CCC contends that NW is now a blue-collar scrappy team. Is this true or wishful thinking? We lean toward the latter but we honestly don't know right now.
Recall that the first three B1G games NW was by far and away the worst B1G team defensively. Then came the impressive defensive effort against the Illini which was followed up by another strong performance against the Payne-less Sparty. Could the light switch be turned on with such sudden and dramatic effect? Or is this simply a statistical blip that is as much a reflection of NW's opponents as it is of NW?
To be sure if anything will be made of this season it will be done on the defensive end. It is crystal clear that CCC hasn't a clue how to coach this roster into even a below-average offense. NW is performing at the lowest of lows on offense. CCC is appropriately focusing his coaching efforts on defense this year; if he could mix in some time on techniques to break presses and traps that would be nice because sooner or later teams are going to try to exploit this Achilles Heel.
We haven't dusted off our CCR analyses from prior years but we are certain that the ratios would show NW's defense has outperformed in the last two games and that the NW defense underperformed in the first three games. This suggests a switch may have been turned.
What gives us pause is how dramatic the change in defense has been. It's quite literally like night and day. It just doesn't seem realistic to expect that NW's defense has suddenly gone from the worst defense to one of the better defenses.
We are open minded about this and hope that the improved defense sticks so to speak. With a few more games of strong defensive performances it really would look like the corner has been turned on defense. And with that we would gladly eat our words from the writeup after the Illini game.
16 January 2014
GAMBLE Report 1.14
A visiting Payne-less Michigan State team still made for another painful night for NW. NW lost 40-54. FORTY POINTS. You have to go back to 2008 for a more futile offensive output (@Illinois, 37 points). Circle Feb 19 when NW visits Ohio State. Unless garbage time comes very early in that game we're thinking 35 points will be a stretch for NW's offense.
Last night's game wiped out any statistical gains NW made against IL. #170 NW is now at its low point of the season. So far. The defense actually played as one might expect a #37 ranked team would play. In fact NW's adjD rating remains unchanged. To be certain that nice defensive performance was aided by Michigan State playing without Adreian Payne and with a physically limited Branden Dawsen due to illness. Still to play like the #37 defense in a game is a good thing.
On the other hand the offense continues its rapid descent to the bottom of the rankings. This 40 point gem of a game dropped NW's adjO another 15 rungs to #313 in the land. NW has the worst offense of any major conference school. That's inexcusably bad.
The B1G GAMBLE Report is somewhat better because the offense can't do much worse than in prior reports while defensive statistics have improved. NW is now the 10th best defense in the B1G. The two rung improvement was aided by the Spartans shooting 2-16 from 3 point territory.
The offense continued to sputter. NW has an adjO figure of 83.6 within B1G conference games. Not even #351 Southern Utah's 84.1 adjO is THAT BAD. That means that over the past five games NW fans have had to watch THE WORST performing offense in the land.
Overall NW is #12 in the B1G and that has no chance of changing until next year.
Last night's game wiped out any statistical gains NW made against IL. #170 NW is now at its low point of the season. So far. The defense actually played as one might expect a #37 ranked team would play. In fact NW's adjD rating remains unchanged. To be certain that nice defensive performance was aided by Michigan State playing without Adreian Payne and with a physically limited Branden Dawsen due to illness. Still to play like the #37 defense in a game is a good thing.
On the other hand the offense continues its rapid descent to the bottom of the rankings. This 40 point gem of a game dropped NW's adjO another 15 rungs to #313 in the land. NW has the worst offense of any major conference school. That's inexcusably bad.
The B1G GAMBLE Report is somewhat better because the offense can't do much worse than in prior reports while defensive statistics have improved. NW is now the 10th best defense in the B1G. The two rung improvement was aided by the Spartans shooting 2-16 from 3 point territory.
The offense continued to sputter. NW has an adjO figure of 83.6 within B1G conference games. Not even #351 Southern Utah's 84.1 adjO is THAT BAD. That means that over the past five games NW fans have had to watch THE WORST performing offense in the land.
Overall NW is #12 in the B1G and that has no chance of changing until next year.
13 January 2014
GAMBLE Report 1.13
@NW 49 Illinois 43 - Recap
Shortly before the game it was announced that NW point guard and haper whipping boy Dave Sobolewski was out of the lineup with a concussion. Inexplicably it did not occur to Illini head coach and Powder stunt double John Groce to try to exploit NW’s exposed ball handling weakness through presses and traps.
This glaring mental gaffe was compounded by some horrid Illini shooting but even then the game was still there for the taking late in the second half. Give some credit to NW for the Illini’s offensive struggles. CCC had the wherewithal to pack the lane and challenge the brick laying Illini to knock down open three pointers. The Illini could not.
The game remained close because NW’s offense continued to struggle. It wasn’t until Tre Demps hit a trio of treys during a three minute spurt over the final third of the second half. This outburst changed the complexion of the game from a 34-34 tie at the seven minute mark to a nearly insurmountable 43-36 NW lead with less than 4 minutes to play.
Backed into a corner with time a strong NW ally Groce had no choice but to call for presses and traps. And you know what? NW crumbled under the pressure. The Illini turned NW over four times in less than a minute. FOUR TIMES! That’s #horribad.
It turned out to be too little too late for the Illini. Illinois did whittle down the NW lead from 9 points to 2 but could get no closer thanks to Drew Crawford knocking down two big free throws with 14 seconds to play.
Any win is a good win and we are glad that NW is not going to go winless in the B1G. But anyone who thinks this win is a sign that the team is turning a corner is going to be sorely disappointed.
GAMBLE Reports
Kenpom had given the Illini a 68% chance of winning last night with a predicted score of 58-61. With the NW upset win the GAMBLE Reports should be less a horror show. Sorta…..
Overall NW’s ranking improved 12 spots to 155 which is now only 23 behind the decimated 2013 squad. On offense things continue to get worse. NW dropped another 23 rungs to 298. There are now only 53 division one teams with a worse performing offense. Sickening.
