss. To be frank we were surprised that Nebraska's win probability dropped by only 4.8% and their ranking fell only 6 rungs from #60 to #66. We will try to remember that this was just one game, but we are having a hard time imagining the Huskers finishing anywhere higher than 9th in the B1G.
3. Michigan The Wolverines had a fair amount of buzz going into Tuesday's game in Charlottesville thanks to a decent showing in Hawaii against Memphis, Duke and UCLA. The problem with the early season is that reputations sometimes don't meet reality. In this case it is becoming ever more clear that those three opponents aren't living up to their billing at the moment. In other words the Wolverines reputation was overblown since it was predicated on performances against overrated teams. Anywho back to the game with Coach Bennett's Cavs ... Michigan was expected to lose (38% pre-game win probability) but just not so badly. The game was somewhat more competitive than the final score indicated (nearly 40% of the game was medium-high leverage), but that wasn't enough to drop the Wolverines 5 spots in the kenpom rankings and decrease their post-game win probability by 3.6%. It was a disappointing effort from the Wolverines.
Most Gained
1. Northwestern Ranking improved 8 spots from 42 to 34, which is tied with Illinois for the largest leap up the rankings. NU's pre-game 48% win probability jumped to a post-game 55.8% win probability, the largest increase of all B1G teams. Add in the fact that NU led wire-to-wire on the road and that at its peak of suspense only 4% of this evenly matched game (on paper) had a medium-high leverage, and it's somewhat surprising that NU's victory hasn't raised more eyebrows among the pundits.
2. Illinois Ranking improved 8 spots from 46 to 38. Pre-game 55% win probability jumped to a post-game 60.6% win probability, the second largest increase of all B1G teams. Illinois had a more competitive game than NU with 44.1% of the game played with medium-high leverage and 1.5% of the game played with high leverage. All in all an impressive win for the Illini at Maryland -- just not as impressive as NU's at GT.
3. Ohio State Statistically OSU did not improve much, but that is partly a function of the fact there wasn't much statistical upside for the Buckeyes. Their already lofty #3 ranking bumped up one spot as they switched places with Wisconsin. The win probability increased by 3.3% to 81.3%, the fifth largest increase for B1G teams. We rank OSU third in this list because of the manner in which they pantsed the Dukies (93% of the game was of medium-low or low leverage) which has elevated the Buckeyes in the national conversation from B1G favorite to serious NCAAs contender.
4. Michigan State Ranking improved just one spot (up to 13) but win probability jumped 5% up to 73% (3rd largest increase). The win was expected and the game was played in EL, but the manner in which Sparty dispatched of FSU with its stout defense was impressive -- only 17% of the game was played at medium-high leverage.
5. Indiana At first blush we thought the Hoosiers would be higher on this list since they won on the road against a respectable NC State team. However the stats don't really support it. This is because kenpom already had the Hoosiers ranked #20 (now #19). When we considered the fact that the win probability increased by 4.5% (just behind Sparty's increase) together with the more highly leveraged nature of IU's game (over half the game was medium-high or high levered) we felt justified putting them behind MSU on this list.
Most Lost
1. Iowa Pre-game Iowa had a 45% chance of winning their home game with Clemson. Post-game that probability dropped to 37.2%, a 7.8% decrease that was easily the largest drop among B1G teams. Furthermore the Hawkeyes ranking dropped 20 spots from 105 to 125. These decreases are supported by the leverage statistics -- for a game on paper was supposed to be a near toss-up, a loss played nearly half of the time under medium-low or low leverage with no minutes played above medium leverage is just plain bad. There is no way around it -- this was an ugly loss for Iowa.
2. Nebraska As newcomers to the B1G the Huskers were an unknown quantity. Needless to say our first look did not impress as they were upset at home by a weak Wake Forest squad. Given a 86% pre-game win probability there is no way nearly half the game should've been played under medium-high or high leveraged conditions let alone resulted in a loss. To be frank we were surprised that Nebraska's win probability dropped by only 4.8% and their ranking fell only 6 rungs from #60 to #66. We will try to remember that this was just one game, but we are having a hard time imagining the Huskers finishing anywhere higher than 9th in the B1G.
3. Michigan The Wolverines had a fair amount of buzz going into Tuesday's game in Charlottesville thanks to a decent showing in Hawaii against Memphis, Duke and UCLA. The problem with the early season is that reputations sometimes don't meet reality. In this case it is becoming ever more clear that those three opponents aren't living up to their billing at the moment. In other words the Wolverines reputation was overblown since it was predicated on performances against overrated teams. Anywho back to the game with Coach Bennett's Cavs ... Michigan was expected to lose (38% pre-game win probability) but just not so badly. The game was somewhat more competitive than the final score indicated (nearly 40% of the game was medium-high leverage), but that wasn't enough to drop the Wolverines 5 spots in the kenpom rankings and decrease their post-game win probability by 3.6%. It was a disappointing effort from the Wolverines.
