We'll see everyone play in the Robert Morris Exhibition on Nov 4. I'm projecting an experience-laden starting five, at least for most of the non-conference schedule, and a nine deep rotation.
Here are my WAGs for projected starting lineup for first game against No Ill:
Mirkovic
Shurna
Coble
Nash
Thompson
Bench:
Ryan
Crawford
Peljusic
Curletti
The early non-conference season represents a significant opportunity for Peljusic, Curletti, and possibly even Capocci to turn some heads with some minutes up for grabs while Rowley heals.
Expect Coble and Juice to be on the court 35+ minutes in contested games. Shurna and Mirkovic are sounding like 30 minute players while Nash may be around 25 minutes. That leaves only about 45 minutes for the bench. Ryan and Crawford should split up most of the 20 minutes at the guard positions with Marcotullio coming in as a situational substitute. Curletti, Peljusic, and Ryan should eat up the 25 minutes of front court time while Rowley heals. Expect Curletti and Peljusic's minutes to dwindle if/when Rowley returns.
20 October 2009
19 October 2009
On the frosh
My first glimpses of the frosh look promising and meet expectations based on recruiting hype.
Marcotullio is supposed to be the long range bomber to replace Craig Moore. Well, he looks the part. Time will tell if he can do it in game situations, especially when it matters, but his form looks sweet.
As much as I hate to say it, one notorious poster's wild predictions based on HS hype appears to be on target for Drew Crawford. OK, who am I kidding. Carmody Court has been secretly hoping that Drew Crawford really is THE GUY. The guy who will lead NU to unprecedented heights (with the help of Coble, Juice, et al. this year). At first blush, Crawford looks to be the type of athlete NU has longed for all these many years. The guy looks silky smooth, ripped, and has some serious ups. One can only hope he can pick up the offense quickly (Carmody sounds optimistic) and his defense comes along (his athleticism should help).
Man o man has NU's recruiting taken a turn for the better. I can't wait to see what Carmody can do with some horses. Look out Big Ten.
Marcotullio is supposed to be the long range bomber to replace Craig Moore. Well, he looks the part. Time will tell if he can do it in game situations, especially when it matters, but his form looks sweet.
As much as I hate to say it, one notorious poster's wild predictions based on HS hype appears to be on target for Drew Crawford. OK, who am I kidding. Carmody Court has been secretly hoping that Drew Crawford really is THE GUY. The guy who will lead NU to unprecedented heights (with the help of Coble, Juice, et al. this year). At first blush, Crawford looks to be the type of athlete NU has longed for all these many years. The guy looks silky smooth, ripped, and has some serious ups. One can only hope he can pick up the offense quickly (Carmody sounds optimistic) and his defense comes along (his athleticism should help).
Man o man has NU's recruiting taken a turn for the better. I can't wait to see what Carmody can do with some horses. Look out Big Ten.
Coach Carmody's First Media Monday of 09-10 Season
Coach Carmody has some optimistic things to say about the coming season, the most optimistic that we've heard from him since he arrived in Evanston. Much of it is music to Carmody Court's ears...
1. Coble sounds stronger and has more range. Sounds like a first team Big Ten player to me.
2. Juice sounds confident, improved, and ready to take over team leadership after Craig Moore's departure for Hollandia.
3. Mirkovic has bulked up and looks smooth.
4. Shurna is improved and confident with his U19 gold medal in his back pocket.
5. The frosh should contribute and provide depth in the guard position behind Nash and Ryan.
That sounds like 4/5 solid positions with a slew of choices for the 2G spot depending on situational need (Nash-defense, Ryan-offensive flow, Crawford-slasher, Marcotullio-bomber).
It's not just what Carmody said that caught my eye but also what he did not say. Notably, there was no mention of Capocci, Fruendt, or Curletti. Carmody Court tends to take the cup half-full take on this team so I think this says more about the players Carmody mentioned than those he did not.
Carmody did give some mention to Rowley who broke a bone in his foot this summer and has been wearing a protective boot until very recently. Carmody has been taking it cautiously with Rowley so far. It sounds like he may play this season, though i wonder just how much and whether it might make sense to redshirt him to allow his foot to fully heal and for him to develop. Sure, NU could use Rowley this year as his size is something that the other centers don't possess, and Carmody is most likely to do whatever it takes to get over the NCAAs hump. Still, I'm not convinced that Rowley will be needed to make the NCAAs this year.
1. Coble sounds stronger and has more range. Sounds like a first team Big Ten player to me.
2. Juice sounds confident, improved, and ready to take over team leadership after Craig Moore's departure for Hollandia.
3. Mirkovic has bulked up and looks smooth.
4. Shurna is improved and confident with his U19 gold medal in his back pocket.
5. The frosh should contribute and provide depth in the guard position behind Nash and Ryan.
That sounds like 4/5 solid positions with a slew of choices for the 2G spot depending on situational need (Nash-defense, Ryan-offensive flow, Crawford-slasher, Marcotullio-bomber).