As expected the defensive statistics are much improved. NW bounced back 31 rungs is now at its high water mark at 37th ranked defense in the land. Heady stuff but will it continue? The B1G GAMBLE Report does not paint a pretty picture…..
The Illinois game was only NW’s fourth B1G game. With that small sample size and a very good defensive game that allowed Illinois to score only 43 points one might think the AdjD would’ve improved from 12th. Nope. NW's defense in the first three games was really THAT bad. As noted the AdjD figure is still worse than NW’s 2013 B1G effort.
NW also remains dead last in overall Pomeroy rating and AdjO of course. CCC did manage to break his basement deadlock with CBC in defensive eFG percentage so there is that.
Next up:
Sparty comes to E-town on Wednesday. Kenpom gives NW a 15% chance of winning which sounds way too optimistic even if Payne does not play. Kenpom needs to check for a glitch in his prediction machine. There is not a snowball's chance in hell that NW will score 57 points against Michigan State. NW will be lucky to score 50.
Shortly before the game it was announced that NW point guard and haper whipping boy Dave Sobolewski was out of the lineup with a concussion. Inexplicably it did not occur to Illini head coach and Powder stunt double John Groce to try to exploit NW’s exposed ball handling weakness through presses and traps.
This glaring mental gaffe was compounded by some horrid Illini shooting but even then the game was still there for the taking late in the second half. Give some credit to NW for the Illini’s offensive struggles. CCC had the wherewithal to pack the lane and challenge the brick laying Illini to knock down open three pointers. The Illini could not.
The game remained close because NW’s offense continued to struggle. It wasn’t until Tre Demps hit a trio of treys during a three minute spurt over the final third of the second half. This outburst changed the complexion of the game from a 34-34 tie at the seven minute mark to a nearly insurmountable 43-36 NW lead with less than 4 minutes to play.
Backed into a corner with time a strong NW ally Groce had no choice but to call for presses and traps. And you know what? NW crumbled under the pressure. The Illini turned NW over four times in less than a minute. FOUR TIMES! That’s #horribad.
It turned out to be too little too late for the Illini. Illinois did whittle down the NW lead from 9 points to 2 but could get no closer thanks to Drew Crawford knocking down two big free throws with 14 seconds to play.
Any win is a good win and we are glad that NW is not going to go winless in the B1G. But anyone who thinks this win is a sign that the team is turning a corner is going to be sorely disappointed.
GAMBLE Reports
Kenpom had given the Illini a 68% chance of winning last night with a predicted score of 58-61. With the NW upset win the GAMBLE Reports should be less a horror show. Sorta…..
Overall NW’s ranking improved 12 spots to 155 which is now only 23 behind the decimated 2013 squad. On offense things continue to get worse. NW dropped another 23 rungs to 298. There are now only 53 division one teams with a worse performing offense. Sickening.
As expected the defensive statistics are much improved. NW bounced back 31 rungs is now at its high water mark at 37th ranked defense in the land. Heady stuff but will it continue? The B1G GAMBLE Report does not paint a pretty picture…..
The Illinois game was only NW’s fourth B1G game. With that small sample size and a very good defensive game that allowed Illinois to score only 43 points one might think the AdjD would’ve improved from 12th. Nope. NW's defense in the first three games was really THAT bad. As noted the AdjD figure is still worse than NW’s 2013 B1G effort.
NW also remains dead last in overall Pomeroy rating and AdjO of course. CCC did manage to break his basement deadlock with CBC in defensive eFG percentage so there is that.
Next up:
Sparty comes to E-town on Wednesday. Kenpom gives NW a 15% chance of winning which sounds way too optimistic even if Payne does not play. Kenpom needs to check for a glitch in his prediction machine. There is not a snowball's chance in hell that NW will score 57 points against Michigan State. NW will be lucky to score 50.
10 January 2014
GAMBLE Report 1.12 (new and improved)
Three BIG games under NW’s belt. Three 20+ point blowout losses. At least CCC is consistent?
Kenpom predicted NW (7-9, 0-3) would lose 59-76 at Iowa City. That was too optimistic. NW lost 67-93. At some point kenpom and the gamblers are bound to catch onto
what we already know. That is for the time being
one must disregard any semblance of improvement gained during the CBC
Era. We’re right back to where NW basketball
left off when CBC was hired. The painful reality is that NW really is
THAT bad.
We tweeted during the game that it was as if we were
watching a slow motion train wreck. During
a restless night of sleep disturbed by depressing thoughts of beloved NW
basketball we came up with a better analogy: the rising tide of a gentle body
of water with its gentle waves relentlessly pushing NW backwards with minimal resistance. #NUEra
While the game was another basketball equivalent of a two hour root
canal sans pain killers NW managed to score more than kenpom had projected. With that in mind we had
expected that the AdjO figure would improve.
It did not.
The AdjO slipped another 9 spots to 275th “best” offense in the land. The “good news” is that the free fall will have to stop at some point. There is only so much lower NW can go on offense with only about 75 more rungs to fall. C’mon CCC!!!! Can’t you at least apply the brakes enough to gently asymptote our way to the bottom? Please we beg of you. Hasn’t this vomit-inducing free fall gone on long enough? #NUEra
For completeness we feel compelled to point out that the
AdjD slipped only 4 spots despite
giving up 90+ points. #NUEra!!!!
But overall the team dropped 12 spots to #167. That is over 100 spots below the average
rankings during the NIT years and 35 below even last year. #NUEra
That reminds us. Can anyone recommend a good thesaurus? We’re going to run out of synonyms for awful
before long!
B1G GAMBLE Report
For some time we’ve been planning to augment our GAMBLE
Reports with a secondary comparison of performances in B1G games only. It’s early yet but so what?
As you will see the results are so appallingly bad that it’s noteworthy even with its statistical
shortcomings.