30 November 2011
NU 76 GEORGIA TECH 60 (F)
We are on Cloud Nine. Not only did NU's wire-to-wire victory last night at Georgia Tech provide for a most enjoyable meal but also it was followed by a delectable dessert when Ohio State pantsed Duke on ESPN with a disheartened DukieV on the call. What a perfect evening of college basketball.
Northwestern outclassed the Yellow Jackets once again in the Challenge rematch. The game was over for all intents and purposes with 5 minutes to go in the second half. What a joy it was to watch NU dominate an ACC foe on the road.
Johnny Shurna showed off his all-around game. Drew Crawford continued to show that he is ready to elevate his game this year. Dave Sobolewski continued to grow remarkably into the point guard role. Reggie Hearn provided solid minutes especially on the defensive end. Luka Mirkovic got his offense on. Alex Marcotullio showed improvement. Even Davide Curletti knocked down a wide open three. The only real downer about the game was JerShon Cobb dressed in street clothes for his homecoming. JerShon's family and friends had to be disappointed when they received the news that he sustained a mild concussion in the Stony Brook game and would be forced to sit this one out.
In the bigger picture the B1G leads the ACC 4 games to 2. We aren't surprised by the W-L outcomes of last night's games, but we are surprised by the lack of competitiveness in each of the games. To whit the closest final margin of victory was 9 points (Illinois over Maryland in College Park). Things are looking good for the B1G in this year's challenge. Even if we adjust the kenpom probabilities to reflect the fact that North Carolina is favored by 7 points or so in their battle with Wisconsin, the B1G now stands about a 83% chance of winning this thing for three years running with the most likely outcome a 8-4 victory.
In the even bigger picture NU basketball has now put together several rock solid foundation stones for its proverbial NCAAs facebook wall. Two more large stones are on the horizon with Baylor coming to visit the Welsh on Sunday and then a roadie at Creighton on December 22nd. However let's not get the cart before the horse. Next up is a Friday evening date at the Welsh with M-I-S-S-I-S-S-I-P-P-I Valley State (1-5) of the Southwestern Athletic Conference. The Delta Devils are projected to be the class of the SWAC which really isn't saying much since the SWAC is rated by kenpom as the weakest in all the land. MVSU is currently ranked #275 by kenpom which is subject to change with a game at Arkansas on the docket for tonight (forgive us for penning in a L for the DDevils in the countdown clock).
Northwestern outclassed the Yellow Jackets once again in the Challenge rematch. The game was over for all intents and purposes with 5 minutes to go in the second half. What a joy it was to watch NU dominate an ACC foe on the road.
Johnny Shurna showed off his all-around game. Drew Crawford continued to show that he is ready to elevate his game this year. Dave Sobolewski continued to grow remarkably into the point guard role. Reggie Hearn provided solid minutes especially on the defensive end. Luka Mirkovic got his offense on. Alex Marcotullio showed improvement. Even Davide Curletti knocked down a wide open three. The only real downer about the game was JerShon Cobb dressed in street clothes for his homecoming. JerShon's family and friends had to be disappointed when they received the news that he sustained a mild concussion in the Stony Brook game and would be forced to sit this one out.
In the bigger picture the B1G leads the ACC 4 games to 2. We aren't surprised by the W-L outcomes of last night's games, but we are surprised by the lack of competitiveness in each of the games. To whit the closest final margin of victory was 9 points (Illinois over Maryland in College Park). Things are looking good for the B1G in this year's challenge. Even if we adjust the kenpom probabilities to reflect the fact that North Carolina is favored by 7 points or so in their battle with Wisconsin, the B1G now stands about a 83% chance of winning this thing for three years running with the most likely outcome a 8-4 victory.
In the even bigger picture NU basketball has now put together several rock solid foundation stones for its proverbial NCAAs facebook wall. Two more large stones are on the horizon with Baylor coming to visit the Welsh on Sunday and then a roadie at Creighton on December 22nd. However let's not get the cart before the horse. Next up is a Friday evening date at the Welsh with M-I-S-S-I-S-S-I-P-P-I Valley State (1-5) of the Southwestern Athletic Conference. The Delta Devils are projected to be the class of the SWAC which really isn't saying much since the SWAC is rated by kenpom as the weakest in all the land. MVSU is currently ranked #275 by kenpom which is subject to change with a game at Arkansas on the docket for tonight (forgive us for penning in a L for the DDevils in the countdown clock).