It's not just what Carmody said that caught my eye but also what he did not say. Notably, there was no mention of Capocci, Fruendt, or Curletti. Carmody Court tends to take the cup half-full take on this team so I think this says more about the players Carmody mentioned than those he did not.
Carmody did give some mention to Rowley who broke a bone in his foot this summer and has been wearing a protective boot until very recently. Carmody has been taking it cautiously with Rowley so far. It sounds like he may play this season, though i wonder just how much and whether it might make sense to redshirt him to allow his foot to fully heal and for him to develop. Sure, NU could use Rowley this year as his size is something that the other centers don't possess, and Carmody is most likely to do whatever it takes to get over the NCAAs hump. Still, I'm not convinced that Rowley will be needed to make the NCAAs this year.
24 September 2009
305
This is almost too obvious fodder for some photoshopping guru. Too bad I'm not up to snuff in that dept unlike some folks...
23 September 2009
Recruiting buzz on the interwebs
In the confluence of JerShon Cobb's signing last week and the beginning of fall practice, the perennial autumnal renewal of optimism has reached new heights for NU men's basketball. Yes, Carmody Court has been joined by a legion of voices declaring THIS IS THE YEAR that NU makes the BIG DANCE!
There is plenty of time to get into all that once we get to see how the team actually looks this non-conference season. Instead, I'd like to stoke the recruiting buzz that has the interwebs aflame.
Per Rivals, NU has offers out to SEVEN top 50 prospects in the Class of 2011 and NINE total prospects (all of which are in the top 150). How many NU lands is subject to debate, but this is a quantum leap in NU's recruiting profile. Here is a recap of NU's recruiting targets by position (overall national rank):
Centers
Marshall Plumlee (41)
Nnana Egwu (48)
Forwards
Julian Royal* (30)
Keaton Miles (43)
Rod Days (115)
Henry Brooks (129)
Guards
Shannon Scott* (12)
Dai-Jon Parker* (17)
Chasson Randle (45)
Frankly, I am a bit stunned by this list. How many of the top 50 could even get past NU admissions? I doubt it's many more than 7, though I admittedly haven't researched it. Be that as it may, I am so used to seeing baby steps or two steps forward and one step back that this gigantic shift is shocking. I am reminded of Gary Barnett's analogy of the breakout Rose Bowl year where he wrote in his book (and I paraphrase from foggy memories) that he had been priming the pump for some time and all of a sudden the water just came gushing out that fateful fall of 1995. Perhaps that is what is happening with NU men's basketball recruiting.
* denotes a "Georgia Peach"
There is plenty of time to get into all that once we get to see how the team actually looks this non-conference season. Instead, I'd like to stoke the recruiting buzz that has the interwebs aflame.
Per Rivals, NU has offers out to SEVEN top 50 prospects in the Class of 2011 and NINE total prospects (all of which are in the top 150). How many NU lands is subject to debate, but this is a quantum leap in NU's recruiting profile. Here is a recap of NU's recruiting targets by position (overall national rank):
Centers
Marshall Plumlee (41)
Nnana Egwu (48)
Forwards
Julian Royal* (30)
Keaton Miles (43)
Rod Days (115)
Henry Brooks (129)
Guards
Shannon Scott* (12)
Dai-Jon Parker* (17)
Chasson Randle (45)
Frankly, I am a bit stunned by this list. How many of the top 50 could even get past NU admissions? I doubt it's many more than 7, though I admittedly haven't researched it. Be that as it may, I am so used to seeing baby steps or two steps forward and one step back that this gigantic shift is shocking. I am reminded of Gary Barnett's analogy of the breakout Rose Bowl year where he wrote in his book (and I paraphrase from foggy memories) that he had been priming the pump for some time and all of a sudden the water just came gushing out that fateful fall of 1995. Perhaps that is what is happening with NU men's basketball recruiting.
* denotes a "Georgia Peach"
21 September 2009
NU lands Cobb, reaps benefits of program stability
Jershon Cobb, a Class of 2010 Rivals Top 100 recruit from Atlanta Georgia, orally committed to Northwestern over the weekend. This is a HUGE get for a variety of reasons.
1. NU has three slots to fill for the 2010 class (though some think NU will bank one or possibly two of those scholarships given the impressive list of recruits expressing interest in NU from the 2011 class. More on that below), and the natives were starting to get restless. This should placate even the most hardened Carmody critic.
2. Cobb is the highest ranked recruit landed by Carmody (and Hardy -- Tavaras is a monster on the recruiting trail!) in his nine-plus years at NU. Recruiting trajectory continues to point upward and has never looked more promising.