We have entitled this secondary analysis the “B1G GAMBLE
Report” for two reasons. One is that we
think titles ought to be descriptively accurate. Check.
Secondly the “Big” part of the title is apt because the stakes increase in
conference play and this is when the light is shining most brightly on how big the gamble has been made on the inexperienced
CCC who must match wits and rosters with peers who are among the best of best.
For this analysis we compare kenpom’s ranking of NW relative
to its B1G peers using the results from conference games only.
This distinction means that the scale of comparison is quite different
than for the larger samples size used in the GAMBLE Reports. For the
BIG Gamble Report the maximum ranking is 12 (i.e., the number of teams in the
B1G) while for the GAMBLE Report it is 351.
As an aside we can’t wait ‘til next year when NW will become
the first team to finish 14th in the Big Ten. NW is good at digging its way to new ground. But we digress. So without further ado behold the debut of
the B1G GAMBLE Report!!!!!
The first thing to notice is that NW is dead last in the B1G
in both AdjO and AdjD. If it holds up CCC will have "achieved" a new low that is worse than even the highly forgettable 2007 and 2008 seasons. #NUEra
The hapers will no doubt be quick to point out that being dead last is nothing new for NW. Why even CBC and his ballyhooed offense was the worst offensive rebounding team in the B1G during 2013. And on defense we all know how terrible NW was under CBC. It comes as no surprise NW was the worst overall defensive team in B1G play last year and was dead last in eFG% and defensive rebounding too. No wonder we needed a #NUEra!
That’s all true enough. What's also true is that within these categories CCC has fared just as poorly as CBC did in his injury plagued 2013 season. #NUEra?
To split the hairs we noted the nominal comparison of these
statistical categories where CCC had nowhere to go but up but has so far failed to do so. In each case CCC’s 2014 team has
underperformed even last year’s hamstrung team.
#NUEra
Things are so bad this year that we won't even bother with comparisons to the NIT Years. It's simply a waste of time since it's a foregone conclusion that this team is going to fare very poorly when compared to CBC's best squads.
08 January 2014
Why are Northwestern fans counting their chickens before they hatch?
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
- The Life of Reason, George Santayana
Much has been made of CCC's first recruiting class. CCC's Fab Five (the "C3F5") is headlined by Vic Law. Each of the other recruits has an accolades-laden ("accoladen"?) resume of his own to varying degrees. And how about those youtube videos!!!!! Athleticism galore.
Of this we are certain. This class of five comprise players who better conform to CCC's desired basketball skill sets than CBC's Princeton Offense oriented roster. That makes this recruiting class a positive step towards Northwestern basketball's future. Beyond that there's not much to go on other than hype hope and "hape" [hape: short hand for hate for princeton offense].
The merry three Hs of rhyme have Northwestern fans intoxicated with dreams of future glory. "This is why dr jim hired CCC" some explain. "This is the best class EVER!!!" others rejoice. A few have even callously suggested that "CCC should clean house and get more of these young wunderkinds". Yada yada yada.
Of course anyone who is a fan of Northwestern will be cheering for the C3F5 and hope the hype is realized. That includes us at Carmody Court. Welcome to our fair school and God speed gentlemen!
Here's a thought. Maybe just maybe it would be a good idea to keep these expectations in check. Have the giddy forgotten that this is Northwestern basketball? Hope springs eternal but #NUEra is just a catchy slogan that despite CBC's short-circuited heavy lifting isn't somehow detached from the program's moribund history.
The other day McDonald's released their list of 2014 All American nominees. Vic Law is on there. So is Gavin Skelly! See? More proof that Northwestern has never had this kind of talent infusion before!
Correction. It has. Over the past five years CBC either signed or had oral commitments from 12 guys to play basketball at Northwestern. It will shock the hapers that 5 of these guys were McDonald's AA nominees. Crawford. Marcotullio. Cobb. Abrahamson. Sina.
If you do the math 5 divided by 12 is slightly more than 40%. 40% just so happens to be equal to 2 divided by 5 or the percent of C3F5 who were nominated.
Marcotullio? Abrahamson? Yes. They were nominated yet somehow three of C3F5 were not.
In other words let's not count our chickens before they hatch.
06 January 2014
GAMBLE Report 1.11
Northwestern (7-8, 0-2) traveled to Ann Arbor for a Sunday morning game against a McGary-less Wolverine squad (10-4, 2-0). NW kept it within double digits for a half before Michigan gradually pulled away to a 23 point win in front of a bored Crisler Arena crowd. Welp.
Statistically speaking the game was not as boring. For the CCC-led 2014 NW team continues to sink to new lows. This time the wildcats stunk up the joint so completely that kenpom shows that each of the four factors worsened. Not just on offense which was as abysmal as ever. Defense too. The wheels are starting to come off.
Overall NW is now ranked #155. That is 12 steps in the wrong direction and now 23 spots worse than 2013. AdjO dropped back 5 rungs to a mind numbing #266 ranked offense. The AdjD slipped 4 more rungs. That friends is #horribad.
The outlook for the season gets grimmer by the game. That one point home victory predicted over Purdue? It's now a home loss. NW is still predicted to eek out 1 point home victories over Penn State and Nebraska, but even that is bound to changeif when NU can't hang within 20 at Iowa City on Thursday night.
In his Tale of Two Cities Charles Dickens used snow to symbolize peace hope and joy. Snow abounds in E-town but all we can feel right now is numbness from the miserable icebox-like temperatures.
It's going to be a VERY trying couple of years which will require all of us sorry NW fanatics to muster every last ounce of patience. We know now that CCC is incapable of coaching players who do not conform to his offense. The hope is that he will be able to recruit well enough that he can coach up a winning B1G team. A couple of McDonalds AAs would help turn our frown upside down because all we can see right now is an inexperienced coach who will need to recruit better athletes than your average B1G team to get the job done. That is a very tall order with all of the institutional deficiencies dragging CCC's ship.