28 November 2011
NU 63 Stony Brook 58 (F)
We didn’t get to watch this game so we don’t have much to say. From the box score Sobolewski had his most productive offensive game so far knocking down 5-9 shots from the field including 3-7 from beyond the arc. He also had 4 rebounds and 1 blocked shot. More troubling are the three turnovers he had on just four assists – with this coming against a Stony Brook team not known for its ball hawking abilities.
Anywho others of note include Johnny Shurna who had a rather poor shooting game from beyond the arc (2-8) but made up for it by knocking down all five his two point shots and 4/6 free throws for a total of 20 points. Drew Crawford poured in 14 points and nabbed a team high 7 boards (Shurna had 6). Reggie Hearn had a productive 24 minutes which included 8 points, 3 boards and a steal.
Next up for NU (5-0) is a road trip to Atlanta to take on Georgia Tech (4-2) as part of the B1G-ACC Challenge. This is the second straight game between these two squads as part of this Challenge with NU last year riding an extremely efficient 55 point first half to an easy 91-71 victory at the Welsh. This year’s game will be different for a couple obvious reasons. First: location. ‘nuf said. Second Ga Tech is now coached by Brian Gregory. We'll go out on a very thick limb and predict that Gregory will do a much better job coaching up his team to defend NU’s offense than former coach Hewitt (it would be hard to do any worse). It’s still early but Ga Tech has shown an improved defense this year lending additional reason to believe this will be a much tougher slog down in Mylanta.
The B1G has only recently started to hold up its end of the bargain in this annual challenge. Before the B1G won the last two years 6-5 the ACC had started off the series 10-0 including some lopsided victory totals. This year the B1G is favored in 9 of the 12 games per kenpom. NU is expected to be one of the losses (falling 65-66 to the Rambling Wrecks). The other expected losses are Michigan (at UVA) and Iowa (hosting Clemson). Minnesota is expected to defeat VaTech by 4 points at McDonalds Arena, but Mbakwe may be out for the game so that forecast goes out the window.
Other fun facts: overall NU is 5-7 in this Challenge, tied with the Illwhini for the third best B1G record (Wisky and OSU both are at .500). NU is riding a three game win streak in the series which is tied for the longest B1G streak (Wisky, OSU). NU’s opponent this year, Ga Tech, is 4-7 in the Challenge which is the third worst ACC record. Most interesting game of the slate: Wisky at UNC. This will be a battle of tempo between two heavyweights. Wisky has the 345th fastest tempo (i.e., they are the slowest team in Div 1) while UNC plays the 5th fastest.
Anywho others of note include Johnny Shurna who had a rather poor shooting game from beyond the arc (2-8) but made up for it by knocking down all five his two point shots and 4/6 free throws for a total of 20 points. Drew Crawford poured in 14 points and nabbed a team high 7 boards (Shurna had 6). Reggie Hearn had a productive 24 minutes which included 8 points, 3 boards and a steal.
Next up for NU (5-0) is a road trip to Atlanta to take on Georgia Tech (4-2) as part of the B1G-ACC Challenge. This is the second straight game between these two squads as part of this Challenge with NU last year riding an extremely efficient 55 point first half to an easy 91-71 victory at the Welsh. This year’s game will be different for a couple obvious reasons. First: location. ‘nuf said. Second Ga Tech is now coached by Brian Gregory. We'll go out on a very thick limb and predict that Gregory will do a much better job coaching up his team to defend NU’s offense than former coach Hewitt (it would be hard to do any worse). It’s still early but Ga Tech has shown an improved defense this year lending additional reason to believe this will be a much tougher slog down in Mylanta.
The B1G has only recently started to hold up its end of the bargain in this annual challenge. Before the B1G won the last two years 6-5 the ACC had started off the series 10-0 including some lopsided victory totals. This year the B1G is favored in 9 of the 12 games per kenpom. NU is expected to be one of the losses (falling 65-66 to the Rambling Wrecks). The other expected losses are Michigan (at UVA) and Iowa (hosting Clemson). Minnesota is expected to defeat VaTech by 4 points at McDonalds Arena, but Mbakwe may be out for the game so that forecast goes out the window.