3. And, last but certainly not least, Cobb could be NU's hook to landing the "Georgia Peaches", three very highly regarded Class of 2011 prospects from Atlanta who play AAU ball together. Could a package deal be in the offing?
I have to believe that Bill Carmody is officially off the hot seat, much to the chagrin of some. Pretty much everyone is in agreement that Bill Carmody can coach the X's and O's. The knock on him was that he couldn't recruit. Well, that issue is pretty much dead.
To me, the bigger picture of inking Cobb (and last year's significant class of Shurna, Mirkovic, Rowley, Fruendt, and Curletti) is that NU is finally harvesting the fruits from investing in the Carmody tree. Frankly, it would have been easy for NU to have gone a different course a few years back. It would have been easy to justify canning Bill Carmody after the drop-off in 2006-07, Carmody's seventh year at the helm. Coaches are typically given four to five years to establish themselves.
Of course, there is nothing typical about NU's incomparable history of futility (only major conference program to never make NCAAs, etc...). Fortunately, we had a good AD (Mark Murphy) and president (Henry Bienen) at the time who not only could appreciate Carmody's worth as a coach but also the shackles he had from 70 some odd years of program futility.
Onward and upward, NU.
1. NU has three slots to fill for the 2010 class (though some think NU will bank one or possibly two of those scholarships given the impressive list of recruits expressing interest in NU from the 2011 class. More on that below), and the natives were starting to get restless. This should placate even the most hardened Carmody critic.
2. Cobb is the highest ranked recruit landed by Carmody (and Hardy -- Tavaras is a monster on the recruiting trail!) in his nine-plus years at NU. Recruiting trajectory continues to point upward and has never looked more promising.
3. And, last but certainly not least, Cobb could be NU's hook to landing the "Georgia Peaches", three very highly regarded Class of 2011 prospects from Atlanta who play AAU ball together. Could a package deal be in the offing?
I have to believe that Bill Carmody is officially off the hot seat, much to the chagrin of some. Pretty much everyone is in agreement that Bill Carmody can coach the X's and O's. The knock on him was that he couldn't recruit. Well, that issue is pretty much dead.
To me, the bigger picture of inking Cobb (and last year's significant class of Shurna, Mirkovic, Rowley, Fruendt, and Curletti) is that NU is finally harvesting the fruits from investing in the Carmody tree. Frankly, it would have been easy for NU to have gone a different course a few years back. It would have been easy to justify canning Bill Carmody after the drop-off in 2006-07, Carmody's seventh year at the helm. Coaches are typically given four to five years to establish themselves.
Of course, there is nothing typical about NU's incomparable history of futility (only major conference program to never make NCAAs, etc...). Fortunately, we had a good AD (Mark Murphy) and president (Henry Bienen) at the time who not only could appreciate Carmody's worth as a coach but also the shackles he had from 70 some odd years of program futility.
Onward and upward, NU.
16 September 2009
Hopes of landing Gasser further diminish
Two Wisconsin guards have been dropped from the men's bball program which increases the odds that Bo Ryan will offer Josh Gasser a full ride. MOTHER F@#$ER!
I know the old adage that you don't worry about the ones you miss but rather the ones you land, but PG was a real position of need for the Class of 2010.
Who knows? Maybe it will all work out even if Gasser goes to Wisconsin or elsewhere. More opportunity for the well regarded crew from Georgia who have been reported to show interest in NU.
I know the old adage that you don't worry about the ones you miss but rather the ones you land, but PG was a real position of need for the Class of 2010.
Who knows? Maybe it will all work out even if Gasser goes to Wisconsin or elsewhere. More opportunity for the well regarded crew from Georgia who have been reported to show interest in NU.
14 September 2009
There's a new sheriff over at Purple Reign
and he seems on the (basket)ball. It's great to see that site rejuvenate after Coach Roy made the mistake of moving from Rivals and then letting his hard work slowly slip away. Plus, it's great for long-neglected NU basketball fans as LouV has been forced to respond to defend his rear flank with his own flurry of basketball-related activity.
Kudos to you WildcatAbbey. Attaboy!
Kudos to you WildcatAbbey. Attaboy!
Drew Crawford is #1
Incoming frosh has chosen #1 as his uniform number. Let's hope the kid can back up the bravado on the court. I'm thinking he will.
2009-10 Schedule Released
The Road to NU's First NCAAs Has Been Revealed. Rejoice.