Statistically speaking the game was not as boring. For the CCC-led 2014 NW team continues to sink to new lows. This time the wildcats stunk up the joint so completely that kenpom shows that each of the four factors worsened. Not just on offense which was as abysmal as ever. Defense too. The wheels are starting to come off.
Overall NW is now ranked #155. That is 12 steps in the wrong direction and now 23 spots worse than 2013. AdjO dropped back 5 rungs to a mind numbing #266 ranked offense. The AdjD slipped 4 more rungs. That friends is #horribad.
The outlook for the season gets grimmer by the game. That one point home victory predicted over Purdue? It's now a home loss. NW is still predicted to eek out 1 point home victories over Penn State and Nebraska, but even that is bound to change
In his Tale of Two Cities Charles Dickens used snow to symbolize peace hope and joy. Snow abounds in E-town but all we can feel right now is numbness from the miserable icebox-like temperatures.
It's going to be a VERY trying couple of years which will require all of us sorry NW fanatics to muster every last ounce of patience. We know now that CCC is incapable of coaching players who do not conform to his offense. The hope is that he will be able to recruit well enough that he can coach up a winning B1G team. A couple of McDonalds AAs would help turn our frown upside down because all we can see right now is an inexperienced coach who will need to recruit better athletes than your average B1G team to get the job done. That is a very tall order with all of the institutional deficiencies dragging CCC's ship.
03 January 2014
Will Northwestern win another game this year?
After last night's 76-49 home drubbing at the hands of Wisconsin many are now wondering whether NW will win another game this year? It's a valid question. Here's what kenpom has to say about it.
The sum of the individual game win probabilities on kenpom has NW at 4 B1G wins. On an individual game basis NW is predicted to win 3 games. Each of these 3 wins are predicted to be one point home victories.
Away games? Fuggedaboudit. Closest predicted game on the road is a 7 point loss at Nebraska.
With 18 more B1G games to go including the B1G Tourney chances are that the stars will align for a night or two this long and cold winter up in Evanston. We'd like to think Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb have too much talent and pride to let this team go winless.
Be that as it may those predicting a winless B1G season do so from solid ground.
The sum of the individual game win probabilities on kenpom has NW at 4 B1G wins. On an individual game basis NW is predicted to win 3 games. Each of these 3 wins are predicted to be one point home victories.
Away games? Fuggedaboudit. Closest predicted game on the road is a 7 point loss at Nebraska.
With 18 more B1G games to go including the B1G Tourney chances are that the stars will align for a night or two this long and cold winter up in Evanston. We'd like to think Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb have too much talent and pride to let this team go winless.
Be that as it may those predicting a winless B1G season do so from solid ground.
GAMBLE Report 1.10
NW (7-7, 0-1) trailed Wisconsin (14-0,0-1) 14-40 at halftime in snowy Evanston yesterday evening. The biggest question of the night was whether or not NW would crack the 40 point mark. They did thanks to the heroic efforts of one Alex Olah (23 points). Yeah!
kenpom predicted NW to lose by just 7 points. kenpom ain't infallible and has had a tough time getting a bead on Wisconsin for whatever reason. We knew better. As does kenpom now.......
This was an across the board epic fail of a game. An already moribund offense slipped 9 spots further back to #261 in the nation while the defense took an even bigger 14 steps back to #60. As a team NW dropped 18 spots to #143 and is now 11 spots behind 2013. CCC is now officially negligent.
What we see out there is not a Northwestern product. That is why until further notice we will be abbreviating beloved Alma Mater not as NU but with the layman's NW. Don't like it? Tough. Besides Northwestern is in desperate need of a W. Any W.
kenpom predicted NW to lose by just 7 points. kenpom ain't infallible and has had a tough time getting a bead on Wisconsin for whatever reason. We knew better. As does kenpom now.......
This was an across the board epic fail of a game. An already moribund offense slipped 9 spots further back to #261 in the nation while the defense took an even bigger 14 steps back to #60. As a team NW dropped 18 spots to #143 and is now 11 spots behind 2013. CCC is now officially negligent.
What we see out there is not a Northwestern product. That is why until further notice we will be abbreviating beloved Alma Mater not as NU but with the layman's NW. Don't like it? Tough. Besides Northwestern is in desperate need of a W. Any W.
02 January 2014
NU Under CCC - A Very Preliminary Look Into The Crystal Ball
Before the season began we wrote that no one really knew how NU would look and play under CCC. Now that we have 13 games on the books some early trends have emerged. Here's how we see it:
Offense
Gone is the structured and precision passing Princeton Offense. Under CCC there is a new emphasis placed on driving the ball in the hope of dishing to open shooters beyond the arc. The result? More free throw attempts and turnovers. More free throw attempts are a good thing but they have come at an enormous turnovers cost.
Turnovers are offense killers. This is evident in GR 1.09 wherein despite an improvement in the other three factors relative to 2012-13 an 82 spot drop in TO% has led to a 101 drop in the rankings for the offense. CBC understood the importance of holding onto the pumpkin. His teams were perennially among the best in the land in TO% which translated into very strong offense.
Our crystal ball sees an offense that will continue to draw more fouls. It also predicts an improvement in TO% once the roster is filled out with CCC's recruits. How much lower this statistic will go is unclear and will be something for fans to key on as an indicator for future optimism/pessimism.
eFG% is way down with CCC at the helm. Our crystal ball forecasts this to be a temporary phenomenon that will improve substantially with increased familiarity with the offense and once again with improved fit once CCC's recruits in place. We have serious doubts that CCC's recruiting will be strong enough to improve eFG% to the lofty #35 plateau during CBC's NIT years. We do project that NU will occasionally be in the top 50.
OR% is relatively unchanged -- CCC and CBC both understood the risk/reward of crashing the oboards was not worth it with this roster. If for no other reason than our OR% is abysmal we expect this statistic to improve with the increased athleticism of CCC's recruits which will free up some guys to crash the boards with more impunity.