Other fun facts: overall NU is 5-7 in this Challenge, tied with the Illwhini for the third best B1G record (Wisky and OSU both are at .500). NU is riding a three game win streak in the series which is tied for the longest B1G streak (Wisky, OSU). NU’s opponent this year, Ga Tech, is 4-7 in the Challenge which is the third worst ACC record. Most interesting game of the slate: Wisky at UNC. This will be a battle of tempo between two heavyweights. Wisky has the 345th fastest tempo (i.e., they are the slowest team in Div 1) while UNC plays the 5th fastest.
24 November 2011
NU 80 Seton Hall 73 (F)
We are four days late with this recap which makes us about as timely as Sports Illustrated. Thus we figure it apropos that we take this post then to anoint Drew Crawford, "The Real Deal Too". Tourney MVP Crawford led NU (4-0) to the Charleston Classic title with a 27 point effort that kidney punched the Pirates who game planned to pull out the stops and slow our man Johnny Shurna. Drew showed a dead eye from distance, a tenacity in attacking the tin, solid defensive effort in help and on ball defense, and improved shot selection. Alls we gots to say is it's about time you started fulfiling your potential Drew.
The Hall were led by future NBA mainstay Herb Pope who really looked like a man among boys out there (as much as we like Johnny S and Drew C, Pope is a bona fide, prototypical NBA talent). SHU looked to be outclassed until they realized the mismatch they had with Pope which helped propel the Hall to a 15-0 run over a six minute stretch in the second half Pope was very impressive down in the blocks and looked effortless in knocking down a couple of bombs.
NU employed the 1-3-1 to successfully stem the tide and put NU back on even footing. The game was nip and tuck for 8 minutes following the big Pirate run. It wasn't really until after Marcotullio knocked down a couple of big free throws to stretch the lead to 75-69 with about a minute to play that we felt comfortable with the game. Shurna's emphatic dunk that stretched the lead to eight with about 20 seconds to play was the final nail in the Pirates' coffin.
Next up are the Seawolves of Stony Brook. Who is Stony Brook? They are a SUNY school located on the northern shore of longgisland. They play in the America East Conference and have kenpom rating of 177 which is the second highest ranking in their conference (Vermont - 120). The seawolves are coming off a comfortable 67-53 victory over Columbia. Their colors are scarlet red and gray (tOSU anyone?), the school has been around for just over half a century, and their mascot's name is Wolfie the Sea Wolf (we'd say that's pretty lame but really is no different than our Willie the Wildcat. Expect a slow paced game with bothering teams trying to protect the ball on offense and force turnovers on defense. We expect some one-on-one plays from The seawolves, and we expect to see lots of room for NUs bombers. Bring it on Wolfie!
The Hall were led by future NBA mainstay Herb Pope who really looked like a man among boys out there (as much as we like Johnny S and Drew C, Pope is a bona fide, prototypical NBA talent). SHU looked to be outclassed until they realized the mismatch they had with Pope which helped propel the Hall to a 15-0 run over a six minute stretch in the second half Pope was very impressive down in the blocks and looked effortless in knocking down a couple of bombs.
NU employed the 1-3-1 to successfully stem the tide and put NU back on even footing. The game was nip and tuck for 8 minutes following the big Pirate run. It wasn't really until after Marcotullio knocked down a couple of big free throws to stretch the lead to 75-69 with about a minute to play that we felt comfortable with the game. Shurna's emphatic dunk that stretched the lead to eight with about 20 seconds to play was the final nail in the Pirates' coffin.
Next up are the Seawolves of Stony Brook. Who is Stony Brook? They are a SUNY school located on the northern shore of longgisland. They play in the America East Conference and have kenpom rating of 177 which is the second highest ranking in their conference (Vermont - 120). The seawolves are coming off a comfortable 67-53 victory over Columbia. Their colors are scarlet red and gray (tOSU anyone?), the school has been around for just over half a century, and their mascot's name is Wolfie the Sea Wolf (we'd say that's pretty lame but really is no different than our Willie the Wildcat. Expect a slow paced game with bothering teams trying to protect the ball on offense and force turnovers on defense. We expect some one-on-one plays from The seawolves, and we expect to see lots of room for NUs bombers. Bring it on Wolfie!
18 November 2011
NU 69 Tulsa 63 (F)
So far so good. NU (3-0) won a closely contested battle with the Golden Hurricanes this afternoon thanks in no small part to Drew Crawford's efforts. Crawford picked up where he left off in the second half of yesterday's victory over LSU with solid all around play. Drew scored a game high and efficient 28 points on 11-19 shooting including 5-8 from downtown. He also collected 4 boards, 1 assist, 1 block, and 1 steal.