2009-10 NORTHWESTERN MEN'S BASKETBALL SCHEDULE
Date Opponent / Event Location Time
11/04/09 vs. Robert Morris (Ill.) -- Exhib. Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
11/13/09 vs. Northern Illinois Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
11/18/09 vs. Butler Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
11/22/09 vs. Tennessee State Evanston, Ill. 1:00 p.m. CT
11/24/09 vs. Liberty Evanston, Ill. 5:30 p.m. CT
11/27/09 vs. Notre Dame Chicago, Ill. (UIC Pavilion) 7:30 p.m. CT
11/28/09 Iowa State or Saint Louis Chicago, Ill. (UIC Pavilion) TBA
12/01/09 at North Carolina State Raleigh, N.C. 6:00 p.m. CT
12/13/09 vs. North Carolina A&T Evanston, Ill. 4:00 p.m. CT
12/16/09 vs. North Florida Evanston, Ill. 8:00 p.m. CT
12/19/09 vs. Stanford Evanston, Ill. 1:00 p.m. CT
12/22/09 vs. Central Connecticut State Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
12/30/09 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill. 8:00 p.m. CT
01/02/10 vs. Michigan State * Evanston, Ill. 5:30 p.m. CT
01/07/10 vs. Texas-Pan American Evanston, Ill. 6:00 p.m. CT
01/10/10 at Michigan * Ann Arbor, Mich. 1:00 p.m. CT
01/13/10 vs. Wisconsin * Evanston, Ill. 7:30 p.m. CT
01/16/10 vs. Purdue * Evanston, Ill. 4:30 p.m. CT
01/19/10 at Ohio State * Columbus, Ohio 6:00 p.m. CT
01/23/10 vs. Illinois * Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
01/26/10 at Minnesota * Minneapolis, Minn. 8:00 p.m. CT
01/30/10 at Michigan State * East Lansing, Mich. 6:00 p.m. CT
02/02/10 vs. Michigan * Evanston, Ill. 6:00 p.m. CT
02/07/10 vs. Indiana * Evanston, Ill. 1:30 p.m. CT
02/10/10 at Iowa * Iowa City, Iowa 7:30 p.m. CT
02/14/10 vs. Minnesota * Evanston, Ill. 4:00 p.m. CT
02/17/10 vs. Penn State * Evanston, Ill. 7:30 p.m. CT
02/21/10 at Wisconsin * Madison, Wis. 1:00 p.m. CT
02/25/10 vs. Iowa * Evanston, Ill. 6:00 p.m. CT
02/28/10 at Penn State * University Park, Pa. 11:00 a.m. CT
03/03/10 vs. Chicago State Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
03/06/10 at Indiana * Bloomington, Ind. 11:00 a.m. CT
2009-10 NORTHWESTERN MEN'S BASKETBALL SCHEDULE
Date Opponent / Event Location Time
11/04/09 vs. Robert Morris (Ill.) -- Exhib. Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
11/13/09 vs. Northern Illinois Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
11/18/09 vs. Butler Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
11/22/09 vs. Tennessee State Evanston, Ill. 1:00 p.m. CT
11/24/09 vs. Liberty Evanston, Ill. 5:30 p.m. CT
11/27/09 vs. Notre Dame Chicago, Ill. (UIC Pavilion) 7:30 p.m. CT
11/28/09 Iowa State or Saint Louis Chicago, Ill. (UIC Pavilion) TBA
12/01/09 at North Carolina State Raleigh, N.C. 6:00 p.m. CT
12/13/09 vs. North Carolina A&T Evanston, Ill. 4:00 p.m. CT
12/16/09 vs. North Florida Evanston, Ill. 8:00 p.m. CT
12/19/09 vs. Stanford Evanston, Ill. 1:00 p.m. CT
12/22/09 vs. Central Connecticut State Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
12/30/09 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill. 8:00 p.m. CT
01/02/10 vs. Michigan State * Evanston, Ill. 5:30 p.m. CT
01/07/10 vs. Texas-Pan American Evanston, Ill. 6:00 p.m. CT
01/10/10 at Michigan * Ann Arbor, Mich. 1:00 p.m. CT
01/13/10 vs. Wisconsin * Evanston, Ill. 7:30 p.m. CT
01/16/10 vs. Purdue * Evanston, Ill. 4:30 p.m. CT
01/19/10 at Ohio State * Columbus, Ohio 6:00 p.m. CT
01/23/10 vs. Illinois * Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
01/26/10 at Minnesota * Minneapolis, Minn. 8:00 p.m. CT
01/30/10 at Michigan State * East Lansing, Mich. 6:00 p.m. CT
02/02/10 vs. Michigan * Evanston, Ill. 6:00 p.m. CT
02/07/10 vs. Indiana * Evanston, Ill. 1:30 p.m. CT
02/10/10 at Iowa * Iowa City, Iowa 7:30 p.m. CT
02/14/10 vs. Minnesota * Evanston, Ill. 4:00 p.m. CT
02/17/10 vs. Penn State * Evanston, Ill. 7:30 p.m. CT
02/21/10 at Wisconsin * Madison, Wis. 1:00 p.m. CT
02/25/10 vs. Iowa * Evanston, Ill. 6:00 p.m. CT
02/28/10 at Penn State * University Park, Pa. 11:00 a.m. CT
03/03/10 vs. Chicago State Evanston, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT
03/06/10 at Indiana * Bloomington, Ind. 11:00 a.m. CT
10 August 2009
OT: Welcome NU football frosh
The long summer dry spell for NU fanatics came to an end this weekend as NU frosh reported for duty this past weekend. Welcome into the fold, boys. Make us proud!