In sum there is good reason to believe that this year will be the offensive trough for the CCC years. How much the offense improves will depend on its ability to protect the ball. This is largely dependent on CCC's recruiting. It goes without saying that CCC is/will recruit to his offense, but the question is whether he will be able to get recruiting classes superior to those of NU's conference brethren. Stay tuned.
Defense
Whereas the new offense has been painful to watch the defense has been a pleasant improvement. NU's defense is currently ranked in the Top 50 which is better than any season ending ranking for a CBC-led squad. Underlying the massive defensive improvement have been huge improvements in defensive rebounding and eFG%. Much of the credit goes to CCC for this improvement although it is worth noting that some of the improvement should be credited to the improved roster. Many forget that NU's defense last year was also vastly improved with a new emphasis on man defense until injuries torpedoed the campaign.
Regardless of how much credit goes to CCC or the roster our crystal ball sees that rebounding and eFG% will continue to be much improved under CCC since the improved athleticism of his recruits can only help. Another lesser noted aspect of CCC's defense is the emphasis on perimeter defense. This hallmark of Duke defense has carried over to NU and we expect this beneficial trend of vigorously defending the arc to continue.
The blemishes against CCC's defense have been a dearth of opponent turnovers and its increased propensity to foul. These changes are both natural outcomes of CCC's emphasis on fundamental defense relative to CBC's higher risk/reward 1-3-1 defense. The crystal ball says that both of these statistics will improve with the increased athleticism of CCC's recruits.
Although the B1G campaign may bring NU back to earth on defense we do anticipate a continued improvement on defense under CCC. The key to further improvement in the defense in future will be the ability of NU defenders to force turnovers.
B1G Season
The above analysis is comparative in nature with an eye toward trends and projections to the future. We fully acknowledge that the nominal rankings stand to worsen with the onslaught of 19+ games against teams in the nation's best conference. We expect that voices of concern about the offense will only grow louder in the coming months and the accolades for the defense will become more reserved and less frequent.
Offense
Gone is the structured and precision passing Princeton Offense. Under CCC there is a new emphasis placed on driving the ball in the hope of dishing to open shooters beyond the arc. The result? More free throw attempts and turnovers. More free throw attempts are a good thing but they have come at an enormous turnovers cost.
Turnovers are offense killers. This is evident in GR 1.09 wherein despite an improvement in the other three factors relative to 2012-13 an 82 spot drop in TO% has led to a 101 drop in the rankings for the offense. CBC understood the importance of holding onto the pumpkin. His teams were perennially among the best in the land in TO% which translated into very strong offense.
Our crystal ball sees an offense that will continue to draw more fouls. It also predicts an improvement in TO% once the roster is filled out with CCC's recruits. How much lower this statistic will go is unclear and will be something for fans to key on as an indicator for future optimism/pessimism.
eFG% is way down with CCC at the helm. Our crystal ball forecasts this to be a temporary phenomenon that will improve substantially with increased familiarity with the offense and once again with improved fit once CCC's recruits in place. We have serious doubts that CCC's recruiting will be strong enough to improve eFG% to the lofty #35 plateau during CBC's NIT years. We do project that NU will occasionally be in the top 50.
OR% is relatively unchanged -- CCC and CBC both understood the risk/reward of crashing the oboards was not worth it with this roster. If for no other reason than our OR% is abysmal we expect this statistic to improve with the increased athleticism of CCC's recruits which will free up some guys to crash the boards with more impunity.
In sum there is good reason to believe that this year will be the offensive trough for the CCC years. How much the offense improves will depend on its ability to protect the ball. This is largely dependent on CCC's recruiting. It goes without saying that CCC is/will recruit to his offense, but the question is whether he will be able to get recruiting classes superior to those of NU's conference brethren. Stay tuned.
Defense
Whereas the new offense has been painful to watch the defense has been a pleasant improvement. NU's defense is currently ranked in the Top 50 which is better than any season ending ranking for a CBC-led squad. Underlying the massive defensive improvement have been huge improvements in defensive rebounding and eFG%. Much of the credit goes to CCC for this improvement although it is worth noting that some of the improvement should be credited to the improved roster. Many forget that NU's defense last year was also vastly improved with a new emphasis on man defense until injuries torpedoed the campaign.
Regardless of how much credit goes to CCC or the roster our crystal ball sees that rebounding and eFG% will continue to be much improved under CCC since the improved athleticism of his recruits can only help. Another lesser noted aspect of CCC's defense is the emphasis on perimeter defense. This hallmark of Duke defense has carried over to NU and we expect this beneficial trend of vigorously defending the arc to continue.
The blemishes against CCC's defense have been a dearth of opponent turnovers and its increased propensity to foul. These changes are both natural outcomes of CCC's emphasis on fundamental defense relative to CBC's higher risk/reward 1-3-1 defense. The crystal ball says that both of these statistics will improve with the increased athleticism of CCC's recruits.
Although the B1G campaign may bring NU back to earth on defense we do anticipate a continued improvement on defense under CCC. The key to further improvement in the defense in future will be the ability of NU defenders to force turnovers.
B1G Season
The above analysis is comparative in nature with an eye toward trends and projections to the future. We fully acknowledge that the nominal rankings stand to worsen with the onslaught of 19+ games against teams in the nation's best conference. We expect that voices of concern about the offense will only grow louder in the coming months and the accolades for the defense will become more reserved and less frequent.
31 December 2013
Is this a bad shooting team?
Our GAMBLE Reports have highlighted just how bad NU’s offense has become under CCC. Part of the offense’s struggle is perfectly understandable with the coaching transition. As the weeks go on and the offense goes further in reverse some blame ought to be placed on CCC. That this year’s offense is 100 rungs below last year’s decimated team suggests CCC’s offensive coaching is bordering on negligence.