Crawford's efforts were needed because Shurna was slowed down by Tulsa's focused defensive efforts and the length of soph center Kodi Maduka. Shurna managed to score 15 points but needed 16 shots to do so. Sobolewski played a solid 35 minutes while tallying 9 points and, more importantly, 3 assists to zero turnover ratio. This kid's ball handling and decision making is impressive given this was just his third game at the collegiate level. Reggie Hearn also got the start, and we like what he brings to the table on the defensive end, and he can take advantage of open shots on offense while at the same time not making dumb decisions. The other starter, Mirkovic, had a better game than yesterday but still nothing to write home to Belgrade about.
Off the bench, Cobb looked a bit shaky while Curletti and Marcotullio again had games to forget. For some reason fans love to make excuses for Marcotullio while nit pick every little thing that Mirkovic doesn't do perfectly. Mirk ain't exactly Superman out there, but these increasingly common calls for going small are simply ridiculous. Mirk is at worst serviceable. We think that he's just getting warmed up.
Next up is Seton Hall on Sunday evening at 730pm Central. NU last played the Hall back in December 2006 in a forgettable 44-42 victory. We're grateful we weren't around to witness such an epic thriller. Anywho this year the Hall is comparable to NU at least per Sagarin and Pomeroy. Color us skeptical about the Hall as memories of how overrated the Big Least was last year is fresh in our memories.
Crawford's efforts were needed because Shurna was slowed down by Tulsa's focused defensive efforts and the length of soph center Kodi Maduka. Shurna managed to score 15 points but needed 16 shots to do so. Sobolewski played a solid 35 minutes while tallying 9 points and, more importantly, 3 assists to zero turnover ratio. This kid's ball handling and decision making is impressive given this was just his third game at the collegiate level. Reggie Hearn also got the start, and we like what he brings to the table on the defensive end, and he can take advantage of open shots on offense while at the same time not making dumb decisions. The other starter, Mirkovic, had a better game than yesterday but still nothing to write home to Belgrade about.
Off the bench, Cobb looked a bit shaky while Curletti and Marcotullio again had games to forget. For some reason fans love to make excuses for Marcotullio while nit pick every little thing that Mirkovic doesn't do perfectly. Mirk ain't exactly Superman out there, but these increasingly common calls for going small are simply ridiculous. Mirk is at worst serviceable. We think that he's just getting warmed up.
Next up is Seton Hall on Sunday evening at 730pm Central. NU last played the Hall back in December 2006 in a forgettable 44-42 victory. We're grateful we weren't around to witness such an epic thriller. Anywho this year the Hall is comparable to NU at least per Sagarin and Pomeroy. Color us skeptical about the Hall as memories of how overrated the Big Least was last year is fresh in our memories.
Sparse NU basketball coverage
The usual media outlets have mailed it in and used the AP's report on the NU-LSU game. We miss you already, Lindsey Willhite. 'nuf said.
17 November 2011
NU 88 LSU 82 (F)
Carmody gambled a bit by holding off deploying the 1-3-1 until the second half . Good idea, Coach. By holding your cards, it prevented Trent Johnson from using halftime to coach up his kids on the 1-3-1 with some actual experience to draw upon. The chess master got out maneuvered!
LSU had the speed advantage, but their young back court was flummoxed by the 1-3-1 which NU used nearly exclusively in the second half after going with primarily man-to-man defense in the first stanza. We didn't see a single ball fake or a single head fake that is key to making the 1-3-1 lose its integrity. Nor did we see LSU stationing a shooter in the unguarded corners so perhaps Trent Johnson really doesn't know how to attack the 1-3-1. Doubtful seeing that he was COTY for three different conferences during his career.
Anywho NU used the 1-3-1 to force copious amounts of turnovers that turned into easy NU points while at the same time transferred confidence from LSU's precocious freshmen stars to the likes of Drew Crawford, JerShon Cobb, Reggie Hearn, and Dave Sobolewski. Shurna was already playing lights out in the first half so he just kept on keeping on en route to setting his collegiate high water mark of 37 points.
Drew Crawford's game really impressed us. He was easily NU's best defensive presence out there, and his offense looked brisk and efficient. This brought smiles to our faces because NU desperately needs him to step up as the #2 scoring option. JerShon Cobb made up for a rough first half by flashing his smooth midrange game and showing his savvy by getting hands in passing lanes. Reggie Hearn knocked down some big threes early on in the second half to knock LSU back on their heals including the shot that completely erased LSU's edge. And Sobo displayed his heady ball handling skills as well as a willingness (and ability) to knock down big shots as the game winds down. His three to put NU up by two scores with about 30 seconds to play was the dagger.