30 July 2009
My kingdom for a PG
NU has as much quality depth as I can remember and for years to come. Except at the PG position. Juice Thompson is going to be the only true PG on the squad this fall. As such PG is NU's most pressing need on the recruiting front. It is very important that NU lands a good PG in the 2010 recruiting class. That would give the NU frosh some time to acclimate under Juice's wing during his senior year.
The most visible NU target is Josh Gasser, a PG from Wisconsin whom NU got "in on" early but has yet to pull the trigger on NU's offer. The scuttlebutt is that Gasser would like to play for a Big Ten team and preferably for a team that will vie for the conference championship and play in the NCAAs. Those latter two points are probably the best explanation for why Gasser hasn't committed to NU.
My best guess is that Gasser is holding out hope for a Wisconsin offer. Although I'm sure Gasser wouldn't mind offers from MSU, Illinois, or Purdue. Heck, perhaps currently downtrodden Indiana would be attractive as IU will no doubt rise like the phoenix in a matter of years under Crean.
Based on scouting reports Gasser would be a good fit for NU and would most likely get a ton of playing of time starting his sophomore year. NU faithful believe that NU is on the cusp of the NCAAs, but Gasser may not either believe this or may require proof.
With recent offers from Maryland and Arizona State I'm guessing more programs will take notice of Gasser. Plus, I suspect the reason Wisconsin never offered Gasser is because they had their eyes set on another prospect by the name of Vander Blue who had committed but has since reneged. This is not good news for NU.
The most visible NU target is Josh Gasser, a PG from Wisconsin whom NU got "in on" early but has yet to pull the trigger on NU's offer. The scuttlebutt is that Gasser would like to play for a Big Ten team and preferably for a team that will vie for the conference championship and play in the NCAAs. Those latter two points are probably the best explanation for why Gasser hasn't committed to NU.
My best guess is that Gasser is holding out hope for a Wisconsin offer. Although I'm sure Gasser wouldn't mind offers from MSU, Illinois, or Purdue. Heck, perhaps currently downtrodden Indiana would be attractive as IU will no doubt rise like the phoenix in a matter of years under Crean.
Based on scouting reports Gasser would be a good fit for NU and would most likely get a ton of playing of time starting his sophomore year. NU faithful believe that NU is on the cusp of the NCAAs, but Gasser may not either believe this or may require proof.
With recent offers from Maryland and Arizona State I'm guessing more programs will take notice of Gasser. Plus, I suspect the reason Wisconsin never offered Gasser is because they had their eyes set on another prospect by the name of Vander Blue who had committed but has since reneged. This is not good news for NU.
05 April 2009
Paging D Coleman. Paging J Thompson
Care to revisit your excitement over this year's Big East? No doubt that the Big East was the deepest and most talented conference this year. The Best Ever? Nahhh. That is unless the Big East can somehow lay claim to Sparty and Izzo's bunch.
Michigan State continued its march with another shockingly easy victory down the stretch over UConn. That makes two Big East bad boys knocked out by MSU. Not bad. Not bad at all.
MSU now takes on UNC, which defeated Villanova --the last of the Big East titans, in the title game. MSU got waxed by UNC at Ford Field back in December as part of the ACC-B10 challenge. Has there ever been a rematch like this in tournament history? Doubtful. Regardless, much has changed since then -- most importantly Sparty's health. UNC is the favorite as they are stocked with NBA talent (again). I think UNC will win as talent has a way of winning out in the biggest of games. Win or lose, Sparty can be proud of its run.
PS: In a move that is sure to surprise many followers of college basketball, Seth Davis picked Carolina to win. Maybe Sparty has a chance after all!
Michigan State continued its march with another shockingly easy victory down the stretch over UConn. That makes two Big East bad boys knocked out by MSU. Not bad. Not bad at all.
MSU now takes on UNC, which defeated Villanova --the last of the Big East titans, in the title game. MSU got waxed by UNC at Ford Field back in December as part of the ACC-B10 challenge. Has there ever been a rematch like this in tournament history? Doubtful. Regardless, much has changed since then -- most importantly Sparty's health. UNC is the favorite as they are stocked with NBA talent (again). I think UNC will win as talent has a way of winning out in the biggest of games. Win or lose, Sparty can be proud of its run.
PS: In a move that is sure to surprise many followers of college basketball, Seth Davis picked Carolina to win. Maybe Sparty has a chance after all!