Proponents of the coaching change have been quick to throw CBC
and his recruits under the bus in an attempt to insulate CCC from criticism. This agenda to lower expectations and shift blame
to CBC -- even with NU players as collateral damage -- comes as no surprise.
Noticeably absent in this shameless tactic are facts. Carmody Court is here to put meat on that
bone.
One common excuse given for CCC’s poor offense is that this “bad shooting team” is unable to take advantage of open shots. On its face this claim is hard to wrap one’s
head around since CBC recruited shooters. Did NU players suddenly
forget to shoot? To dig into the merits of this assertion we began
with a review of the individual player statistics.
Individual Player Analysis
There are six players on the roster for whom a kenpom
comparison can be developed: Crawford, Sobolewski, Cobb, Demps, Olah, and Abrahamson. To reduce the effect of injuries we used the
2012 season for Crawford’s baseline and 2011 for Cobb. Below is a summary of the changes in a few key offensive statistics from the baseline year to this season.
The cleanest and simplest measurement for comparing shooting
is FT%. Free throws are a constant and
independent of offense. Four of these
six players are shooting free throws BETTER this year (all but Demps and Abrahamson).
The next cleanest measurement for shooting comparison is 3P%.
It’s not as clean as a free throw
analysis but like free throws the 3P distance is more or less constant and is a shot practiced with regularity. Four of the six players are
shooting BETTER from beyond the arc (Crawford, Sobolewski).
Finally we compared ORtgs.
Although it isn’t directly relevant to the bad shooting team
assertion it is on point for NU’s offensive woes. Once again four are playing better on offense
(Crawford, Sobolewski)
Note that three players from 2013 (Hearn, Swopshire,
Marcotullio) not included in the above analysis shot about 35% from three. The two players from 2014 (Taphorn, Lumpkin) not
included in the analysis also are shooting about 35%. A wash in other words.
So an examination of the individual statistics does not
support excuse that this is poor shooting team. Maybe looking at the forest
would?
Team analysis
As a team NU is shooting 71.3% from the charity stripe which is good for #119 in the land. Top third doesn't sound so bad to us.
Last year NU shot
67.9% which was ranked #220. In addition
this year’s 71.3% is better than the 69% shot in two of the NIT years, a hair
below the 71.4% shot in 2010 and 1.7% below the 2011 team. We don’t think folks in their right minds – or
even the CBC haters – would claim the NIT teams were bad at shooting.
For 3P% this year’s team is shooting 33%. This is below average (#195 ranked), a smidge
below last year’s 34% clip and well below the NIT years when NU shot between
35.7% and 38.6% as a team. This team statistic
does give some legs to the argument that this team is bad at shooting.
But…… when one takes out Sobolewski from this
year’s statistics the team is shooting 37% from three which is within the NIT
years range. That is not scorching the
nets good but is also much better than one would expect from a bad shooting
team.
Dave Sobolewski
When we first dove into this analysis we were coming up
scratching our heads trying to explain why this offense is so bad. Individually most players are improved in
shooting percentages and rating. As a
team the shooting percentages don’t look so bad either especially when one
accounts for Sobolewski’s abysmal 3P%. And
it was with this last thought is when the light went off. The problem is Sobolewski. That’s unfair to Sobolewski – more accurately
the problem is Sobolewski in CCC’s offense.
Sobolewski’s struggles this year are not a revelation. Fans and even the press have started to dig
into this storyline. Per kenpom his ORtg
is down from a mediocre 97.9 in 2013 to a very poor 81.1. The dropoff is due to the drop in 3P%, a much higher turnover
rate and a lower assists rate.
Sobolewski has been the biggest loser from the coaching
transition. Why? Because he is being
asked to do things he simply can’t do well such as breaking down a defense on
the dribble drive and creating for others.
This bears out not only in his increased turnovers but in a much higher
free throw rate. Remarkably his assist
rate has dwindled even with these marching orders from CCC.
At this point we think Sobolewski needs to see a sports shrink if NU’s offense is going to recover this
year. One alternative hope is that Demps
could pick up some more of the slack, but NU recruiting two PGs for next fall
doesn’t sound like Demps is what CCC is looking for in his PG either.
CCC’s Role
Sobolewski’s struggles this year is a cause for concern when it comes to CCC’s ability to lead NU to the NCAAs and
beyond. Not so much because one player
is really struggling but rather that CCC hasn’t demonstrated he can amend his
offense to fit the personnel. It’s
evident the offense is broken and some of the blame for that is CCC’s inability
to take better advantage of what he’s got on hand. What happens in the future if for whatever reason CCC does not have an active roster that adequately fits his offense???????
A good coach molds his offense to his personnel. Instead of continuing with this losing
proposition of Sobolewski dribble driving his way into turnovers -- and to a
lesser extent Cobb -- why not try to run an offense that takes
advantage of the players’ strengths?
30 December 2013
GAMBLE Report 1.09
NU (7-6) played its final two non conference games since we published GR 1.08.
NU 58 Brown 52
Depaul 57 NU 56
kenpom predicted NU would win both games. A split of these games is not good and does not bode well for the looming B1G slate.
Both games were expected to be tight affairs but not quite the defensive battles (to put a kind spin on it) that materialized. The end result is a lower kenpom overall rating (down 9 spots to 125 and now just 7 above the 2013 season), a much improved AdjD (up 38 spots to an impressive 46 which is better than CBC's best defensive team -- 56 in 2005), but a woeful 252 AdjO (101 rungs below even the hamstrung 2013 team and much worse than CBC's worst offensive team -- 196 in 2005).
Next up is the B1G opener at home against Wisconsin. NU is predicted to lose 63-56 with just an 18% chance of winning. Far be it from us to question the wisdom of kenpom"dom" but we give NU a snowball's chance in hell of staying within double digits much less an 18% chance of winning this game.
kenpom even predicts NU will win 5 games in the B1G although only three games are actually predicted to be wins (three home squeakers against Purdue, Penn State, and Nebraska). If that happens we may have to rename this blog "Collins Court". More likely however is an NU squad that fails to win double digit games on the season and sadly finishes ranked below the personnel-beleaguered 2013 squad.