On the downside Marcotullio, Mirkovic, and Curletti all had games to forget. They need to come down with quick cases of amnesia since next up is Tulsa at 2:30pm Central tomorrow. We didn't see Tulsa's game, but the ESPN talking heads were quite impressed with their defense and the play of their soph center who reminded at least one analysts of Jerome Jordan (who had a large hand in Tulsa's NIT victory over NU three seasons ago). Tulsa is still coached by Izzo acolyte Doug Wojcik. Even with Wojcik's recent experience against NU, one day to prepare for NU's schemes is a tall order. FWIW, here is the Tulsa U installment in our "Better Know an Opponent" series for the March 2009 NIT game.
We couldn't find odds for the game. It looks like a draw from the Sagarin ratings, but Pomeroy had NU ranked 38 vs Tulsa's 78 prior to today's games. A win is doable and we believe would look pretty nice come March.
LSU had the speed advantage, but their young back court was flummoxed by the 1-3-1 which NU used nearly exclusively in the second half after going with primarily man-to-man defense in the first stanza. We didn't see a single ball fake or a single head fake that is key to making the 1-3-1 lose its integrity. Nor did we see LSU stationing a shooter in the unguarded corners so perhaps Trent Johnson really doesn't know how to attack the 1-3-1. Doubtful seeing that he was COTY for three different conferences during his career.
Anywho NU used the 1-3-1 to force copious amounts of turnovers that turned into easy NU points while at the same time transferred confidence from LSU's precocious freshmen stars to the likes of Drew Crawford, JerShon Cobb, Reggie Hearn, and Dave Sobolewski. Shurna was already playing lights out in the first half so he just kept on keeping on en route to setting his collegiate high water mark of 37 points.
Drew Crawford's game really impressed us. He was easily NU's best defensive presence out there, and his offense looked brisk and efficient. This brought smiles to our faces because NU desperately needs him to step up as the #2 scoring option. JerShon Cobb made up for a rough first half by flashing his smooth midrange game and showing his savvy by getting hands in passing lanes. Reggie Hearn knocked down some big threes early on in the second half to knock LSU back on their heals including the shot that completely erased LSU's edge. And Sobo displayed his heady ball handling skills as well as a willingness (and ability) to knock down big shots as the game winds down. His three to put NU up by two scores with about 30 seconds to play was the dagger.
On the downside Marcotullio, Mirkovic, and Curletti all had games to forget. They need to come down with quick cases of amnesia since next up is Tulsa at 2:30pm Central tomorrow. We didn't see Tulsa's game, but the ESPN talking heads were quite impressed with their defense and the play of their soph center who reminded at least one analysts of Jerome Jordan (who had a large hand in Tulsa's NIT victory over NU three seasons ago). Tulsa is still coached by Izzo acolyte Doug Wojcik. Even with Wojcik's recent experience against NU, one day to prepare for NU's schemes is a tall order. FWIW, here is the Tulsa U installment in our "Better Know an Opponent" series for the March 2009 NIT game.
We couldn't find odds for the game. It looks like a draw from the Sagarin ratings, but Pomeroy had NU ranked 38 vs Tulsa's 78 prior to today's games. A win is doable and we believe would look pretty nice come March.
LSU 41 NU 32 (H)
Shurna has come to play, but no one else really has. Shurna has half of NU's points and probably close to half the rebounds.
Crawford looks ok on defense but has yet to get in the flow offensively.
Our guards look pretty bad. Sobo is getting consistently beaten on the defensive end whether in half court or on fast break. He needs to box out.
Marcotullio doesn't look improved. Same lazy passes, same gambling defense.
Where is Demps? He is more fleet of foot than Sobo so he should be able to handle the defensive end better.
The good news is that is probably as bad as NU can look, and the deficit is just nine points. This game is winnable. Lineup for most of 2nd half should be Mirk, Shurna, Crawford, Cobb, and Demps. We need athleticism out there to tighten down the defense. The shots should start falling on offense as we were about as cold as can be not withstanding Shurna who is Steady Eddy.
Crawford looks ok on defense but has yet to get in the flow offensively.
Our guards look pretty bad. Sobo is getting consistently beaten on the defensive end whether in half court or on fast break. He needs to box out.
Marcotullio doesn't look improved. Same lazy passes, same gambling defense.
Where is Demps? He is more fleet of foot than Sobo so he should be able to handle the defensive end better.
The good news is that is probably as bad as NU can look, and the deficit is just nine points. This game is winnable. Lineup for most of 2nd half should be Mirk, Shurna, Crawford, Cobb, and Demps. We need athleticism out there to tighten down the defense. The shots should start falling on offense as we were about as cold as can be not withstanding Shurna who is Steady Eddy.