29 March 2009
Final Four 2009
Let the buildup to Saturday begin. Michigan St and Carolina joined UConn and Nova in the Final Four as the NCAA Tourney peeled off another layer to its cube root. Carolina was expected to win and did so handily. The story of the day belonged to Sparty which upset Louisville with surprising ease down the stretch , and for now put on ice the coronation of this year's Big East as the best conference in college basketball history.
Michigan St has everything going for it at this point. They have nothing to lose as they were not expected to get past Louisville, the Beast of the East. Plus, they get to play in Detroit which they can easily drive so long as they remember to hold their noses at the Ann Arbor exit off I-94. MSU's opponent on Saturday will be UConn which has a bit of history on their side -- this year fits with UConn's five-year pattern in which it rides a #1 seed in the Phoenix Regional to a national championship. Logic says this history should be meaningless to a completely different UConn squad, but athletes are notoriously superstitious so this historical anecdote can't be entirely dismissed.
In the other game, Nova takes on Carolina. Carolina came into the season as the unanimous pick for NCAA champion with unabashed talk of an unblemished record. Carolina has not performed up to those lofty expectations but are where they need to be now. Still, the pressure is clearly on Carolina as they are now the highest remaining seed (Louisville and Pitt were higher seeds), and they are now at the stage where they lost last year. Plus, they have to overcome Nova which is looking like a team of destiny.
Like UConn, Nova can point to history to gain an unneeded boost to confidence. Back in 1985, the Big East's previous pinnacle, an underdog Villanova squad overcame all odds and toppled more highly regarded Big East foes on its way to a national title. Villanova has already toppled Pitt in what was easily the best game of this tournament. Though MSU's victory over Louisville threw into doubt whether another Big East team would stand in Nova's way in the finals, UConn very well could be this year's Georgetown and Hasheem Thabeet playing the role of Patrick Ewing (sans grey undershirt).
Oh, and Northwestern can now claim not only that it beat a Final Four team, but that it was able to do it in East Lansing -- something none of the rest of the Final Four will be able to claim.
Michigan St has everything going for it at this point. They have nothing to lose as they were not expected to get past Louisville, the Beast of the East. Plus, they get to play in Detroit which they can easily drive so long as they remember to hold their noses at the Ann Arbor exit off I-94. MSU's opponent on Saturday will be UConn which has a bit of history on their side -- this year fits with UConn's five-year pattern in which it rides a #1 seed in the Phoenix Regional to a national championship. Logic says this history should be meaningless to a completely different UConn squad, but athletes are notoriously superstitious so this historical anecdote can't be entirely dismissed.
In the other game, Nova takes on Carolina. Carolina came into the season as the unanimous pick for NCAA champion with unabashed talk of an unblemished record. Carolina has not performed up to those lofty expectations but are where they need to be now. Still, the pressure is clearly on Carolina as they are now the highest remaining seed (Louisville and Pitt were higher seeds), and they are now at the stage where they lost last year. Plus, they have to overcome Nova which is looking like a team of destiny.
Like UConn, Nova can point to history to gain an unneeded boost to confidence. Back in 1985, the Big East's previous pinnacle, an underdog Villanova squad overcame all odds and toppled more highly regarded Big East foes on its way to a national title. Villanova has already toppled Pitt in what was easily the best game of this tournament. Though MSU's victory over Louisville threw into doubt whether another Big East team would stand in Nova's way in the finals, UConn very well could be this year's Georgetown and Hasheem Thabeet playing the role of Patrick Ewing (sans grey undershirt).
Oh, and Northwestern can now claim not only that it beat a Final Four team, but that it was able to do it in East Lansing -- something none of the rest of the Final Four will be able to claim.
27 March 2009
Elite Eight is Set
We are now at the square root of the original tourney field (after play-in game), and this tourney continues to go largely as expected. The Big East has lived up to its lofty billing, the Big XII has exceeded expectations, the Big Ten has acquitted itself and set the stage for next year, the Pac 10 went about as expected. In short, all the major conferences have performed about as expected except for the ACC which has been exposed as a fraud (Duke, which bowed out after the S16, is the latest ACC team to come up short of expectations).
Elite 8 by conference:
Big East (4) -- 1 Pitt, 1 Louisville, 1 UConn, 3 Nova
Big XII (2) -- 2 Oklahoma, 3 Mizzou
Big Ten (1) -- 2 Michigan St
ACC (1) -- 1 Carolina
Looking forward, will all the 1 seeds advance? I say not. Most likely candidate for falling short? All are vulnerable, but I think UConn is most vulnerable -- especially with the recruiting violations distractions swirling about.
Elite 8 by conference:
Big East (4) -- 1 Pitt, 1 Louisville, 1 UConn, 3 Nova
Big XII (2) -- 2 Oklahoma, 3 Mizzou
Big Ten (1) -- 2 Michigan St
ACC (1) -- 1 Carolina
Looking forward, will all the 1 seeds advance? I say not. Most likely candidate for falling short? All are vulnerable, but I think UConn is most vulnerable -- especially with the recruiting violations distractions swirling about.