NU 58 Brown 52
Depaul 57 NU 56
kenpom predicted NU would win both games. A split of these games is not good and does not bode well for the looming B1G slate.
Both games were expected to be tight affairs but not quite the defensive battles (to put a kind spin on it) that materialized. The end result is a lower kenpom overall rating (down 9 spots to 125 and now just 7 above the 2013 season), a much improved AdjD (up 38 spots to an impressive 46 which is better than CBC's best defensive team -- 56 in 2005), but a woeful 252 AdjO (101 rungs below even the hamstrung 2013 team and much worse than CBC's worst offensive team -- 196 in 2005).
Next up is the B1G opener at home against Wisconsin. NU is predicted to lose 63-56 with just an 18% chance of winning. Far be it from us to question the wisdom of kenpom"dom" but we give NU a snowball's chance in hell of staying within double digits much less an 18% chance of winning this game.
kenpom even predicts NU will win 5 games in the B1G although only three games are actually predicted to be wins (three home squeakers against Purdue, Penn State, and Nebraska). If that happens we may have to rename this blog "Collins Court". More likely however is an NU squad that fails to win double digit games on the season and sadly finishes ranked below the personnel-beleaguered 2013 squad.
17 December 2013
GAMBLE Report 1.08
NU 86 Mississippi Valley State 64 (F)
On the surface it sounds like a good win. Not true. It wasn't a bad win. It was just a non-event statistically speaking. Essentially went as predicted by kenpom.
The offense looked a tad better and the defense a wee bit worse. And one could split hairs to say that NU did better than expected without JerShon Cobb who was out with a mild ankle sprain. Meh. The kenpom overall rating needle was unchanged. That is hard to do and in and of itself noteworthy.
Next up: Brown. NU is predicted to win 69-64. We don't have a good feeling about this one.
On the surface it sounds like a good win. Not true. It wasn't a bad win. It was just a non-event statistically speaking. Essentially went as predicted by kenpom.
The offense looked a tad better and the defense a wee bit worse. And one could split hairs to say that NU did better than expected without JerShon Cobb who was out with a mild ankle sprain. Meh. The kenpom overall rating needle was unchanged. That is hard to do and in and of itself noteworthy.
Next up: Brown. NU is predicted to win 69-64. We don't have a good feeling about this one.
11 December 2013
Nightmarish thought
Perhaps induced by the coach k locker room appearance we had a terrible thought. What if NU players start slapping the floor on defense? All joking aside if that were to happen we might need to find another favorite team. Please Lord don't let this happen.
08 December 2013
GAMBLE Report 1.07
NU 51 W Mich 35
A game right out of the 50s but with a three point arc. Not that the three point arc figured much into the game.
But a win is a win is a win is a win is a win.
The kenpom figures are improved overall though it should come as no surprise that the offense figures dropped and the defense figures improved. CCC compares favorably to the 2013 train wreck. For now.
The win is the good news. The bad news was:
ARGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That's fingernails on chalkboard disturbing. All we need to do is surround dr jim with Laettner Hurley and Wojo to send us to the funny farm!
A game right out of the 50s but with a three point arc. Not that the three point arc figured much into the game.
But a win is a win is a win is a win is a win.
The kenpom figures are improved overall though it should come as no surprise that the offense figures dropped and the defense figures improved. CCC compares favorably to the 2013 train wreck. For now.
The win is the good news. The bad news was:
ARGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That's fingernails on chalkboard disturbing. All we need to do is surround dr jim with Laettner Hurley and Wojo to send us to the funny farm!
05 December 2013
GAMBLE Report 1.06
NCSU 69 NU 48
It was ugly as the score suggests. In fact so ugly that we feel compelled to start comparing this train wreck of a season to another train wreck season: 2013. Behold the new and improved GAMBLE Report!
The comparison to the NIT years is getting outright pathetic. #144 NU is now ranked 78 rungs lower than during the NIT years. The #157 offense is a woeful 132 spots worse, and the #147 defense is only 24 better. So much for the hopeful notion that improved defense would offset diminished offense.
Now the 2013-14 seasons and 2012-13 seasons are train wrecks for completely different reasons. Last year it was extraordinary personnel losses. This year it's CCC's inability to make effective use of a roster geared toward the Princeton Offense. The former was unavoidable but the latter was. Thanks again dr jim. Can we stand up and pull up our pants now?
This season is quickly shaping up to be similar or even worse than last season. That's right. CCC has a full complement of CBC's players** and his team is looking like it might compare unfavorably to last year's team that had just 7 scholarship players by the time it had to travel to Columbus on Valentines Day.
Hard to believe? Look at that last line of GR 1.06. Incredibly NU is currently ranked 12 spots worse than last year. Not only was CBC able to squeeze out more offensive production from his severely depleted lineup but the real shocker is that he coaxed them into slightly better defense to boot. Wow.
** Mike Turner and Jaren Sina may beg to differ.
04 December 2013
Paging dr jim
We just wanted to quickly say thanks. Thanks for focking us NU basketball fans over for this season and likely next season. We haven't had reason to forget about the team since our buddy Kevin O'Neill roamed the sidelines. We need the break after that exhilarating football season. Can't have too much fun being an NU fan now can we? Thanks again doc for thinking of our well being.
CCC has the built in excuse that he doesn't have the players for his system. That is true. Doesn't make it go down any easier especially knowing that CBC would've had NU at worst 8-1 right now and not 4-5 and with no hope. Yeppers! The dr Jim gamble is really starting to hit home now. Tune back in two years to see how it looks to be panning out.