2010-11 Season Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda
Within hours NU will face its first meaningful test of the 2011-12 basketball season as the Wildcats are set to tipoff with the LSU Tigers at 2pm. Before our focus completely shifts to the season at hand, we came across a previously unnoticed Coach Carmody quote about last season on Fox Sport's Northwestern page.
"October to Nov. 15 to December to January to February to March, that's five months," Carmody said. "So much can happen. We were going to be a shoe-in [for the NCAA tournament] last year until Shurna got hurt. That's how I feel." (emphasis added)
Shurna got hurt against the Mount on December 23. We're glad to hear that our going on record just prior to the unfortunate injury jived with Coach Carmody's feel for the team's NCAAs prospects. We'd be curious to know his honest take on our NCAAs prospects this year come mid-December. It's clearly too early to say one way or the other as yet.
"October to Nov. 15 to December to January to February to March, that's five months," Carmody said. "So much can happen. We were going to be a shoe-in [for the NCAA tournament] last year until Shurna got hurt. That's how I feel." (emphasis added)
Shurna got hurt against the Mount on December 23. We're glad to hear that our going on record just prior to the unfortunate injury jived with Coach Carmody's feel for the team's NCAAs prospects. We'd be curious to know his honest take on our NCAAs prospects this year come mid-December. It's clearly too early to say one way or the other as yet.
15 November 2011
NCAAs Watch
Most teams have one or two games under their belts so it goes without saying that it's incredibly premature to forecast March Madness brackets. That doesn't stop intrepid bracketologists from filling out their brackets and putting their stakes in the ground. Of the 21 bracketologists to have gone on record ten have included NU in their brackets. This more or less jives with Sean Morris's 50% probability estimate and means that on the whole bracketologists think NU is good enough to be one of the "last four in."
For more detail check out the Bracket Project link on the right.
For more detail check out the Bracket Project link on the right.
14 November 2011
LSU Tigers -- quick snipet
The LSU Tigers are NU's first opponent down in Charleston SC. Countdown clock has been updated for the 2pm tipoff on Thursday. Tigers have a "diaper dandy" -- be very thankful DukieV will not be on the call.
They are coached by Trent Johnson whose name may be familiar to NU diehards as he coached a couple of Stanford teams that defeated the Wildcats. Those of you who are hoping NU sneaks up on the Tigers with the Princeton O are going to be sorely disappointed.
The Tigers have a decent name as an SEC team that has had some pretty stellar players (Shaq-daddy, Big Baby, Tyrus Thomas). However, LSU is not a world-beater at least under current collective pundit wisdom. In fact kenpom.com has them projected to lose a game at Coastal Carolina on Tuesday night. [UPDATE: LSU did in fact lose to the Coastal Carolinans] Oh that wily Trent Johnson..... getting his squad out to the Carolinas before the Charleston Classic to acclimate them to playing before unfriendly crowds in the dense sea air with palmetto scent wafting about. We tip our cap to you Coach Johnson, or should we call you Garry Kasparov?
They are coached by Trent Johnson whose name may be familiar to NU diehards as he coached a couple of Stanford teams that defeated the Wildcats. Those of you who are hoping NU sneaks up on the Tigers with the Princeton O are going to be sorely disappointed.
The Tigers have a decent name as an SEC team that has had some pretty stellar players (Shaq-daddy, Big Baby, Tyrus Thomas). However, LSU is not a world-beater at least under current collective pundit wisdom. In fact kenpom.com has them projected to lose a game at Coastal Carolina on Tuesday night. [UPDATE: LSU did in fact lose to the Coastal Carolinans] Oh that wily Trent Johnson..... getting his squad out to the Carolinas before the Charleston Classic to acclimate them to playing before unfriendly crowds in the dense sea air with palmetto scent wafting about. We tip our cap to you Coach Johnson, or should we call you Garry Kasparov?
What is a Bronc?
Just who are the UTPA Broncs? After three years you'd think that NU diehards would already know. Then again most of us still think of them as the Broncos. The Broncs are one of those 50-100 teams that only a procrastinating blogger whose team has crossed paths would know next to nothing about. Just in case you want to waste some of your braincells with useless knowledge.... the Broncs play in the six team Great West Conference which is in its third year of existence. The Great West Conference makes just about as much geographic sense as the current incarnation of the Big East. But, that's where the Big East comparisons begin and end. The Big East is regularly one of the power conferences in college basketball while the Great West, well, has ranked behind those unruly Independents in power ranking and are in close competition with the Southwestern Athletic Conference (no this is not the conference f/k/a SWC!) for worst conference in all the land. The best fun fact we could find here is that NU has played another Great Wester, Chicago St. Yes that fun fact is pretty lame.