26 March 2009
Down to 12
Memphis is out (Calipari's lack of coaching skill once again trumped his recruiting prowess) after losing to surprising Mizzou, Xavier nearly pulled out the upset over Pitt, UConn pulled away from undersized Purdue, and Nova blasted Duke (always brings a smile to my face to see the Vitales get waxed).
The ACC continues to disappoint (somehow Vegas still has UNC as the favorite to win despite this revelation and Lawson's injury????), the Big East continues its Tour de Force, and the Big XII has proven that it had more to offer than Oklahoma and Blake Griffin.
Big Ten fans are down to pulling for MSU. They can pull it out tomorrow night, but at some point Sparty's defensive deficiencies will doom their run.
The ACC continues to disappoint (somehow Vegas still has UNC as the favorite to win despite this revelation and Lawson's injury????), the Big East continues its Tour de Force, and the Big XII has proven that it had more to offer than Oklahoma and Blake Griffin.
Big Ten fans are down to pulling for MSU. They can pull it out tomorrow night, but at some point Sparty's defensive deficiencies will doom their run.
22 March 2009
NCAAs Round 2 Analysis
We're down to the Sweet 16, and it looks like this year is shaping up much like last year with the "power conferences" dominating. The two remaining dance crashers are Gonzaga and Xavier, two 4 seeds that have been ranked most of the year and were seeded to make it this far. Ho hum.
Why have the last couple of years gone more or less according to plan? Why hasn't a George Mason come out of the woodwork to captivate the college basketball nation? I am of the opinion that this is just part of the randomness of college basketball and athletics more generally (some sports are more random than others, but that is neither here nor there). What we have seen the past couple of years are simply a couple of observations in which things went according to plan. I don't think there is any trend here, and the chances of next year going "mad" is just as likely as it was this year, last year, or in all the years since the rules for the entry into the NBA changed (one of the key exogenous variables that I think does affect NCAA teams differently -- there are others but this is the biggest recent shock to the system -- the economy may be another if things continue to go down the crapper).
I will say that I find the results disappointing since it is more fun to root for the underdog. You have to suspect that "small school" fans are chagrined by this year's results, particularly since Arizona, their poster child for the undeserving bid that was stolen from a smaller school, is still standing. With results like the past couple of years, these fans can probably expect more bias towards the major conference schools for the at-large bids (which is good news for Northwestern, I guess).
Below is a continuation of the Round 1 Analysis I posted a couple of days ago...
Actual Predicted Difference
Round 2 (based on Round 1 results and seeds)
BgE 5-1 5-1 +0
B12 3-3 3-3 +0
ACC 2-1 2-1 +0
B10 2-2 1-3 +1
P10 1-4 1-4 +0
SEC 0-1 0-1 +0
Conclusion? Round 2 went largely to plan. I suppose that the Big 10 outperformed, but that is a bit of a stretch as the +1 is due to 5 Purdue beating 4 Washington, not exactly a stunner.
Another way to look at the tourney results so far is that 14 of the top 16 seeds made it to the Sweet 16. The two crashers are Purdue and 12 Arizona (4 Wake Forest flamed out in the first round to Cleveland St). I guess this suggests that the Big Ten has done slightly better than expected while the ACC has done worse (see my Round 1 analysis, plus WF's absence from long weekend #2 of the tourney). The Big XII and Pac 10 have done slightly better than expected primarily because of their Round 1 results. Again -- Ho hum.
I have to say that I was uber-impressed with Memphis. They look like an NBA team again with their length on the perimeter and girth down on the blocks. Weren't they decimated by NBA defections after last year's loss in the national championship game (which reminds me --Calipari is such a bonehead for allowing Kansas to hoist a three to send the game into OT)? It is impressive that they could reload so quickly. Thad Matta is good at stocking his roster with elite athletes, but it seems Calipari has outdone even him.
Why have the last couple of years gone more or less according to plan? Why hasn't a George Mason come out of the woodwork to captivate the college basketball nation? I am of the opinion that this is just part of the randomness of college basketball and athletics more generally (some sports are more random than others, but that is neither here nor there). What we have seen the past couple of years are simply a couple of observations in which things went according to plan. I don't think there is any trend here, and the chances of next year going "mad" is just as likely as it was this year, last year, or in all the years since the rules for the entry into the NBA changed (one of the key exogenous variables that I think does affect NCAA teams differently -- there are others but this is the biggest recent shock to the system -- the economy may be another if things continue to go down the crapper).