We do appreciate the laugh from that basketball savant LTP. Check out this gem of a quote: "It’s also been flat out unfair to Coach Collins to have Drew Crawford’s injuries hampering the roster against tough competition." Seriously? Two missed games for one player and it's poor CCC. Yet last year three players were gone for entire conference season including Drew and a fourth was lost halfway through conference--and what did BC get? Sorry coach you had your chance already. That's the way the cookie crumbles. Thanks for the laugh oh wise one.
CCC has the built in excuse that he doesn't have the players for his system. That is true. Doesn't make it go down any easier especially knowing that CBC would've had NU at worst 8-1 right now and not 4-5 and with no hope. Yeppers! The dr Jim gamble is really starting to hit home now. Tune back in two years to see how it looks to be panning out.
We do appreciate the laugh from that basketball savant LTP. Check out this gem of a quote: "It’s also been flat out unfair to Coach Collins to have Drew Crawford’s injuries hampering the roster against tough competition." Seriously? Two missed games for one player and it's poor CCC. Yet last year three players were gone for entire conference season including Drew and a fourth was lost halfway through conference--and what did BC get? Sorry coach you had your chance already. That's the way the cookie crumbles. Thanks for the laugh oh wise one.
GAMBLE Report 1.05
NU has gone 1-2 since our last GAMBLE Report with a home win against Gardner Webb and two losses in Las Vegas to Mizzou and UCLA. Not surprising that those three games took their toll in GAMBLE Report 1.05.
Overall NU's 121 ranking is at its lowest point for the season ... 55 spots behind CBC and only 11 slots improved over last year's injury-marred season. This is bad.
The 118th ranked offense actually inched to a new high water mark though still 93 spots behind CBC. Propelling the offense forward has been better shooting (eFG%) and getting to the line more often. The biggest problem with the offense continues to be turnovers. The hope is that these will be cut down with time as players get used to driving and dishing. We can already see Sobo doing a better job of getting into the lane under control.
The defense is ranked 140 which is easily the low mark for the season and is now just 31 spots better than CBC's much maligned defensive effort. All four factors contributed to the 40 spot drop since GR 1.04 but eFG% was the key contributing factor: it dropped an eye popping 92 spots. This eFG% is still 79 spots ahead of what teams shot against CBC's teams, but this gain is offset by a dramatic drop in forced turnovers that the 1-3-1 generated as well as more fouls committed by CCC's base man defense. Rebounding continues to be much improved as to be expected from better rebounding positioning created by man defense.
Tonight NU travels to Raleigh to battle NC State. Seeeeaaaaaacaaaaaaaaattttttttt!
Overall NU's 121 ranking is at its lowest point for the season ... 55 spots behind CBC and only 11 slots improved over last year's injury-marred season. This is bad.
The 118th ranked offense actually inched to a new high water mark though still 93 spots behind CBC. Propelling the offense forward has been better shooting (eFG%) and getting to the line more often. The biggest problem with the offense continues to be turnovers. The hope is that these will be cut down with time as players get used to driving and dishing. We can already see Sobo doing a better job of getting into the lane under control.
The defense is ranked 140 which is easily the low mark for the season and is now just 31 spots better than CBC's much maligned defensive effort. All four factors contributed to the 40 spot drop since GR 1.04 but eFG% was the key contributing factor: it dropped an eye popping 92 spots. This eFG% is still 79 spots ahead of what teams shot against CBC's teams, but this gain is offset by a dramatic drop in forced turnovers that the 1-3-1 generated as well as more fouls committed by CCC's base man defense. Rebounding continues to be much improved as to be expected from better rebounding positioning created by man defense.
Tonight NU travels to Raleigh to battle NC State. Seeeeaaaaaacaaaaaaaaattttttttt!
23 November 2013
GAMBLE Report 1.04
NU trailed the IUPUI by 11 points midway through the second half but rallied to a 63-61 win. The game changed when 3-2 NU went to a 2-3 zone. Who is IUPUI? Does it matter? They were ranked 296/351 by kenpom.com prior to the game. Their heady play at the Welsh boosted them to 278.
Sanjay Lumpkin was our player of the game. His stats were not that impressive but that was because foul trouble limited him to 26 minutes.
Enough of that recap. Let's get to it:
GAMBLE Report suffered from the IUPUI nailbiter. NU's overall ranking dropped to a season-low #113. Both offense and defense efficiencies dropped with defense now at its season-low ranking. Offense continues its general trend of better protecting the ball. Free throw rate dropped which combined with poor shooting explains why this game was so close. NU's defense continues to improve its adjustment to the new foul rules, and the defensive rebounding continued to improve (see Lumpkin).
Sanjay Lumpkin was our player of the game. His stats were not that impressive but that was because foul trouble limited him to 26 minutes.
Enough of that recap. Let's get to it:
21 November 2013
GAMBLE Report 1.03
NU stomped UIC at the UIC Pavilion last night to the tune of 93-58. While this year's improved defensive effort continued with NU holding the Flames to 0.84 points per possession, the story of the game was the offense finally coming to life. NU had 5 players score in double digits and more impressively 6 players whose offensive ratings were over 120 with the team overall scoring 1.35 PPP!
GAMBLE Report 1.03 notes:
1. Overall ranking improved by 23 with NU up to #87. However this is still 21 spots worse than our CBC baseline.
2. Offense ranking improved by 45 and now lags the baseline by 95 spots.
3. Principal reason offense improved was an incredible 115 spot jump in eFG% (still trails baseline by 32).
4. OR% and FTR also notably improved with FTR well ahead of the baseline (178 spots).
5. Defense ranking continues to be stable and is improved over baseline by 93 spots. The longer this stability keeps up the more reasonable it will be to set commensurate defensive expectations for this team.
6. Defense eFG% continued improving (up 46 spots and now 199(!) spots improved over baseline)
7. Defense FTR continued to improve marginally (up 19 spots and 109 baseline). This could be a sign the team is adapting to man defense and new foul rules instituted by NCAA this year.
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