We get that it is tough for NU to schedule non-conference opponents, but really? Three years in a row? After two years of nearly suffering the blackest of black eyes at their, errrrr, hooves? No disrespect to Bronc Head Coach Tom Schuberth who is a friend of the program and of Northwestern, but if we never ever again schedule the UTPAers we would be quite fine with that. Their unis are pretty snazzy, and they are well coached (per the esteemed Sean Morris), but they are Northwestern-squared, a team that is to be avoided at all costs by Northwestern-type teams. A loss to them is unthinkable even for teams desperate to fill schedules -- and they are well coached enough to make it happen to a sleep walking major.
It is tempting to compare this year's results to those in past years. Must.Resist.Foolish.Temptation. It is tempting to extrapolate player's performances in last night's game to season-long effort. Must.Not.Fall.For.Trap.
NU won the game 60-36. NU started both frosh guards and former walkon Reggie Hearn. Crawford and Marcotullio subbed in as they are recovering from ankle injuries. Cobb was a DNP as he recovers from offseason hip surgery. And that's all we have to say about that.
We get that it is tough for NU to schedule non-conference opponents, but really? Three years in a row? After two years of nearly suffering the blackest of black eyes at their, errrrr, hooves? No disrespect to Bronc Head Coach Tom Schuberth who is a friend of the program and of Northwestern, but if we never ever again schedule the UTPAers we would be quite fine with that. Their unis are pretty snazzy, and they are well coached (per the esteemed Sean Morris), but they are Northwestern-squared, a team that is to be avoided at all costs by Northwestern-type teams. A loss to them is unthinkable even for teams desperate to fill schedules -- and they are well coached enough to make it happen to a sleep walking major.
It is tempting to compare this year's results to those in past years. Must.Resist.Foolish.Temptation. It is tempting to extrapolate player's performances in last night's game to season-long effort. Must.Not.Fall.For.Trap.
NU won the game 60-36. NU started both frosh guards and former walkon Reggie Hearn. Crawford and Marcotullio subbed in as they are recovering from ankle injuries. Cobb was a DNP as he recovers from offseason hip surgery. And that's all we have to say about that.
02 November 2011
New (Old) Carmody Court Feature
Glance to your right. You may notice something new and different about this blog. Take a second and hone your observation skills. Why yes! A countdown clock has been added to this feature rich virtual soapbox. Some of you old timer Carmody Courters may recall that two seasons ago we integrated this clock into our game previews. Last season our schedules did not permit for regular previews so we did away with this feature.
We've added it back for this season because 1) we are as excited as ever about this season, and 2) our technical guru showed us how to add it to the blog outside of post entries. The presentation of the countdown clock is not perfect (seconds are hidden) -- this is yet another case of "you get what you pay for" as our geek squader wannabe is devoting his time "pro bono."
Now we're no Latin experts in these here parts (our time is too scare to devote effort to learning a dead language -- certain papal states not withstanding). Truth be told we prefer to spend our time becoming experts on Latinas. Anywho we've been given assurances that pro bono does not mean our tech ween friend flooded the DWTS box with votes for Chaz Bono. Not that there would be anything wrong with that...
The keenly observant may notice that the clock shows Robert Morris (IL) visiting "NWU" on the 7th. We made this "typo" to pay homage to the mind numbingly boring banter back and forth this week between Northwestern and Nebraska fans as to which school can use the "NU" shorthand. Shirley you can't be serious!
We've added it back for this season because 1) we are as excited as ever about this season, and 2) our technical guru showed us how to add it to the blog outside of post entries. The presentation of the countdown clock is not perfect (seconds are hidden) -- this is yet another case of "you get what you pay for" as our geek squader wannabe is devoting his time "pro bono."
Now we're no Latin experts in these here parts (our time is too scare to devote effort to learning a dead language -- certain papal states not withstanding). Truth be told we prefer to spend our time becoming experts on Latinas. Anywho we've been given assurances that pro bono does not mean our tech ween friend flooded the DWTS box with votes for Chaz Bono. Not that there would be anything wrong with that...
The keenly observant may notice that the clock shows Robert Morris (IL) visiting "NWU" on the 7th. We made this "typo" to pay homage to the mind numbingly boring banter back and forth this week between Northwestern and Nebraska fans as to which school can use the "NU" shorthand. Shirley you can't be serious!
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