I will say that I find the results disappointing since it is more fun to root for the underdog. You have to suspect that "small school" fans are chagrined by this year's results, particularly since Arizona, their poster child for the undeserving bid that was stolen from a smaller school, is still standing. With results like the past couple of years, these fans can probably expect more bias towards the major conference schools for the at-large bids (which is good news for Northwestern, I guess).
Below is a continuation of the Round 1 Analysis I posted a couple of days ago...
Actual Predicted Difference
Round 2 (based on Round 1 results and seeds)
BgE 5-1 5-1 +0
B12 3-3 3-3 +0
ACC 2-1 2-1 +0
B10 2-2 1-3 +1
P10 1-4 1-4 +0
SEC 0-1 0-1 +0
Conclusion? Round 2 went largely to plan. I suppose that the Big 10 outperformed, but that is a bit of a stretch as the +1 is due to 5 Purdue beating 4 Washington, not exactly a stunner.
Another way to look at the tourney results so far is that 14 of the top 16 seeds made it to the Sweet 16. The two crashers are Purdue and 12 Arizona (4 Wake Forest flamed out in the first round to Cleveland St). I guess this suggests that the Big Ten has done slightly better than expected while the ACC has done worse (see my Round 1 analysis, plus WF's absence from long weekend #2 of the tourney). The Big XII and Pac 10 have done slightly better than expected primarily because of their Round 1 results. Again -- Ho hum.
I have to say that I was uber-impressed with Memphis. They look like an NBA team again with their length on the perimeter and girth down on the blocks. Weren't they decimated by NBA defections after last year's loss in the national championship game (which reminds me --Calipari is such a bonehead for allowing Kansas to hoist a three to send the game into OT)? It is impressive that they could reload so quickly. Thad Matta is good at stocking his roster with elite athletes, but it seems Calipari has outdone even him.
21 March 2009
NCAAs Round 1 Analysis
It is a common pastime for fans to look at results in the NCAAs as an indicator of conference strength. I am no different. Below is a comparison of actual first round results by major conference compared to predicted results (by seed).
Actual Predicted Difference
Round 1
B12 6-0 5-1 +1
BgE 6-1 7-0 -1
P10 5-1 4-2 +1
B10 4-3 4-3 +0
ACC 3-4 6-1 -3
SEC 1-2 1-2 +0
Round 2 (based on Round 1 results and seeds)
BgE ??? 5-1 ??
B12 ??? 3-3 ??
ACC ??? 2-1 ??
B10 ??? 1-3 ??
P10 ??? 1-4 ??
SEC ??? 0-1 ??
Biggest conclusion from Round 1 -- ACC was overrated.
Actual Predicted Difference
Round 1
B12 6-0 5-1 +1
BgE 6-1 7-0 -1
P10 5-1 4-2 +1
B10 4-3 4-3 +0
ACC 3-4 6-1 -3
SEC 1-2 1-2 +0
Round 2 (based on Round 1 results and seeds)
BgE ??? 5-1 ??
B12 ??? 3-3 ??
ACC ??? 2-1 ??
B10 ??? 1-3 ??
P10 ??? 1-4 ??
SEC ??? 0-1 ??
Biggest conclusion from Round 1 -- ACC was overrated.
20 March 2009
At last some March Madness!
Last year was a dud. The first round this year was a dud until the Big Ten livened things up at the very end with a 2OT thriller in which 9 Siena squeaked by 8 Ohio State. Moments earlier 12 Wisconsin "upset" 5 FSU in OT in a battle between teams that lost to Northwestern this season. Perhaps after the game they swapped horror stories of their visits to Welsh-Ryan?
God how I've missed those times when CBS had to switch furiously back and forth between nail biters!
God how I've missed those times when CBS had to switch furiously back and forth between nail biters!
The crazy things talking heads say
The Seth Davis Edition (Part I of many):
What a tool this guy is. At the end of "CBS at the half", Gumbel asked Davis if Wisconsin had any chance of coming back against FSU when trailing 19-31 at half. Davis scoffed.
Wisconsin 61
FSU 59
Final OT
Of course, no mea culpa's after the game were offered by Seth. It's probably good that he didn't start the habit as it would get old fast with how often he is wrong. Good call, you ACC-apologist douchebag. Fock you, Seth!
PS: NCAA First Round Results:
Big Ten 4-3
ACC 3-4
Head-to-Head: Big Ten 2-0 (both "upsets")
What a tool this guy is. At the end of "CBS at the half", Gumbel asked Davis if Wisconsin had any chance of coming back against FSU when trailing 19-31 at half. Davis scoffed.
Wisconsin 61
FSU 59
Final OT
Of course, no mea culpa's after the game were offered by Seth. It's probably good that he didn't start the habit as it would get old fast with how often he is wrong. Good call, you ACC-apologist douchebag. Fock you, Seth!
PS: NCAA First Round Results:
Big Ten 4-3
ACC 3-4
Head-to-Head: Big Ten 2-0 (both "upsets")
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